As 2023 approaches, China's demographics are once again the focus of heated discussions. Through the long river of history, we have witnessed the ups and downs of demographic changes, which is not only a record of social development, but also a history of perseverance and struggle of the Chinese people. The following is a demographic analysis of this long history, with detailed data from 1929 to 2022.
During the turbulent two decades, wars were frequent, social unrest was frequent, and the accuracy of demographic data was challenged. Despite this, there is a high birth rate and a high death rate overall, with a population hovering around 450 million.
The founding of the People's Republic of China brought about social stability and a gradual improvement in the people's living standards. During this period, the birth rate increased markedly, the death rate decreased, and the net increase in population exceeded 100 million, bringing the total population to 647 million.
For three consecutive years, natural disasters affected economic development, resulting in a decline in births and an increase in deaths, with the total population declining for the first time in 1960.
The economy has gradually improved, and the strong compensatory births have led to another peak in the population, with a net increase of 157 million.
The implementation of the family planning policy has led to an orderly population growth, with a net increase of 135 million in 10 years.
Family planning measures have been further strengthened, but the number of births born in the "second birth peak" has gradually entered the reproductive age, and the number of births has rebounded again, with a net increase of 143 million.
The intensification of family planning, economic development, and changes in family attitudes have led to a steady decline in the birth rate. After 1994, the annual net increase in population was less than 10 million, and the population entered a stage of steady growth.
The implementation of the two-child policy led to a brief increase in the number of births in 2016 and 2017, but then the trend reversed.
The dividends released by the two-child policy have been exhausted, and the rising cost and declining fertility willingness have led to a decline in the number of births year by year. In 2022, the total population will once again experience negative growth.
In 2023, it is expected that the number of births will be below eight million, the number of deaths will exceed 11 million, and the total population will fall by 3 million. With the development of the economy, people's conception of childbearing has completely changed, and the birth rate will continue to decline. In 2050, the population is expected to stabilize at around 1.1 billion.
After the founding of the People's Republic of China, the number of births per year was more than 20 million, which made the number of deaths per year also exceed 20 million. In the future, the net loss of population will exceed 10 million, triggering reflections on the social structure and the carrying capacity of the country's land area. China is about to enter a new era, and we look forward to seeing a more stable and sustainable demographic development. Welcome to leave your views and discuss the future development of Chinese society.