On January 1, 2024, CRIC successively released some of the latest data and sales lists of the real estate market in December 2023. From the overall data, the market supply is slightly weak, with the supply of key 30 cities falling by 5% month-on-month, and the transaction volume showing a slight "tail-lifting", up 10% month-on-month. In December, the new policies of Beijing and Shanghai, the two first-tier cities, were implemented, involving the reduction of the down payment ratio, mortgage interest rate, and the identification standard of ordinary housing to boost the property market. On the whole, the effect of some urban policies continued to appear, superimposed at the end of the year enterprises to increase marketing efforts, some projects to focus on online signing, etc., the new housing market appeared a small "tail", but the transaction scale still fell by 21% year-on-year, the market adjustment trend has not changed, the year-on-year cumulative year-on-year turned negative, continuing to build the bottom of the market.
Most of the marketing efforts for the New Year's Day holiday in 2024 will continue to be at the pre-holiday sprint level, and the performance of the property market in various places is generally relatively flat. January ushered in the traditional marketing off-season before the Spring Festival, and the supply and marketing will remain low, and due to the low base in January 2023, the overall year-on-year growth may be flat or slightly decreased. In the short term, the real estate market is still under pressure to adjust.
Judging from the sales list, the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in December 2023 increased by 16% month-on-month and decreased by 35% year-on-year, still maintaining a high level in the year. The cumulative decline in performance during the year continued to expand, down 17% year-on-year. In 2023, the cumulative performance of nearly 70% of the top 100 real estate companies will decrease year-on-year, of which 31 will have a year-on-year decline of more than 30%, and 27 private real estate enterprises will account for it. The pattern of the top 100 real estate companies continues to be differentiated, with only 16 large-scale real estate companies with a full-caliber scale of more than 100 billion. The sales threshold of the top 100 real estate companies continued to move downward, and the thresholds of all echelons fell to the lowest in recent years.
The supply of key 30 cities is slightly weak, and new housing transactions show a slight "tail"
At the market level, according to CRIC statistics, the supply of key 30 cities in December 2023 decreased slightly by 5% month-on-month, and the supply side was slightly weak. Under the favorable new deal, superimposed by enterprises to increase marketing efforts at the end of the year, and some projects were centralized online signing, the new housing market showed a slight "tail", up 10% month-on-month and 21% year-on-year, and the year-on-year cumulative turned negative, continuing to build a bottoming market.
On the whole, under the favorable new policy, the first-tier cities concentrated on the volume at the end of the year, and most of the second- and third-tier cities maintained a growth trend. Transactions in first-tier cities in December increased by 21% month-on-month, decreased by 10% year-on-year, and decreased slightly by 2% year-on-year for the whole year. Guangzhou continued the weak recovery trend, Shenzhen issued a loose new policy at the end of November, the policy effect is decreasing, Beijing and Shanghai in the middle of the month to reduce the down payment, cut the interest rate, adjust the standard of ordinary housing and other good new policies landed, in the short term to the market to boost the effect is significant. Under the policy combination, the second- and third-tier cities maintained a growth trend on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline or a small increase. The overall performance can be basically divided into three categories: 1. Continued heat - Chengdu, Xi'an, and Hangzhou, mainly driven by the continuous fermentation of the new deal + the centralized entry of high-quality supply into the market. 2. Continuation of weak recovery - Zhengzhou and Tianjin accelerated the exchange of price for volume, and continued the weak recovery market this year, and the overall transaction scale increased by more than 2% compared with last year. Suzhou, Ningbo, Jinan and other cities can only improve the volume, and the decentralization of improvement projects in the central urban area is significantly better than the rigid demand in the periphery, and the transaction has been steadily corrected. 3. Continue to build the bottom - Fuzhou, Jiaxing, Xuzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and other transactions are still bottoming out, the demand is seriously overdrawn, housing prices have fallen again and again, and time is still needed to exchange space.
Recently, the policy has been continuously optimized and released, and the regulator has supported the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and boosted market confidence. However, it will take time for home buyers' market confidence and industry expectations to recover, and the sluggish sales trend will be difficult to reverse in the short term. The number of hot cities and hot projects will continue to decline, and the core first- and second-tier cities will benefit from the overall advantages and the effect of the new deal, and the market will still be able to "keep warm", while the third- and fourth-tier cities that lack population advantages and have a weak economic foundation will also face a long period of low adjustment.
The year-on-year decline in the performance of the top 100 real estate companies continued to expand, and the thresholds of all echelons fell to the lowest in recent years
At the level of real estate enterprises, according to the latest statistics from CRIC, the monthly trading amount of the TOP100 real estate companies in December 2023 will be 451.29 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 34.6%, and the year-on-year decline will expand and remain at a high level.
Data source: CRIC, compiled by Titanium Media
From January to December 2023, the sales volume of the TOP100 real estate enterprises was 5,404.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%, and the year-on-year decline expanded again. Sales in the first quarter ushered in a "small spring", with a slight year-on-year increase of 3% under the concentrated release of demand in the post-epidemic period. The performance of the remaining quarters was lower than the same period in previous years. At present, the real estate market continues to be under pressure, and the overall situation is still in a period of low adjustment. Although major real estate companies increased their marketing efforts at the end of the year, the recovery momentum of the property market was insufficient, and the sales side did not improve significantly.
Data source: CRIC, compiled by Titanium Media
According to the latest statistics from CRIC, the sales threshold of the top 100 real estate companies in 2023 will continue to move downward, and the thresholds of all echelons will drop to the lowest in recent years. Judging from the changes in the sales thresholds of different echelons of real estate enterprises, the sales transaction amount threshold of the top 10 real estate enterprises decreased by 3.5% year-on-year to 161.37 billion yuan, the TOP20 threshold decreased by 25.4% to 59.9 billion yuan, and the TOP30 threshold decreased by 25.2% to 37.94 billion yuan. The threshold for the TOP50 was lowered by 20.9% to RMB23.48 billion, and the threshold for the TOP100 was lowered by 4.9% to RMB11.04 billion.
Data source: CRIC, compiled by Titanium Media
In addition, in 2023, only 16 large-scale real estate companies will have a full-caliber scale of more than 100 billion, and the number of 100 billion real estate enterprises will further decrease. Since 2023, the pattern of the top 100 real estate enterprises has continued to diverge, with central state-owned enterprises and some high-quality private enterprises being more resilient, and the competitiveness of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises still being insufficient. Specifically, the number of enterprises with a year-on-year decrease in the cumulative performance of the top 100 in 2023 accounts for nearly 70%, of which 31 have a year-on-year decline of more than 30%, and private real estate enterprises account for 27.
Data source: CRIC, compiled by Titanium Media
Data source: CRIC, compiled by Titanium Media
According to CRIC's latest list of cumulative trading sales of real estate companies from January to December 2023, Poly, Vanke, and Greentown China ranked the top three respectively, and the cumulative trading amount exceeded 300 billion. State-owned enterprises are still the main force at the top of the list, and it can also be seen from the TOP20 real estate companies that the cumulative year-on-year increase in the amount of transactions from January to December is basically all state-owned enterprises or high-quality private enterprises, with an increase of 1%-13%, maintaining high resilience. Under the market adjustment, some real estate companies have shown strong resilience and repair capabilities, actively seized the market window opportunities, and promoted sales decentralization, such as China Overseas Real Estate, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, C&D Real Estate, Huafa Co., Ltd., Greentown China, etc., all achieved year-on-year growth. Although the large real estate enterprises led by Country Garden are at the top of the list, they are still decreasing year-on-year, with Country Garden falling by more than 5%, and the competitiveness of the rest of the small and medium-sized private enterprises is becoming more and more insufficient.
Data source: CRIC, compiled by Titanium Media
Data caliber: based on enterprise trading, including agent construction
In December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking down", and in the middle of the year, Beijing and Shanghai introduced favorable new policies, including reducing down payments and interest rates, and optimizing the criteria for identifying ordinary houses, so as to boost market confidence. Superimposed on the year-end sprint and concentration of real estate enterprises, the end of the year ushered in the "tail", but the overall market adjustment trend has not changed. January 2024 will usher in the traditional marketing off-season before the Spring Festival, and the supply and marketing will remain low, and due to the low base in January 2023, the overall year-on-year growth may be flat or slightly decreased.
Looking ahead to 2024, the key to market stabilization is the change in residents' expectations and the strength of policy support. In 2024, the policies at both ends of real estate supply and demand are expected to continue to exert force, but the policy still needs to be processed. The real estate market may maintain a recovery momentum, the business environment will remain full of uncertainties, and real estate companies need to prepare coping strategies to ensure the safety of liquidity. (This article was first published on Titanium Media APP, author|Zhao Chenhan, editor|Liu Yangxue)
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