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Introduction:
Since the Abe administration took office in 2012, Japan's annual defense budget has increased dramatically year after year, and its defense spending has been rising year by year, attracting widespread attention from the international community. Data shows that over the past 10 years, Japan's defense spending has grown at the highest rate in the world.
Experts pointed out that there are complex strategic considerations behind Japan's increased defense spending, which are not only objective factors such as the pressure of the US-Japan alliance and changes in the regional environment, but also involve the political ambitions of the Tokyo authorities to break the post-war system. This phenomenon will have an important impact on the strategic pattern and arms competition in the Asia-Pacific region.
1. The United States pressured Japan to increase its defense investment
For decades, Japan's long-standing defense spending of about 1 percent of GDP has been criticized by the United States. "The Americans had a large number of troops stationed in Japan and undertook the heavy responsibility of defending Japan, but Japan was stingy with defense investment. John, an American think tank scholar, commented. The real catalyst for a change in Japan's defense spending was Trump's explicit demand that Japan achieve 2% of GDP in defense spending.
"There is a clear similarity between this and the United States' demand that NATO members spend on defense. John analyzed. In addition, in the context of pursuing the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", the United States further expects Japan to play a more active role in regional affairs, which undoubtedly makes Tokyo have to deal with the pressure of military spending.
Second, the growth of China's military strength has caused concern to Japan
Over the past decade, with the rapid growth of China's military spending of more than 10 percent per year, Japan has become strategically uneasy. Naoki Yamamoto, a Japanese defense expert, said, "Japan's highly dependent U.S. advantage is being compressed by China's catch-up, causing profound changes in the balance of power between China and Japan."
At the same time, in response to the Ukrainian crisis, Russia's defense industry has been working overtime at full speed to produce various weapons and equipment for many years. According to Japan's Sankei Shimbun, former Defense Minister Masaki Kobayashi warned that Russia is very likely to break through the peak of Cold War-era military power by 2025. Faced with the pressure of waiting for the enemy from the left and right, Japan feels that the situation is grim and can only choose to expand defense investment to deal with it.
3. North Korea's missile threat exacerbates Japan's sense of insecurity
Despite the close U.S.-Japan alliance, Japan's strategic concerns have been fueled by the accelerated pace of North Korea's nuclear and missile weapons development. Japanese scholar Akira Tanaka pointed out that once North Korea acquires a full-scale nuclear strike capability, it will be difficult for the Tokyo authorities to trust Washington's extended deterrence. Former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tachibana Takashi expressed similar concerns: "We cannot rule out the possibility that the United States will sacrifice Japan to save its homeland in the future." From this perspective, it is not surprising that Japan has chosen to strengthen its own defense capabilities as a hedge.
Fourth, political circles and people support Japan's rearmament
Since the Abe administration took office, discussions around revising the pacifist constitution and getting rid of the postwar system have continued to heat up, providing a political opportunity for the expansion of Japan's defense forces. Japanese writer Masahiko Fujiwara analyzed: "The nationalist sentiment that is rising in domestic public opinion is pushing the political circles to take a tough stance."
Haruko Hosoda, a political leader in the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, also called for "Japan to break the post-war shackles and rebuild a normal national defense system." With the concerted efforts of all parties, a steady increase in Japan's defense spending is a foregone conclusion. Some netizens said: There is a practical need for Japan's defense spending to increase, but the blind expansion of arms allocation will inevitably trigger regional arms competition, and East Asia is likely to repeat the history of the Cold War in the end.
Some netizens also said: In view of the complexity of the geopolitical environment of the island country, it is understandable for Japan to strengthen its self-defense capacity, but it is more necessary to prevent politicians from using nationalist sentiments to promote their political goals. Some netizens said: Considering the problems left over from history, Japan's military expansion will inevitably touch the nerves of East Asian countries, and it is suggested that Tokyo should continue to hold high the banner of peace and maintain an appropriate level of defense strength.
On the whole, the current momentum of rapid increase in Japan's defense spending is not a whim, but is driven by a combination of factors, which has become an irreversible general trend. In view of its potential impact on regional strategic stability, it is necessary to strengthen monitoring and control to prevent the emergence of excessive and vicious competition.
At the same time, Japan should also pay attention to balancing military needs and strategic constraints, and maintain its image as a peaceful power while developing its defense capabilities, so as to avoid misunderstanding and backlash. Only by building broad strategic mutual trust can we build a community with a shared future for lasting peace in East Asia.
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