In 2024, the good days of semiconductor people are coming?

In the downward cycle, keywords such as layoffs, order cuts, and bankruptcy cancellations run through the cloudy 2023.

The old year is gone, and the new year begins. With a wave of our hands, we bid farewell to the past and rushed towards 2024 with beautiful hopes for the future. Although the future represents the unknown and has various uncertainties, in the development process of the industry, the industry trend is traceable.

So, in 2024, which is full of imagination, what new changes, new trends and new opportunities will there be in the semiconductor industry?

Vol

The market will grow by 20%

Recently, the latest research by the International Data Corporation (IDC) showed that global semiconductor revenue in 2023 fell by 12.0% year-on-year to $526.5 billion, but higher than the agency's estimate of $519 billion in September. It is expected to grow 20.2% year-on-year to $633 billion in 2024, up from the previous forecast of $626 billion.

According to the agency's forecasts, the visibility of semiconductor growth will increase as long-term inventory adjustments in the two largest segments, PCs and smartphones, fade, and inventory levels in the automotive and industrial sectors are expected to return to normal levels in the second half of 2024 as electrification continues to drive semiconductor content growth over the next decade.

It is worth noting that the market segments that have a recovery trend or growth momentum in 2024 are smartphones, PCs, servers, automobiles, and the AI market.

  Smartphones

After nearly three years of downturn, the smartphone market has finally shown a recovery momentum from the third quarter of 2023.

According to Counterpoint data, global smartphone sales increased by 5% year-on-year in October 2023 after 27 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. Third-party market research institutions such as IDC predict that China's smartphone market shipments will increase year-on-year for the first time since 2021 in 2024.

In the Chinese market, whether it is Huawei Mate 60 series or Xiaomi 14, they have greatly attracted the attention of the market and achieved good results, becoming the popular mobile phone of the year.

Source | @华为中国微博

Canalys forecasts full-year smartphone shipments to reach 1.13 billion units in 2023 and is expected to grow 4% to 1.17 billion units by 2024. The smartphone market is expected to ship 1.25 billion units by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 2.6% (2023 to 2027).

Sanyam Chaurasia, senior analyst at Canalys, said, "The rebound in smartphones in 2024 will be driven by emerging markets, where smartphones remain an integral part of connectivity, entertainment and productivity. Chaurasia said one-third of smartphones shipped in 2024 will come from the Asia-Pacific region, up from just one in five in 2017. The region is also set to be one of the fastest-growing regions, driven by demand recovery in India, Southeast Asia and South Asia, at an annual rate of 6%.

It is worth mentioning that the current smartphone industry chain is highly mature, the stock competition is fierce, and at the same time, scientific and technological innovation, industrial upgrading, talent training and other aspects are driving the smartphone industry to highlight its social value.

  personal computer

According to TrendForce's latest estimates, global notebook shipments will reach 167 million units in 2023, down 10.2% year-on-year. However, as inventory pressure eases, the global market is expected to return to a healthy supply and demand cycle in 2024, and the overall notebook market is expected to ship 172 million units in 2024, an annual increase of 3.2%. The main growth drivers are the replacement demand in the terminal business market, the expansion of Chromebooks and gaming laptops.

TrendForce also mentioned the state of AI PC development in the report. The agency believes that due to the high cost of upgrading software and hardware related to AI PCs, the initial development will focus on high-end business users and content creators. The emergence of AI PCs will not necessarily stimulate the demand for additional PC purchases, and most of them will naturally migrate to AI PC devices along with the business replacement process in 2024.

For consumers, most of the cloud AI applications that can be provided by PC devices can meet the needs of daily life and entertainment, and if there is no AI killer application in the short term, it will be difficult to quickly increase the popularity of consumer AI PCs if they propose to upgrade the AI experience. However, in the long run, the adoption rate of consumer AI PCs can still be expected after the application possibilities of more diverse AI tools are developed in the future, and the price threshold is lowered.

  Servers & Data Centers

According to Trendforce's estimates, AI servers (including those equipped with GPUS, FPGAs, ASICs, etc.) will be shipped more than 1.2 million units in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 37.7%, accounting for 9% of the total server shipments, and will grow by more than 38% in 2024, accounting for more than 12% of AI servers.

With the development of chatbots (chatbots) and generative AI in various application fields, cloud solution providers such as Microsoft, Google, and AWS (Amazon) have increased their AI investment, driving up the demand for AI servers.

From 2023 to 2024, the demand for AI servers will be driven by the active investment of cloud solution providers, and after 2024, it will be extended to more application fields, and industry players will invest in the development of professional AI models and software services, driving the growth of edge AI servers equipped with medium and low-end GPUs, and the average annual growth rate of edge AI server shipments is expected to exceed 20% from 2023 to 2026.

  New energy vehicles

With the continuous advancement of the New Four Modernizations, the demand for chips in the automotive industry is increasing.

From basic power system control to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), autonomous driving technology, and automotive entertainment systems, there is a huge reliance on electronic chips. According to data provided by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the number of automotive chips required for traditional fuel vehicles is 600-700, the number of automotive chips required for electric vehicles will increase to 1,600 per vehicle, and the demand for chips for more advanced smart cars is expected to increase to 3,000 per vehicle.

Relevant data show that in 2022, the global automotive chip market will be about 310 billion yuan. In the Chinese market, where the new energy trend is strongest, China's vehicle sales reached 4.58 trillion yuan, and the scale of China's automotive chip market reached 121.9 billion yuan. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales of automobiles in mainland China will reach 31 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Among them, passenger car sales were about 26.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 11.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%.

In addition, the penetration rate of intelligence in new energy vehicles is also increasing. In terms of product concepts in 2024, intelligent capabilities will be an important direction emphasized by most new products. In 2024, the joint involution of car companies and the intelligent supply chain of automobiles will start a cost-effective war of intelligent automobiles in the price range of 10-200,000 yuan.

This also means that the demand for chips in the automotive market next year will still increase significantly.

Vol.2

What are the industry technology trends?

Innovation is the first driving force to lead development.

For example, the emergence of ChatGPT at the beginning of the year has detonated the global pursuit of generative artificial intelligence (AIGC), and at the same time brought great opportunities to the market segments such as AI chips, GPUs, and storage.

At a time when the industry as a whole may see a clear recovery trend, what can we expect in terms of technological innovation?

  AI chips

AI will continue to be an important keyword throughout 2023 and will continue to be an important keyword in 2024.

Some institutions predict that the market for chips used to perform artificial intelligence (AI) workloads is growing at a rate of more than 20% per year. The AI chip market will reach $53.4 billion in 2023, an increase of 20.9% from 2022, and will increase by 25.6% to $67.1 billion in 2024. By 2027, AI chip revenue is expected to more than double the market size in 2023, reaching $119.4 billion.

Gartner analysts point out that the large-scale deployment of custom AI chips in the future will replace the current dominant chip architecture (discrete GPU) to accommodate a variety of AI-based workloads, especially those based on generative AI technology.

  2.5/3D advanced packaging market

In recent years, with the evolution of chip manufacturing technology, the iteration progress of "Moore's Law" has slowed down, resulting in a sharp increase in the marginal cost of chip performance growth. While Moore's Law is slowing down, the demand for computing is skyrocketing. With the rapid development of emerging fields such as cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving, the performance requirements for computing chips are getting higher and higher.

Under multiple challenges and trends, the semiconductor industry has begun to explore new development paths. Among them, advanced packaging has become an important track, which plays an important role in improving chip integration, shortening chip distance, accelerating the speed of electrical connection between chips, and optimizing performance.

2.5D itself is a dimension that does not exist in the objective world, because its integration density surpasses 2D, but it does not reach the integration density of 3D, so it is called 2.5D. In the field of advanced packaging, 2.5D refers to the integration method of using an interposer, which is currently mostly made of silicon materials, taking advantage of its mature process and high-density interconnection characteristics.

Unlike 3D packaging technology and 2.5D, which are high-density interconnects through interposers, 3D refers to high-density interconnects chips directly through TSV (through-silicon via technology) without interposers.

IDC predicts that the 2.5/3D packaging market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2023 to 2028, making it an area of high concern in the semiconductor packaging and test market in the future.

  HBM

One H100 chip, H100 die occupies the core position, there are three HBM stacks on each side, and the combined area of six HBMs is equivalent to that of H100 die. These six mediocre memory chips are one of the "culprits" of the H100 supply shortage.

HBM takes on a portion of the memory in the GPU. Unlike traditional DDR memory, HBM essentially stacks multiple DRAM memories vertically, which not only increases the memory capacity, but also controls the power consumption and chip area of the memory, and reduces the space occupied inside the package. In addition, HBM achieves higher bandwidth by significantly increasing the number of pins to achieve a memory bus of 1024 bits wide per HBM stack based on conventional DDR memory.

AI training has extremely high requirements for data throughput and data transmission latency, so there is also a high demand for HBM.

In 2020, ultra-bandwidth solutions such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, and HBM3) began to emerge. After entering 2023, the crazy expansion of the generative AI market represented by ChatGPT has not only increased the demand for AI servers, but also driven the sales of high-end products such as HBM3 to rise.

Guojin Securities predicts that the global DRAM market is expected to reach 59.6 billion in 2023. According to Omdia research, the annual growth rate of HBM market revenue is expected to soar by 52% from 2023 to 2027, and its share of DRAM market revenue is expected to increase from 10% in 2023 to nearly 20% in 2027. Moreover, the price of HBM3 is about 5-6 times that of standard DRAM chips.

  Satellite communications

For the average user, this feature is dispensable, but for those who love extreme sports, or work in harsh conditions such as deserts, this technology will be very useful and even "life-saving".

Satellite communication is becoming the next battlefield targeted by mobile phone manufacturers. At present, Huawei, Apple, Honor, OPPO, etc. have officially announced that they will be equipped with satellite communication technology in the new generation of flagship models, and have announced new developments.

Gao Yuyang of Shanxi Securities said that the direct connection of mobile phones to satellites can quickly improve the market penetration rate of satellite communications in a short period of time, drive the performance growth of relevant hardware suppliers and service providers, and accelerate the accumulation of technology in the mainland satellite industry, which is expected to become the main application mode of satellite Internet in the future. According to data from the National Academy of Information and Communications Technology, by 2027, the mainland satellite communication terminal market will reach 1.02 billion US dollars

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