Cook brought a new cross-era product, MR headset vision pro, industry insiders call it the ceiling of the AR/VR field, with it, no need for a controller, only need to operate with hands and eyes, through the three-dimensional interactive interface, only need to move your eyes or make sound, you can easily use hundreds of thousands of applications, including chatting, watching movies and playing games. It's worth mentioning that the real world is also seamless when you use the headset, which means that the limitations of VR glasses in the past are broken. The reason for such high performance is the performance improvement brought by Apple's 2 chips, the built-in M2 is not enough, and a new R1 chip has been created, consisting of 12 cameras and 5 sensors and 6 microphones.
Pay attention to your own wealth and finance, and gain insight into the industrial pattern.
What is the epoch-making significance of the MR headset?
Apple said that the launch of this product marks that mankind has entered the era of "spatial computing", which is a combination of virtual reality and consumer electronics, known as the most advanced electronic device to date, with more than 5,000 patents for this product, and Apple has conducted research for up to 8 years.
"Macs have brought us into the era of personal computing, iPhones have brought us into the era of mobile computing, and MR headsets have brought us into the era of spatial computing," Cook said.
AI needs a disruptive product, the first generation is a PC, the second generation is a mobile phone, or stay in AI PC, AI mobile phone, or micro-innovation, not to talk about subversion, nor is it conducive to the further outbreak of the AI era. Because industry insiders recommend: MR vision pro is likely to be a disruptive product that will detonate the AI era.
Pay attention to your own wealth and finance, and gain insight into the industrial pattern.
What is the market capacity of the MR headset vision pro?
We all know that the price of MR headset is equivalent to 25,000 yuan, although its powerful high-tech has won a round of applause from the technology circle, but the capital circle does not buy it, as soon as the price is announced, Apple's stock price fell in response. At the end of the day, except for the price, there's nothing wrong with it.
Although this price is several times higher than the headset on the general market, Apple has considerable confidence that it will be officially launched in North America in January 2024, with 400,000 units in stock for the first time, and according to Apple's official estimates, the expected sales in the first year will directly reach 1 million units. Sales are expected to reach 10 million units in 2025. Whether we can achieve such sales, we will continue to analyze:
In order to further increase sales, Apple communicated with the supply chain for MR second- and third-generation products, and further promoted cost and price reduction, so as to obtain greater sales.
Let's take a look at the reactions of other listed companies:
METE secretly develops high-end products that benchmark vision pro;
Samsung canceled the original VR product launch plan and instead developed products that benchmarked the vision pro.
PI-CO canceled PI-CO5 and instead developed a high-end series of velvet to benchmark VISION PRO products;
vivo's largest investment in technology in the future will be in the field of MR and humanoid robots, as well as Xiaomi, Honor, oppo, Meizu, etc.
Even Huawei is shouting: it will launch very leading, innovative, and disruptive products in 2024, and the market speculates that it is likely to be MR products.
When the above technology giants have to benchmark the vision pro and make MR headsets, it is obvious that the vision pro has become a benchmark product.
Pay attention to your own wealth and finance, and gain insight into the industrial pattern.
What opportunities will MR headsets bring to listed companies, and how should investors lay out?
The logic of general market speculation is to start with the material side of the hardware first, and then to the content side.
Let's start with the hardware:
The listing of the headset has once again entered the market's field of vision for the Micro OLED screen, although the price of this screen is extremely high, but it will become the mainstream configuration of the future headset, at present, there are about 5 companies with production capacity in the world, of which only Sony is not from the mainland.
But now Apple's upcoming headset uses Sony's screen, Sony's screen is obviously more expensive than that of the mainland, and the output is very small, which obviously cannot meet the needs of mass production, and now the price of the headset is 25,000 yuan, whether the sales in China can surge, the price is also one thing. If the headset is to be mass-produced, and the cost is to be reduced, then there is a way to go, which is to increase the number of suppliers in China. China's panel industry welcomes opportunities.
It is very unlikely that you will be able to switch to a different screen, as the display effect will be greatly reduced.
Why does MR headset choose Micro OLED screen intelligently?
The screen of the MR headset is a miniature screen, to think of a realistic effect, it must be that the more pixels, the better, the PPI of the Micro OLED screen is much higher than the previous AMOLED and FastLCD screens, more than 3000 pixels can be distributed immediately on a one-inch screen, and the resolution of a single eye can easily reach 4K to 8K. FastLCD doesn't reach half of it. So you can only use Micro OLED screens.
At present, the companies that produce Micro OLED screens in the world are:
The screens of the United States and France are mainly used in the military industry, and the only foreign companies that are making consumer-grade screens are Sony, and Apple's MR headset uses Sony's screen.
Chinese companies are currently on the 12-inch OLED wafer, there are two unlisted companies that have formed production capacity, and there is a listed panel giant, there are not a few companies with expansion plans in the next three years, according to the cost control ability of Chinese enterprises, Chinese companies are extremely hopeful to occupy the commanding heights of the headset screen in the future.
According to the consultant's prediction, the future market size of Micro OLED screens will rise from the current $560 million to $1.394 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of nearly three times and a compound annual growth rate of more than 60%.
If the shipment of MR headsets can exceed 10 million units in the future, according to the cost of a headset screen of 300-500 US dollars, Micro OLED will become a huge market of 10 billion US dollars.
The industrial chain of Micro OLED is not only screen manufacturing, but also silicon-based backplanes, semiconductor materials and special equipment.
But the cost of the screen accounts for 40% of the total cost of the headset. This is the hardware side. Therefore, the panel listed companies that have recently risen by 8 boards in a row. Generally, it was the concept of crazy speculation at the beginning, and other listed companies also said: the company only has the production capacity of OLED modules, but there have been no orders for OLED products in the past year. Then comes the performance.
After the short speculation of hardware, the next step is the AI content side.
This is also the mixed reality concept plate and the virtual reality concept plate ushered in the rising tide last Friday. The specific content will be shared next time.
Pay attention to your own wealth and finance, and gain insight into the industrial pattern.