In 2023, an average of 7.0467 yuan will be needed to exchange 1 US dollar, a depreciation of 4.55%
Based on the data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the high point of the central parity exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar in 2023 is on January 16, when it needs 6.7135 yuan to exchange for 1 US dollar, and the low point is on June 30, when the ratio of the yuan to the US dollar is 7.2258.
Quarterly, in the first quarter of this year, the average exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar was 6.8476, that is, it took 6.8476 yuan to exchange for 1 US dollar, a year-on-year depreciation of 7.26%.
In the second quarter, the average exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar was 7.0106, depreciating by 5.65%, the average exchange rate in the third quarter was 7.1728, depreciating by 4.85, and the average exchange rate in the fourth quarter was 7.1436, depreciating by 0.78% compared with 7.0879 in the same period last year.
In 2023, the RMB will depreciate by 4.55%
Using the annual data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Nansheng calculated that the average exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar in 2023 is 7.0467, compared with 6.7261 in the previous year, depreciating by 4.55%.
The central parity exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar showed a "gradual increase in depreciation" in each quarter of 2022, and the opposite is true in 2023 - the depreciation of the exchange rate gradually narrowed in each quarter, especially at the end of the year, when there was a wave of recovery momentum, falling below the 7.10 mark.
The Fed's interest rate hike is coming to an end, the weakening of the US dollar has eased the external pressure on the RMB, coupled with the acceleration of China's economic recovery momentum and the increase in demand for foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year, the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar has hit a new high in the last six months, and this rebound momentum is expected to continue into 2024.
According to the research report of Ping An Securities, the pressure of RMB depreciation has been greatly eased, and the impact of China's economic "expectation gap" or narrowing, as well as the impact of good external demand and export prospects, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to gradually return to the range of 6.8 to 7.0 in 2024.
China's GDP is estimated at $17.95 trillion
In a previous article, Nansheng mentioned that the preliminary GDP of the mainland in 2022 is 121.02 trillion yuan, and the real economic growth rate in 2023 is expected to be in the range of 5.2% to 5.3% - this growth rate needs to exclude the factors of changes in the prices of goods and services.
In inflationary countries, the total size of the economy "needs to be based on the real growth rate of the economy and then to be adjusted for inflation", but in deflationary countries, it is necessary to "exclude the effect of falling prices" from the real rate of economic development.
In other words, the size of China's economy in 2023 will "increase by less than 5.3% in nominal terms." If we extrapolate the development trend in the first three quarters of this year, we can preliminarily conclude that the scale of the mainland's economy will be about 126.7 trillion yuan, about 17.98 trillion US dollars.
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the confirmed GDP value for 2022 - lowering the GDP from 121.02 trillion yuan in the preliminary statistics to about 120.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of more than 500 billion yuan.
China's GDP in US dollar terms will further narrow to $17.9 trillion to $17.98 trillion, taking the median value, which is expected to be around $17.95 trillion.
In 2023, China's actual economic improvement is expected to remain second only to India among the world's largest economies, and stronger than that of the United States and Europe. Unfortunately, the renminbi has depreciated by 4.55%, coupled with the fact that prices are struggling on the verge of deflation, while inflation is high in the United States and Europe.
After China's GDP is converted into dollars, the gap with the United States will further widen in 2023. When the economic size of the 27 EU countries is converted into US dollars, it will also surpass the mainland. Netizens, can this year (2024) reverse this decline? This article is written by Nansheng, please do not reprint or plagiarize without authorization!