Tiger Sniff Note: Almost every year, we look back at the old year and look forward to the new year, year after year. 2023 is still a complicated year that is difficult to summarize in words.
This year, we are back to the neglected routine. We fall in love with Citywalk, go to concerts, go to the cinema, and find the joy of the moment in the midst of uncertainty.
This year, we have witnessed the treacherous and changeable international situation, and experienced the "fate gear" of the stock market and the property market.
This year, we haven't stopped thinking. We are trapped in the rapid changes of the world, exploring how to coexist with AI and ask for answers to life under the ChatGPT algorithm.
Facing the upcoming 2024, we are full of anticipation, and at the same time feel lost and anxious.
But Zweig tells us in The World of Yesterday that "only those who have experienced light and darkness, peace and war, prosperity and decay are truly lived." ”
Review and outlook is the tradition of Tiger Sniff, and every year at this time, Tiger Sniff will look back on the past with industry authors, and this article is the second article.
Editor|Wu Danning, Wang Zizhong
Header image: Visual China
2023 has been a changeable year. At the beginning of the year, we welcomed the recovery, in the middle of the year, we faced unexpected opportunities and challenges, and at the end of the year, we said goodbye and looked back with emotion.
2024 is coming as scheduled.
What will happen in 2024? Will it be better or worse? Philosophers tell us, "Everything flows, nothing dwells." "The only constant in this world is change. In the face of change, we should not question, we must understand the change and become the change.
The more upheaval we are in, the more valuable it is to think calmly. At this moment when 2023 is coming to an end, we invited 37 tiger sniffing authors to have a serious chat on the following three questions:
1. What is the current industry?
2. What will be the biggest opportunity for your industry in the coming years?
3. Recommend a company that you think is undervalued and explain why.
In 2023, the wave of artificial intelligence has swept the world, and there is a steady stream of discussions about it. Will our society benefit more from AI, or will it hurt more? Most people see artificial intelligence as a new opportunity for the industry, and how to make better use of artificial intelligence will be what we should focus on.
"According to the mainstream parlance, the biggest opportunity in the Internet industry is AI. But AI is a tool and a means, not an end or an end. In addition, from the current point of view, whether it is the underlying large model or the fine-tuning based on the open source large model, the cost of 'making tools' (doing AI) is obviously ridiculously high. Therefore, 'using tools' may be a better opportunity than 'making tools'. ”
- Commenting on the corpse
At the moment of information overload, many authors who are deeply involved in the industry media believe that in-depth and good content will become an important moat for the industry.
"With the maturity of the new generation of social media (Douyin, Xiaohongshu, Channels), the use of content for online customer acquisition has become a prominent science. In the foreseeable future, business competition is serious, and the craft of 'making content' is a necessary marketing tool for businessmen from all walks of life. ”
——老钱日日谈（播客"面基"主播）
In 2023, the propensity of mass consumption has changed a lot. A Tiger Sniff author believes that social media brings a niche psychological identity, and personalized travel needs will become an opportunity for the development of the industry.
"The rise of small groups represented by 'super fits'. The era of large groups is over, and tour guides and KOLs with personal personality media are giving tours a 'sense of uniqueness', and the premiums that come with this are very high, and there will be huge opportunities. ”
——Mao Lin (Planning Director of a Listed Internet Company)
Overall, everyone's expectations for next year are not optimistic, but they still feel that "the big things can't be done, and the small things are promising", and life is like a long river, "the flowing water does not compete for the first, the competition is endless".
1. Half-Buddha Immortal (Tiger Sniff Author)
At present, the main business is investment, and this year it has been a mess. The opening of the store is also not smooth, highlighting a loss. Sideline code words and do talk shows, begging for food from Party A.
The biggest opportunity I see so far I like to call it cyber Chinese medicine, mainly focusing on horoscopes, tarot, numerology, psychological counseling, emotional counseling, and so on.
At present, I can see the friends around me who do this, the underwater revenue is very amazing, and there is almost no need to expand customers, and it is a little more reliable, all of them are people with people, and they can't do it too much.
And the threshold of this thing is much lower than imagined.,I originally thought it was going to be a professional research.,Later, I found that the few around me are all calculated with APP.,Plus many users don't believe this at all.,Just to find someone to talk to.,Just do a good job of tree holes.。
It's such an outrageous thing, it's actually very profitable, compared to me racking my brains every day to write articles and make investments, it's at least three or four floors higher.
Truth be told, undervalued companies, no. You see I've lost a lot of money this year, and it's clear that I've not found an undervalued company.
I fully realized that I was overestimating myself.
I'm just a lucky piece of waste.
2. Miss Geometry (Tiger Sniff Author)
He is currently engaged in education and new business, and his industry is like a weather vane, and he has been growing together with industries and enterprises with technological progress and business growth. Every three to five years, we can see the change of new and old industries in the student data of schools and institutions.
Emerging and sunrise industries are growing explosively, rising, and globalizing; the corresponding decision-makers and their core management teams will also have more people come out to communicate, Xi, update their cognition, and prepare for business going overseas; the hot industries in the past few years are still real estate, finance, technology Internet, and in the portraits of students in the past two years, investment, medical care, biotechnology, agriculture, artificial intelligence and other fields have been added.
The future opportunity space of the education industry will also be accompanied by technological progress and industrial integration, accompanying enterprises and their founders and core management teams, starting from classrooms and laboratories, into factories, into the fields, and out of the country.
The underrated Chinese tech company in my mind is Baidu. As one of the kings of the BAT era, Baidu's core search business has been reconstructed in the form of islands by major apps in the mobile wave of technological progress. This trend and impact is still happening today. But Baidu's respectable and therefore underestimated company is that it has been unswervingly following the technical route for 20 years.
Baidu is the first Chinese technology company to invest heavily in the field of artificial intelligence, and it also has an important position in the core technology field of global technology companies. Standing today, from the perspective of bystanders and hindsight, this sounds correct and ordinary. But standing in the technology, vision and cognition of ten years ago, it is not easy for a large company to spend all its strategic resources to vote for technological progress with uncertain benefits.
Baidu once insisted on increasing the budget of scientists, laboratories, and artificial intelligence teams year by year on the premise that the group's large-market revenue was declining year after year. This long-term vision and heavy investment of real money is especially precious when peers are struggling for traffic, games, immediate growth, and user time.
Baidu is a seriously undervalued company. Although today they are not the strongest in terms of user size and technological globalization competition. Even Baidu, the hottest AI product at the moment, has been controversial at the application level. However, for a company that has firmly followed the technical route since its inception, it has gone further than most of its peers in terms of product values that promote scientific and technological progress. Baidu has an invisible technology accumulation in financial reports and user data. When the next wave of technology arrives, it can represent Chinese enterprises to go further in the global competition.
Since the beginning of this year, I have been doing a serious job related to "AIGC". My position was born because of the outbreak of ChatGPT, and it didn't take long for me to see it, so it was a very magical experience.
I believe that there are many people like me this year, who are starting a new stage of life because of the revival of large models and AI. At the same time, my colleagues and I have met quite a few people this year, whose job stability has been challenged, and even if they are not completely replaced, their workload has been greatly reduced. Overall, does our society benefit more from AI, or is it hurt more?
We may not be able to give a simple answer, just like replacing "AI" with e-commerce, many people make their business in their communities and reach the whole country, but some brick-and-mortar stores are forced to close. The result of the impact of e-commerce on society is likely to be that the specific projects and competency requirements of people's work have changed, but the society as a whole is as stable as before. Society has absorbed and adapted to this upheaval. The same will be true for AI.
I am currently focusing on the application of "AIGC + pan-entertainment/media", and Wenshengtu is the new technology that will bring the biggest changes to this vertical field. In the near future, it is clear that Wensheng video and Wensheng 3D will be the direction we focus on the most.
According to the general pattern since the beginning of this year, it will take about half a year on average from the emergence of paper papers or closed-source technologies to the completion or effect of products that can be used by the open source community. In early December, in addition to Pika 1.0, Alibaba, Byte, and Microsoft all published papers on image-to-video algorithms, and there were many theoretical breakthroughs in the field of video generation. At least by the middle of next year, we will be able to see if there will be industrial-grade video and 3D generation methods.
The entertainment industry is looking forward to video generation technology, which will create the next potential content pool after the actual short video, and will also make the base for film and television dramas and animation shooting broader, and more new players across the border will appear.
As we all know, there are basically no "undervalued" companies in the AI industry at the moment. However, some cases of overestimation and hype still exist. We are committed to restoring the whole picture of the industry, freeing people from "explosion", "revolution" and "disruption", and knowing exactly how they can use AI to enhance their work. That's what we're going to continue to work on next year.
3. Zhiyuan
Since I left the workforce in mid-2021, my industry seems to have changed. Previously, I have been working in the e-commerce field for nearly 7 years, mainly responsible for the marketing department. In my last job, I was in charge of TOB SaaS products in a listed company. I did this job for a year, and then I stopped doing it because of business.
I've always loved writing. After leaving my job in 2021, I encountered a black swan event, and it was difficult to find a job during that time, so I started a "self-media", that is, an official account.
After running the official account, my career changed. Although I'm not sure if self-media is defined as an industry, at present, I mainly focus on platform e-commerce and consumer products, and I have been engaged in marketing before, so I will now do some content creation work from the perspective of "marketing observer", and then provide some external support for customers in marketing.
I think that self-media is a group or industry that is difficult to define clearly, especially personal accounts, similar to a container, although I will write some macro content, but I think the characteristics of self-media are changeable.
To put it simply, combine content creation to provide services to B-end customers, and then, develop a niche brand operation by yourself, similar to the buyers on Xiaohongshu, engage in brands around interests, mainly for some specific groups of people, which is considered a small business.
The companies contacted are all large companies, and some waist customers are pan-technology and home intelligence, and the scale is basically in the B round +, which is not underestimated.
4. Big cousin on the tarmac
I privately think that it is a bit unashamed for us to talk about the industry and the company in a vertical category of self-media. I think that whether it is an industry or a company, every choice made in this unstable world is based on the position and thinking of managers, and the consequences of each choice must also be borne and faced, whether good or bad.
If I say that in the industry I am familiar with, I am optimistic about Juneyao Airlines, not to mention the quality of its service, the tolerance of its helmsmen, especially the tolerance of the media and criticism, has always maintained an open mind, willing to try, dare to face, which is really valuable in the closed civil aviation industry.
5. Mao Lin (Planning Director of a Listed Internet Company)
He is currently engaged in the tourism industry. As a non-standard, cumbersome fulfillment, experience-first industry, the tourism industry has been developing very slowly, the world's top 3 domestic Ctrip, foreign booking, expedia group were born more than 20 years ago, but with the development of personalized, small group, customized needs, and the development of social media such as TikTok, huge opportunities in the tourism industry are emerging.
- The AI revolution brought about by ChatGPT. The biggest problem with the strategy is that it is non-standard and cumbersome, and it relies too much on human intervention, ChatGPT truly realizes personalization.
- Social media brings about a niche psychological identity. Consumers' consumption Xi has changed from checking in "traditional attractions" to checking in niche and popular "Internet celebrity attractions". Traditional tourism products are seriously lagging behind, such as Zibo, and it is only "arranged" on Weibo hot searches when the short videos are blown up.
- The rise of small groups represented by "super fits". The era of large groups is over, and tour guides and KOLs with personal personality media are giving tours a "sense of uniqueness", and the premiums that come with this are very high, and there will be huge opportunities.
Newly established in January 2023 and headquartered in Berlin, Germany, Layla is a severely underrated AI-based smart travel business. This company is completely a product of AI + travel, using ChatGPT to build a chatbot based on TikTok, Twitter and other social media to make travel recommendations.
This is a completely subversive product, which will be held by young people to the death, and truly let the world enter the era of personalized private customization. The company has already received investment from Booking.com co-founder Andy Phillips and Skyscanner co-founder Barry Smith.
Of course, I am more optimistic about the application of super individual + AI, so that tourism can be fully customized and have scale effect, and I look forward to the emergence of such MCN institutions.
6. Judge (Senior Product Manager, Technical Author)
Content traffic and personal IP consulting, education for children with special needs, and overseas medical consulting are just a few of the businesses I have been engaged in in recent years. In terms of opportunities, I would like to focus on the first point. With the maturity of the new generation of social media (Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Channels), the use of content for online customer acquisition has become a prominent science. In the foreseeable future, business competition is serious, and the craft of "making content" is a necessary marketing means for businessmen from all walks of life.
I continue to conduct in-depth research on content production, account operation, and platform rules, and provide consulting services to save time and costs for customers, and avoid the risk of ineffective labor and pitfalls. I believe that the opportunity in this industry is to find industries and individuals with high growth potential in the service process, and I will turn short-term consulting cooperation into long-term in-depth cooperation through joint ventures. Actually, the other two businesses of mine mentioned at the beginning were discovered in this way.
Speaking of undervalued companies, this year I recommend BYD. At the same time, BYD has the technology accumulation of three-electric and hybrid systems, as well as the vehicle design, supply chain, manufacturing and sales resources accumulated in the traditional car-making era.
Through nearly 30 years of accumulation, BYD's passenger car sales have shown exponential growth in the past three years under the condition of increasingly fierce market competition, and there are cost advantages brought by the breakthrough of technology and scale, that is, on the basis of very competitive product prices, profit margins are also guaranteed.
In addition, BYD, as a supplier of electric and hybrid technology, can enjoy the dividends brought by the high growth of the new energy vehicle industry in addition to its own products, similar to Samsung's position in the mobile phone industry.
The reason why he is considered underestimated is that BYD's overseas business has also maintained the same high growth. When it comes to the successful cases of China's technology industry going overseas, everyone thinks more of Huawei, Byte, and Pinduoduo, and often ignores BYD's achievements as a technology manufacturing company.
The second is that BYD's three sub-brands, Denza, Yangwang and Equation Leopard, have made efforts at the same time this year, completing a breakthrough from a parity brand to a mid-to-high-end brand.
Third, given the limitations of use scenarios caused by the bottleneck of battery technology, I believe that the hybrid vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly for a long time to come. BYD's new energy strategy is deeply engaged in both hybrid and pure electric tracks, and BYD will benefit from the growth of new energy vehicles and the demand for gasoline vehicles.
7. Wang Wei (Director of Youfan Research in the Game Industry Media)
It's still in the game industry, don't look at the domestic market in this industry, to be realistic, there are only foreign markets.
Undervalued companies, many years ago, when they first collapsed, I would say miHoYo. When I first came out of the Warm Dress Up game, I would say Folded Paper. When I first came out of the Ark of Tomorrow, I would say Eagle Horn. Now that so many years have passed, the domestic industry is like this, there are no opportunities in the market, and there is no enthusiasm for investment and financing, so strictly speaking, there are no undervalued companies.
If I want to say, I think it's game science. It relies on the black myth Wukong, which is famous enough. However, I think what is underrated is its IP capabilities. Its overall packaging of this product is stronger than that of many mature game companies. A friend described it as "a 4A company in the gaming circle".
The other one is the Lingxi game mentioned in our annual product summary this year. One IP (Three Kingdoms), 4 different product types (Strategy [4x], Card RPG, War Chess, Otome), each of which is doing very well, is really a test of the overall ability of R&D. How they manage and control the project is really worth seeing up close.
8. You Yunting (Senior Partner, Shanghai Dabang Law Firm, Intellectual Property Lawyer)
He is now engaged in the legal service industry. In the next few years, the development of the industry is not optimistic.
On the one hand, from the perspective of the current concept of the judiciary, which advocates the resolution of disputes through comprehensive management, litigation will be reduced, and on the other hand, due to the increase in control, enterprises will not be motivated to develop new businesses, and new forms of business will decrease, the number of transactions will also decrease, and non-litigation business will also decrease.
If we have to talk about the opportunities in the industry, it may be that the compliance risk of enterprises will increase, and the demand for legal services in this area may increase.
9. Chen Pengfei (Blackboard Insight)
At present, he is still doing analytical research work in the education industry. The past 2023 is also the second year of the "double reduction" landing, and the impact of the policy on the industry is huge. But the good news is that industry practitioners have a deeper understanding of the policy, the intensity and scale of implementation. Gradually return to the right track from the state of upheaval.
According to our internal analysis, the biggest opportunity for the future development of the education industry lies in science education. As a developing country, China has long been subject to the technological blockade and sanctions of developed countries, and in order to get out of this predicament, the Chinese government and enterprises have been strengthening independent innovation and technological research, so the importance of talents is self-evident.
In recent years, the Ministry of Education and other departments have issued a number of policy opinions, systematically deploying the addition of science education in the "double reduction" of education, supporting the integration of services, and promoting the high-quality development of education, science and technology, and talents. Stimulating young people's curiosity and imagination, enhancing their interest in science and their sense of innovation should be regarded as an important part of quality education, and the promotion of the spirit of science should run through the whole process of education. Therefore, the promotion of science education is in line with the development direction of the country, and great support has been given in terms of policy.
In addition, as the post-90s generation has gradually become the main force of parents, everyone's education and consumption concepts are more advanced. In 2023, a major breakthrough has been made in the field of artificial intelligence, gradually penetrating from the laboratory environment into all aspects of our daily lives, and more and more parents are beginning to realize the importance of science education.
When it comes to undervalued companies, I personally think it's Walnut Programming. As a children's programming company, it is usually difficult to pay attention to such a company if you are not an industry insider. And I think it's underrated for 3 reasons:
(1) The activity of the capital market in the education industry has been greatly reduced, and although there are many players in the children's programming track, the pattern has been relatively determined, and it is difficult for new enterprises to participate. The Matthew effect is obvious, and investment institutions will only be interested in companies that are at the top of the industry. Since 2017, Walnut Programming has completed 5 rounds of financing, and in 2021, it has completed a financing of 200 million US dollars. Even in the case of many uncertainties in the external environment, the numbers on the books still give the company a very high fault tolerance rate, and the company's current business development is very stable and the cash flow is very healthy.
(2) The development of the children's programming industry is a great test of teachers and teaching curriculum system, and Walnut Programming has long begun to lay out teacher training bases in many cities across the country. In addition, it is more interesting that they are also the first team in the industry to integrate AI capabilities into the curriculum system, although the cost of communication and explanation with investors in the early stage is very high, but the combat effectiveness of this team is still very strong, and it has stubbornly walked out of a teaching path that is different from other enterprises, including the teaching concept of practical courses this year, and explored a new path for the development of the industry.
(3) In the past, the development of science education did not attract much attention, as I mentioned earlier, the industry will usher in unprecedented development opportunities in the next few years, especially for children's programming enterprises.
10. Lan Jun (Partner of Shenzhen Meisha Technology, WeChat public account: Blues)
Currently in the EdTech industry. The biggest opportunity for the edtech industry in the coming years lies in the combination of personalized learning Xi and augmented reality (AR)/virtual reality (VR) instruction, as well as the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and generative content (AIGC) technologies. The convergence of these technologies heralds the creation of a more interactive, immersive, and customized Xi environment.
With the acceleration of the digital transformation of the global economy and the popularity of distance education models, the demand for flexible and personalized education continues to grow among Xi. AI and AIGC will make educational content more easily adapted to each student's unique learning pace and Xi style, providing tailored lessons and feedback, while AR/VR technology can provide an immersive experience that makes the understanding of complex concepts intuitive and engaging. With the continuous advancement of data analytics technology, EdTech companies are able to use Xi analytics to optimize learning Xi processes and outcomes, which opens new doors for student success and educational equity.
Undervalued company: Duolingo, Duolingo has more than 500 million users worldwide and more than 40 million monthly active users, and has achieved a turnaround in Q2 2023, with a net profit of $2.8 million in Q3. Although Duolingo is already a well-known brand in the field of language Xi, its long-term potential in the edtech industry is often overlooked by the market.
Duolingo leverages AI for the design of personalized learning Xi paths and maintains a high level of user engagement through game chemistry Xi. It collects user data to continuously optimize its algorithms and course content, and this data-driven decision-making approach allows its product to continue to evolve. In the context of globalization, multilingualism is becoming more and more important, and the market demand for Duolingo has room for extensive growth. At the same time, as the company continues to expand its service offerings, such as entering the K-12 education market, and its investment in AI teaching technology, I believe there is still a lot of room for Duolingo to increase its influence in the edtech space.
There are three reasons why Duolingo is optimistic about its future development:
First, Duolingo's user growth and engagement metrics show that its products have strong market appeal, secondly, continued investment in technology and innovation demonstrate the company's determination to remain a leading player in the EdTech space, and finally, Duolingo has the potential to expand and grow as a company that has established a strong brand and user base as the global demand for online educational resources grows.
11. Yuan Wen (Co-founder of Beijing Slightly Da Culture)
At present, he is engaged in science and technology Internet self-media.
In the next few years, in-depth and good content will become a more important moat for the industry. For example, in the past 2023, although everyone will see the phenomenon of "begging" for advertising in the circle of friends, they will feel that the life brought about by the tightening of the advertising budget is not good. But in fact, many "small but beautiful" accounts are doing well, and their income has reached a high value in recent years.
One of the important reasons is that in the case of limited budgets, manufacturers will give priority to institutions and self-media that can produce good content. This trend will continue in the coming years. Under the market reshuffle and the survival of the fittest, a group of players will fall and a group of players will evolve.
Underrated company: miHoYo. Its product power is strong enough, and it may become a more powerful game company than Tencent and NetEase in the future.
12. 老钱日日谈（播客"面基"主播）
At present, in the content industry, most businesses just need content, but content itself is a very bad business.
Rotten is reflected in several points:
First, practitioners generally have a large EGO, the industry has no way to standardize, there is no concentration at all (it should not and cannot be), the revenue ceiling is very low, and it is easy to raise costs for expansion, and only make money without making money. Because the team is not rewarded, the scale is not rewarded, the efficiency is not rewarded, and competition is very encouraged. Good content needs revenue to cover.
Second, the industry is an ancient business, but the ancient is the industry, and the practitioners cannot be ancient, the narrative of the times and the taste of the public will change, and the industry will be ushered in. The content industry has been dominated by platforms, and practitioners are attached to them. And once the algorithm is introduced on the platform, the fate of the practitioner is very random.
Third, the biggest opportunity lies in the emergence of new forms and new content platforms: Weibo → public accounts →Doukuaihong B→ Himalayan small universe. Posts→ articles→ long videos→ short videos→ audio. New emergences mean new opportunities for practitioners.
Fourth, competition will intensify, as the "middle-class pillar industries" are gradually hit, a large number of graduates are forced to work in the content industry, increasing supply and intensifying competition.
But how long will the window of new opportunities be?
- On the length of the window period: subscription-based platforms > algorithm-based platforms
- On the difficulty of cold start: algorithm-based platforms > subscription-based platforms
- On the contrary, it is a means of monetization, which is quite stable: advertising, virtual/physical goods, services, and self-owned products drainage
Opportunities currently seen:
- Podcasts as a new format of opportunity (it's hard to make money by making traffic)
- Opportunity to publish a book (it is difficult to make money to earn long-tail traffic)
- Opportunities to instrumentalize Mini Programs (easy to earn long-tail traffic)
As mentioned earlier, the content industry is a bad business and has no investment value. Therefore, the companies mentioned below refer to the companies whose monetization possibilities: Small Universe, Little Red Book, and CITIC Press.
13. IT 桔子分析师
He is currently engaged in the venture capital industry. Niche, and increasingly niche. Perhaps the biggest opportunity for our industry in the next few years is technology, which is the last bastion.
I think the underrated company is Baidu, and this answer has been in my mind for years. Baidu missed out on the entire mobile internet, which is why it fell low. But as long as people believe that artificial intelligence is the future, Baidu will have a day of flying high.
14. Liu Yu (Most Talking Partner)
I am currently engaged in the self-media industry, and 2023 is the 12th year of working in the media/self-media industry, which can be regarded as experiencing the sunset of the portal and the ebb and flow of the self-media industry.
The self-media industry will continue to undergo great changes and differentiation in the next few years, the compliance requirements for content will become more and more stringent, and the impact of business monetization on the general environment will become more uncertain. If there is still a chance, it may be video-making a video account/Douyin account. Although the content of self-media is important, the customer's budget, delivery logic, and delivery direction are more important. Short videos have become the most important information acquisition channel for audiences, and customers naturally pay more attention to short video channels.
An undervalued company, I think it could be Huawei. Although Huawei is now in full swing, attacking cities and land in the fields of mobile phones and smart cars, everyone dare not take it lightly, but I personally think that everyone may still underestimate its strength and technical reserves, as well as the support it has received.
Although Huawei is now in full swing, attacking cities and land in the fields of mobile phones and smart cars, everyone dare not take it lightly, but I personally think that everyone may still underestimate its strength and technical reserves, as well as the support it has received. Kirin 9000S has proven its resilience, and the birth of this chip is behind years of accumulation and the results of the past 3 years of support from all parties, the production capacity problem is no longer a bottleneck, and 7nm is the current mainstream production capacity of GPU/computing cards, Kunpeng 910B is the only mass-produced, independent controllable high-performance domestic GPU, in the general environment, may get more orders and support, after all, large models need a steady stream GPU, this is not to say that you can do it once and for all if you hoard tens of thousands of dollars now.
In terms of smart cars, Huawei has been laying out in the hardware field, promoting the cost reduction of components such as lidar, the integration of basic components and operating system software and hardware, and the ability to produce its own chips, which is technically an advantage for new forces and even traditional car companies, and there happen to be a large number of high-net-worth customers who recognize the Huawei brand. In terms of technology, brand power, and price power, few car companies can face the hard bar.
Huawei's technical reserves in many fields are too strong and deep, involving many industries, and receiving support from all sides, which is difficult for other technology companies to achieve. It's like a giant, whether you like it or not, it stomps its feet, and the whole tech industry still shakes three points.
15. Hardy (Operations Manager, a health care worker training company)
Engaged in the health care industry (just getting started), the biggest opportunities in the health care industry in the next few years may lie in the following aspects:
(1) The development of the pension industry: With the intensification of the aging population, the pension industry will become an important growth point of the health care industry. In the next few years, with the increase in the elderly population, the demand for elderly care services will continue to grow, including nursing homes, home care, rehabilitation care and other services. Moreover, people's awareness and attention to health are increasing, and the demand for medical care services is also escalating. From simple medical services to all-round physical and mental health management. Health care enterprises can seize this opportunity to provide professional and high-quality elderly care services to meet market demand.
(2) Technological innovation and application: Technological progress will continue to have a profound impact on the health care industry. In the next few years, the application of technology in the fields of intelligent medical care, remote diagnosis and treatment, and health management will be more extensive. With the help of these technologies, health care enterprises can improve service efficiency and quality, improve user experience, and meet consumers' needs for convenient and personalized services. At the same time, the application of big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies will also help enterprises better analyze and predict market demand and provide consumers with more accurate services.
(3) The development of community and home care: With the deepening of the aging of society, the demand for community and home care is increasing. These services can provide more convenient and closer services to residents, and meet the needs of the elderly at different levels and with different needs.
(4) Specialized and personalized services: In the future, medical care services will be more specialized and personalized. According to the specific situation of different elderly people, customized services are provided, including health management, rehabilitation training, nutrition guidance, etc., so that the elderly can receive more comprehensive care in medical care services.
Recommend Millet Care Company. Millet Care is an organization that focuses on providing health care services, covering rehabilitation, nursing, nutrition and other aspects. Now the service area is mainly in Henan, just two years after its establishment in 91 medical institutions, serving more than 5,000 users.
Here are some of the reasons:
Service Innovation: Millet Care focuses on service innovation and meets the needs of different customers by providing personalized home care services. Helps to stand out in a competitive market.
Expertise: Millet Care has a professional medical team that is able to provide high-quality services.
Clear market positioning: Millet Yihu's clear market positioning is in more subdivided industry services, not in real estate and hardware construction that are not easy to make money, and it is easy to make profits. For example, focus on home care services.
Cooperation and Alliance: Millet Yihu actively establishes cooperative relations with other relevant institutions and enterprises, such as cooperation with medical institutions, communities, governments, etc., to jointly promote the development of health care services. This model of cooperation helps to achieve resource sharing and improve efficiency.
16. Ms. Ming Yu (Senior Writer of Technology Media)
He is currently engaged in the media industry and is responsible for business reporting in the technology and Internet industry.
The current feeling is that the tech media industry is more at stake than opportunity. Many well-known technology media were born around 2012 and are the products of the wave of mobile Internet innovation and entrepreneurship, and the technology media has witnessed the whole process of Didi, Meituan, ByteDance and other companies growing from startups to giants, and also witnessed the demise of many tuyere companies.
At present, the wave of mobile Internet innovation and entrepreneurship has basically ended, and the competition pattern of several large companies is basically stable, and only some local wars remain. The wave of innovation and entrepreneurship brought about by AI and hard technology is far less violent than that of the mobile Internet, and many technology media practitioners have entered a period of confusion. If I have to talk about opportunities, I think that the innovative business gameplay and AI industrialization of individuals or small groups relying on the platform economy deserve the attention of the technology media industry.
I think the underrated company is Akashiko. It mainly serves overseas users, and many domestic users do not know about this company and its products. MICO is a live streaming app that is mainly oriented to markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, North America, Japan and South Korea, and has entered the top 10 in the best-selling social app list of the App Store in more than 100 countries and regions, and is also the main source of revenue for the city. Its products with stronger social attributes, such as YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, have room for growth and development potential. At the same time, Chizicheng also acquired Blued. In the first half of this year, the company's revenue and profit still maintained a growth rate of about 100%, and the performance increased by 2~3 times compared with the IPO, but the stock price was more than 40% lower, and the company's value is worth re-appraising.
17. Li Yan (Tian Fangyan talks about the founder of self-media, member of Chengdu Writers Association, member of Chengdu Science and Technology News Society, author of the book "Dealing with Teachers")
2023 marks my tenth year in the text content industry.
I felt like the year was going by so fast, so fast that I didn't want it to end. There are still many things that I want to accomplish in this year, but I am now nailed to the "unfinished" pillar of shame.
2023 will be very busy, but the money can't be said to be earned, after all, the 3,000-point defense battle of A-shares is very bloody. However, I still have faith in the text content industry, and in today's world, where human attention and writing power are generally declining, quality text content is increasingly becoming a scarce commodity.
Times and people also need good written content. We have too many scripts of film and television works that can't even tell the basic story clearly, and there are too many live broadcast room anchors' script lines that only have "mechanism", "welfare", "123 getting on the bus" and "family...... With the blessing of text content without characteristics and differentiated competitive advantages, too many enterprises, institutions, and social organizations have to arrange for people to write an announcement, and there are many loopholes.
Even if generative artificial intelligence, the text content of big data used in training, Xi, and evolution also comes from humans? Even if large models that are reluctant to change day and night can now create good text content, they still lack people's personalized thoughts, real emotional experience and spiritual creativity compared with high-quality text content workers in human society.
Of course, diving into the textual content industry chain based on generative AI is the industry's biggest opportunity in the next few years. In this industrial chain, it is entirely possible to provide large-scale model services for the elimination of basic text content workers. At the same time, it can provide some useful attempts for high-quality text content workers to improve efficiency and assist in innovation.
Photography and cartoons aside, just the work of text content on the news is the reporting of three genres: news, newsletters, and commentary. There is a tendency for AI to replace newswriters. However, for newsletters and commentary that require personalized perspectives, independent thinking, and spiritual expression, even if the large model completes the imitation of the works of all the top journalists in history at the same time in a second, it is impossible to produce timeless classic reports that intervene in reality and directly touch the hearts and souls of people.
In 2023, I have created a lot of newsletters and commentary reports on the Internet technology industry, and there may not be many high-quality ones, and further efforts are needed. But in the process, I came into contact with a lot of companies on the front line. Among them, JD.com was undervalued this year, and its stock price has bottomed out.
If the economic downturn has led to the so-called "consumption downgrade" in favor of platforms such as Pinduoduo, then the boost in consumption and economic recovery are more beneficial to JD.com. In addition, users in the sinking market who have just come into contact with online shopping are bound to choose shopping platforms with better quality and service guarantee after continuous comparison.
China's economic development is still gaining momentum, and the domestic economy is expected to continue to recover in 2024. JD.com's quality and service guarantee have always been well-known among Chinese users. Since 2022, JD.com has put forward a low-price strategy, hoping to provide users with more preferential prices on the basis of quality service assurance, which will attract more users who pursue cost-effective goods.
Although JD.com is underrated, its supply chain capabilities are strong enough. When JD.com's self-operated commodity SKUs exceeded 10 million, the inventory turnover days were only 31.7 days, and the fulfillment expense rate dropped to 5.8%, both of which were industry-leading levels.
Two retailers recognized as having strong supply chain capabilities, Costco and Walmart, have inventory cycles of 30.4 days and 45.5 days, respectively. It's worth noting that they only manage 5,000 SKUs and 50,000 SKUs. Cost efficiency is the foundation of enterprise survival and development, and the cost efficiency advantage brought by the supply chain has not changed the biggest moat of JD.com.
In terms of service, Jingdong is also changing, and like Taobao and Pinduoduo, it has started "refund only". Judging from the performance of JD 618 and JD Double 11 in 2023, the exit of JD's procurement and sales and the bottoming out trend revealed in JD's financial report, JD's performance in 2024 is quite exciting.
In fact, the only constant in this world is change. Don't question change, understand change, be change. And the more you are in the midst of upheaval, the more valuable your sober thinking becomes. It is also more valuable to be able to produce thoughts into written content.
18. Han Zuli (founder of the Sogdian Ark)
At the end of 2023, I came out of Dachang and devoted myself to the track of data technology. Some people say that this is against the wind, but we believe that the industry is poised to take off. This adventure of mine stems from the insight of two key factors:
First, the data industry is undergoing a supply-side reform. We are witnessing an increasing number of high-quality, valuable data in the marketplace, which is not only changing the accessibility of data, but also opening up new possibilities for how it can be used and interpreted.
Second, the digital transformation of enterprises continues to deepen. As more and more businesses seek to improve productivity through data, data technology has become critical. These organizations need more than just data, but also the ability to derive business intelligence insights from data.
Together, these two factors have contributed to our transition from the information age to the digital age. The information age is characterized by electronic and networked information transmission, and the digital age is marked by the ubiquity of intelligent decision-making driven by data and algorithms.
In 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a landmark event that not only demonstrated the huge potential of artificial intelligence, but also heralded the infinite possibilities of future technology. In this context, several significant opportunities in the technology industry come from the three elements of artificial intelligence: algorithms, computing power, and data.
First, the industry model: the continuous breakthrough of artificial intelligence has once again improved the productivity of science and technology, and enterprises that have been using artificial intelligence technology will enjoy the dividends brought by technological breakthroughs more deeply, and enterprises that have not used artificial intelligence technology have the opportunity to use new technologies to usher in new development opportunities. Therefore, the industrial application of more large models will become a better opportunity in 2024.
Second, data products: Benefiting from the improvement of social informatization, data is becoming more and more large and diverse, and how to delicately combine data and apply it to new algorithms will be a new market opportunity.
Third, high-density computing power cloud: New algorithm breakthroughs and more and more massive data overlays have made the consumption of computing power increase exponentially, and traditional cloud computing has been unable to meet these needs, and the market has a very strong demand for high-density computing power cloud.
Therefore, at present, all upstream and downstream enterprises related to artificial intelligence are underestimated. Upstream companies include small, high-density cloud computing companies, data technology companies, CDN networks and other companies, downstream new biotechnology companies, and companies serving industrial manufacturing.
19. Sun Jing (Director of "NoNoise")
He is currently engaged in the content industry, focusing on the observation of technology and consumer fields.
What are the biggest opportunities for the industry in the coming years? Technology: cost-reducing and efficiency-enhancing services through AI and digitalization, and Consumption: Cost-effective business.
I think the undervalued company is Meituan: although Meituan's share price has fallen to more than 80 yuan and has become a capital trampling target from a generation of stock kings, the company's chassis is still relatively stable, and its basic competitive barrier - the delivery system built by more than 6 million riders is still unshakable in a short period of time, and this system is expected to build a new high wall in Meituan's ongoing instant retail business. Another point that is easy to overlook is Meituan's capabilities on the B-side, such as commercial infrastructure merchant systems, supply chain integration, etc.
From the perspective of the overall industry, although the growth of food delivery has basically peaked, the local life market, including in-store and wine tourism, is large and scattered, and the competition with Douyin is not yet a zero-sum game. Of course, competition will inevitably affect Meituan's profitability somewhat, but measuring a company's value requires multiple dimensions, not just a single financial report.
From the perspective of the macroeconomic situation, under the pressure of recovery and conservative consumption expectations, e-commerce platforms and brands are under greater pressure, and a large part of the local life business is rigid demand and high-frequency categories, and the recovery will probably be faster.
20. Wu Lixiang (Founder of Entertainment Capital)
He is currently engaged in the entertainment industry. AI has a great impact on the entertainment industry, whether it is to reduce costs, or the possible second innovation ecology, and may even affect the IP licensing industry.
The overall long video field is underestimated, for example, in the field of short video, film and television have always been the first major category, and the short video playback volume and playback time of "Let's Go Now" are not much better than those of long video, but a good business model has not yet been found. If you can't find it, it may greatly affect the effective output of the long video side in the future.
21. Brother Spear (Changli Capital)
In the field of VC in China, I have been in business for more than three years before I know it.
In the past three years, the epidemic has passed, but it has not ushered in the prosperity of the VC industry. We VC practitioners analyze the track of the tuyere every day, the sexiest project, but few people seriously analyze the VC track.
It's getting harder and harder for VC fundraising. On the one hand, subject to the influence of the economic cycle and the industrial cycle, the money of the local financial LP has to stay in the local area, and in many cases, VC investment has become investment outsourcing, and VC investment has become more and more impure. On the other hand, the exit channels for IPOs are tightening, and the money of private LPs has not returned to the private sector, and the withdrawal of funds has also become a heavy topic.
We see that the penetration rate of state-owned capital in the VC market is gradually increasing, and the market share of private fund managers is declining. Although the market has left a smaller cake for private fund managers, from another point of view, fewer people have eaten the private cake, and the quality of the cake has become better. So whoever can persevere is "the leftover is king".
In the next few years, the VC field will continue to reshuffle. After 20 years of development, China's local VC industry will become more and more mature, and LPs in the market will also become more and more mature.
Scientific and technological innovation to lead the construction of a modern system is the guiding direction of the Economic Work Conference of the CPC Central Committee, and it is also the consensus of China's current VC. In the next few years, early investors in the primary market will pay more attention to the promotion of disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies to the industry, while investors in the growth stage will pay more attention to the high-quality improvement of key industrial chains, as well as the resilience and safety of industrial chains/supply chains.
Insisting on technology investment is the only choice for China's local VCs.
The flowing water does not compete for the first, but the competition is endless.
22. TC Chiang Mai
I'm now semi-retired, so I'm working as an Airbnb, renting out my own house and that of a friend in Thailand, and I'm barely semi-freelance.
At present, my industry is still a marginal industry, and it is already good that the government does not prohibit or restrict it. If you really talk about opportunities, it still depends on the situation in China, there is too much unfavorable information from Southeast Asia and Thailand this year, and there are a lot fewer Chinese tourists. Of course, it could also be a domestic economic problem. In short, if China is good, Thailand tourism will be good.
In terms of undervalued companies, they have not been in the industry for a long time and have paid less attention. But if you have to say that I don't know if Tencent counts, Tencent seems to be looked down on by many people now, because they don't know where the next growth point is. But I think that as long as the moat of social networking is still there, an aircraft carrier like Tencent can rise at any time in the next outlet, but no one knows which outlet it will be.
23. Li Chunhui (Editor-in-Chief of Entertainment Hard Candy)
is currently engaged in the entertainment industry, and in 2013, he and his colleagues bragged at the dinner table that they were big projects that could be IPO-level in three years, but in 2023, I can't think of any big opportunities, I can only think of some opportunities for small teams to make small money.
Mini Program skits still have a chance before they are strictly regulated, after all, the monetization chain is very short, and the exciting content and human damn curiosity are unlimited. Even big manufacturers are investing in this field.
The male frequency sweet pet seems to have a real chance. It's not just the "finished" effect, but it feels that the limitations are quite accidental. According to the online data report of China Literature, the compound growth rate of male frequency sweet pets has ranked first for five consecutive years. If you compare the content of women, after being disappointed in reality, women invest in romance in the first stage, Tanmei in the second stage, and anti-love brains without CP in the third stage. Then men, due to their lack of attention and sensitivity to the relationship between the sexes, may have just entered the first stage and are in need of sexual transformation in Meteor Garden.
The underrated company is iQIYI, which has proven in the past year that only long videos can produce phenomenal content and topics that the whole society pays attention to, understands, and long-tail. The hot spots created by short videos are too short, which is also the demand of its platform. The demand of long video itself is to extend the life cycle of content, which still has imagination in terms of the scale of its monetization and the benefits of the industry. It seems to be outdated to say IP now, but the industry has really just begun to touch the door in the past two years.
In terms of cost, as long video cuts down on food and gradually grasps the upstream discourse, its cost reduction and efficiency increase have been implemented. Not only is it a single film, but the overall market supply in the past two years has also been greatly reduced, but the audience has not been lost, which shows that it is enough to have so many dramas, and there are more opportunities for each drama to be seen.
In terms of monetization, with the peak of live streaming, short, flat and fast performance advertising has begun to expose flaws, and there may be a wave of return to brand marketing, which is good for the advertising business of long videos. At the same time, with the strengthening of the long-tail effect of dramas, the popularization of multiple payment forms such as paid on-demand, popular drama concerts, and peripheral products is expected to increase the ARPU value of long videos. For example, the popular "Xiongjing drama" in 2023 is not unthinkable to do pitching with an interactive drama mode. To put it bluntly, a lot of the money in the long video used to be made by others. For example, celebrities not only have high salaries, but also long-video dramas have become popular with celebrities, but they can't share the celebrity's business income since then. Now that's changing.
And iQIYI is the most innovative company in long video, and it has been leading industry innovation from the past to the present.
24. Chen Jing (R&D Director, Asia Vision Technology)
At present, he is engaged in the research and development of artificial intelligence industry, visual image and video recognition related business. At present, the biggest hotspot in the industry is obviously AIGC, which is divided into two main fields: GPT language large model, and image and video generation.
GPT is still in the money-burning stage of the arms race, and the seven giants with the largest market capitalization in the U.S. stock market are all driven by artificial intelligence breakthroughs, and their market value will increase by 50%~240% in 2023, but the large model itself has not yet generated direct huge benefits.
Image and video generation, the industry already has a financially successful startup like Midjourney, with tens of millions of users and $100 million in revenue a year without investors. Startups such as Pika have gained a lot of attention by relying on AI video generation.
Personally, I believe that the application opportunity of AIGC is still in image and video generation, which can greatly reduce the content cost of image and video-related industries. However, due to the obvious logical defects in the text generation of GPT, it is more difficult than imagined to obtain huge economic value on the ground. However, the GPT large model is multimodal, and there is a great opportunity to go to Wensheng diagram and Wensheng video.
The undervalued company personally recommends Alibaba, it has considerable R&D strength, investment is not low, and long-term perspective, but in recent years, the business has been hit hard, and the e-commerce business has been robbed a lot by rivals such as Pinduoduo and Douyin, and the cloud business has to face the cooperation and competition between Huawei and state-owned enterprises, and the market value has fallen to less than 200 billion US dollars, less than a quarter of the peak. However, if Alibaba can base itself on its user base and extensive business lines, combine its software and hardware development capabilities, and make breakthroughs with the help of artificial intelligence core algorithms, it should find great development opportunities.
25. Huang Xiaojun (Director of "Whale Research Brand Lab")
I am currently working as a brand marketing communication consultant, which can be regarded as a consulting service industry.
As a Party B track, the opportunity comes from Party A. This year, we are seeing a downgrade in consumption and a slow economic recovery, and many brands have lowered their marketing budgets for the future. According to the previous report, from the sample data of more than 200 companies in more than 20 industries in China, their overall marketing budget growth in 2024 is 11%, which is the lowest increase in the last seven years.
It's hard to brand, and it's hard for third parties to serve brands. However, judging from the more than 30 companies I visited last year, when a large number of older generation entrepreneurs or second-generation enterprises took over, everyone's awareness of the brand has increased.
Many regional brands, the industry has the opportunity to be a national brand, and the oligopoly is serious and wants to deepen the local area and vigorously seize the minds of local users.
Many traditional brands are thinking about turning the trademark LOGO into a brand, and how to link with dealers and franchisees directly to users.
Many entrepreneurial brands have begun to chase profits without chasing scale, and have returned to small and beautiful or niche brands, here I have a new term, which is to do scene brands, just like Hubang hot sauce did takeaway at the beginning, small brands want to do revealing camps, do a family of two and so on.
Moreover, most of these brands are in North China, Southwest China and other places, which were originally brand depressions, and most of them were upstream enterprises under the advantages of the supply chain before, and now the brand awareness is awakened, but they are a little overwhelmed by how to do the brand.
From the perspective of the overall environment, there is nothing to be done in the big place, and there is a lot to be done in the small place.
There are certain opportunities to communicate and share with the above brands and really help them achieve a brand start from 0 to 1.
In this, the big service organizations can't look down on it, after all, the budget is really not much. But it is enough to feed a small service team to do personalized services, rather than the modular, process-based output of large institutions.
I think the underrated company is Jinye Food, hawthorn leisure snacks, with an annual income of 1 billion, and the first in mid-to-high-end hawthorn.
There is not much technical content in the hawthorn industry, and the test of business power lies in how to communicate with users, how to build lean production, and how to achieve organizational construction. This company has learned from Kazuo Inamori, and has done a good job in corporate culture and amoeba organization. Once those routine things on the market side are exerted in the future, and its organization can withstand the test of actual pressure, then the performance of the front-end will be exploded, which is a typical example of accumulation.
26. A maverick Eric (Xiaohongshu commercial sales operation)
He is currently working in the commercialization team of content media and belongs to the online advertising industry.
In my personal judgment, in the online advertising industry in the next few years, grass advertising will become the fastest growing marketing track (compared with brand advertising and effect advertising (including: e-commerce advertising)). It can be seen from Xiaomi's participation in new energy car manufacturing that after the completion of the industrial upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, the domestic consumer goods market continues to accelerate the trend of "import substitution" is significant, whether it is the defensive marketing of foreign capital (such as: automobiles), or the rise of local consumer goods companies (such as: Proya, Anta), all of which have given enough market space tension to grass advertising.
And with the increasing segmentation of consumer demand and the trend of more and more decentralized marketing traffic, Internet celebrity content marketing has begun to accelerate its evolution from Douyin's entertainment short drama to word-of-mouth marketing based on high-quality content (Xiaohongshu), and this emerging word-of-mouth marketing paradigm does not even have a benchmarking platform between China and the United States, and belongs to the most cutting-edge online advertising model.
I think Ali is an undervalued company, although Pinduoduo is gaining momentum, but e-commerce is still a business without significant network effects (compared to WeChat), the level of operation at all stages, personalized recommendation capabilities, traffic cost structure, will have a greater impact on the ups and downs of business competition; Ali has more than 20 years of e-commerce ecological accumulation, as well as deep accumulation in cloud computing, logistics, finance and other e-commerce supporting fields, I believe that after Pinduoduo's growth slows down, Ali's valuation will still return to its reasonable level.
27. Yu Dongqi (founder of a consulting firm)
He is currently engaged in consulting entrepreneurship. Make up for the shortcomings of the enterprise, whether it is strategy or organization, what is short. Strictly speaking, what we do is a new category in the consulting industry.
The biggest opportunity for the industry in the next few years: to really see the needs of the enterprise, start from the needs of the enterprise, find solutions, and become a company that can really solve problems for the enterprise.
Historically, the most mature consulting field in China, such as advertising and marketing, which only does a skill consulting company, can be so clearly divided into types of work is limited, and it is not enough to cover most of the needs of enterprises. Moreover, such a consulting company actually starts from its own professional skills.
I have a certain expertise, and I sell it to companies that need it. Such a consulting company is like a specialist doctor – those who prescribe medicine only prescribe medicine, and those who do surgery only do surgery.
However, sometimes companies can't tell what kind of problem they are encountering. He just felt some kind of symptom - it could be a lack of growth, not making money, or even the boss being too tired. At this time, when the company is unable to judge the symptoms, a general practitioner is needed to complete the diagnosis first, and then look at whether to prescribe surgery or medicine. However, there are no established providers for general practitioners in the consulting industry in the Chinese market. This is the opportunity I see.
Undervalued company: Meituan.
Most people will judge a company based on the results of a momentary competition. However, being a business is a long-distance race. If it's a 10,000-meter race, it's like I've run 800 meters and my opponent has run 1,000 meters. However, there is still a long way to go, and there are countless new opportunities. For long-distance running, speed is more important than location, and acceleration is more important than speed.
For enterprises, the result of competition is only where they are. The ability of the enterprise is speed. The iteration and growth speed of the founder is the acceleration.
At the time of the community group buying war, Meituan was learning from Amazon, but in fact, it still spent a lot of energy to practice its capabilities. I believe that in the long run, training ability will be better than fighting directly to win this long-distance race.
28. 虎嗅作者 Huxiu148
As the role of "Sniffing Friend", I summarized my thoughts on 2023 by borrowing Jia Zhangke's film "Swim Until the Sea Turns Blue", which expresses my personal mood and also fits my views on some things.
(1) Changing careers, as a veteran of logistics and supply chain management, he has been working in the logistics and retail circulation industry for more than ten years, and will enter the chemical industry as a marketing and sales person in 2023, and is still adapting to his new role.
(2) The characteristics of the chemical industry are in two aspects, one is that the chemical industry belongs to the traditional industry and has a long cycle, and the other is that the large customer groups in the industry are "not bad money" roles, this industry is like an equilateral triangle, giving people the feeling of stability and symmetry, unbreakable!
(3) For the development trend of external business personal understanding is limited, more or focus on the retail circulation industry, the overall development trend of the domestic retail circulation industry, from the development scale of the market in the future or continue to decline, from the analysis of the operation mode of each enterprise, do not see the forward-looking model changes. The market value ranking of e-commerce enterprises in the retail circulation industry, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo's market value surpassing Ali is a change in the market.
In the long run, Ali's energy is underestimated, and the reasons are as follows:
First, the biggest opportunity for the rapid development of domestic e-commerce enterprises in the past 20 years is a result of the changes in China's social and personal development needs.
In addition, I have nearly four years of experience in rural e-commerce entrepreneurship, coupled with my own local complex, the thinking about the contradiction between urban and rural areas has been fixed in my mind since around 2012, lingering, but I can't find the answer, and finally find some answers in Director Jia's film and Yu Hua's sigh.
Second, China still has about 900 million market groups, which are in the sinking market, even Pinduoduo, which claims to have developed by relying on the sinking market, its actual influence is still limited. Ali has begun to enter the sinking market around 2014, but it chose a different strategy, that is, Taobao + rural Taobao + Tmall store + rookie station, but the development of this road ultimately failed.
Personally, I believe that the biggest factor for the success of the sinking market lies in the upgrading of the circulation side, and this link involves many factors such as business resources, logistics, supply chain network, and finance. As the earliest successful e-commerce company in China, Alibaba has advantages over other companies in terms of its huge data base, operational experience, resource integration capabilities, and government relations.
29. Shi Xianqin (Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Tonglu County Cultural Tourism Investment Group Co., Ltd.)
At present, it is engaged in the large cultural tourism industry, and its subdivisions are scenic spot management, hotels, travel agencies and other supporting service providers.
According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic tourists will be 826 million during the 8-day Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, an increase of 71.3% year-on-year and 4.1% year-on-year compared with 2019, and the domestic tourism revenue will reach 753.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.5% on a comparable basis and a 1.5% increase on a comparable basis compared with 2019. It is predicted that the number of domestic tourists will reach 5.407 billion in 2023, and the domestic tourism revenue will reach 5.2 trillion yuan, recovering to 90% and 91% of 2019 respectively. Although the recovery in tourist arrivals and average order value is close to pre-pandemic levels, the trends and expectations of mass tourism consumption have changed significantly.
First, the tourism radius has shrunk significantly, overseas travel has decreased, and domestic tourism has taken the lead in recovery. Second, weekend short-distance travel has become the mainstream, and impromptu off-peak tourism has risen. The third is the rise of family tours and individual tours, and the decline of group tours. Fourth, there is no increase in income but no increase in profits, and the trend of consumption differentiation is obvious. Fifth, it is better to please others than to please oneself, and diversified motives and personalized needs coexist.
These changes in the consumption tendency of cultural tourism, such as Citywalk, special forces tourism, and a tent to support "poetry and distance", "not that down jackets cannot be bought, but military coats are more cost-effective", actually point to one thing, most people's incomes have declined, and confidence in the future economic security is expected to decline. Therefore, mass tourism consumption is increasingly pursuing the so-called "cost performance", the recognition of brand premium is getting lower and lower, and tourism is paying more and more attention to personal substance. This reflects the collapse of the so-called "middle-class lifestyle" that the mainstream media has been advocating, and that 100 million people do not represent a group of 1.4 billion. With the major reform of the real estate market, the phenomenon of "middle class returning to poverty" has only punctured the phantom of most people's middle-class dreams. "Advanced consumption" is powerless in the face of the "family economic crisis", and mass consumption is increasingly returning to rationality, returning to the self, and returning to nature.
Therefore, for the large consumption industry, borrowing the concept of the consumption era from the Miura Exhibition, I personally believe that China is moving from the low-profile version of the "third consumption era" (personalization, brand tendency, big city tendency, and American tendency) to the low-profile version of the "fourth consumption era" (de-branding, focusing on substance, simple leisure, national tide tendency, and Japanese tendency).
The undervalued company is MINISO, it should be noted that MINISO has not been on the market for a long time, so it cannot see a long historical performance, and the stock price has fluctuated very much in the past year, with a maximum of 59.85 yuan and a minimum of 19.74 yuan. At present, the static price-earnings ratio of MINISO is 26.58, and the price-to-book ratio is 5.44.
(1) In the economic recession cycle, mass consumption pays more attention to cost performance, similar to the so-called "Japanese-style 100-yen store" style of stores will rise, MINISO is the leader in the field of subdivision, of course, it is not a "dollar store" in the strict sense, positioning more cost-effective "light luxury".
(2) MINISO is not only a retail and wholesale company, it is also a content creation company with its own content creation system and marketing promotion system.
(3) MINISO is a global company with relatively strong anti-risk ability. According to the 2023 financial report, the revenue in the fiscal year (2022.7.1-2023.6.30) was 11.473 billion yuan, the domestic revenue was 7.651 billion yuan, accounting for 66.68%, and the overseas revenue was 3.822 billion yuan, accounting for 33.32%, and as of September 30, 2323, the total number of stores was 6,115, 3,802 were domestic, and 2,313 were overseas.
(4) In an era of consumption in pursuit of efficiency, especially the rise of e-commerce, as ordinary consumers are returning to the basics, they need better face-to-face services, and they need to really touch, take a look, and give it a try.
30. Gong Changliang (Tiger Sniff Author, real name: Zhang Liang)
At present, I am doing work related to short video marketing services, training, incubation, coaching, hosting services, etc., which has also experienced repeated and continuous thinking. From the earliest knowledge payment to the current service-based, and even the next key development of hosting operations and brand (product) incubation and other businesses. From the perspective of business lines, from virtual to real, it is also the result of comprehensive consideration of industry development opportunities, time efficiency, and future market space.
With our own thinking about the industry, e-commerce or sales and customer expansion with the help of new media, the next 3~5 years will still be an important development opportunity. At the same time, we are also very concerned about whether new technologies can bring about the development of new platforms and the rise of new models. From a business perspective, we believe there are three areas to focus on:
(1) Cost-effective daily consumer goods, in the context of consumption downgrade, low-cost and high-quality products, especially daily consumer goods, will be worthy of attention in the next stage.
(2) The service category of exquisite life, also under the influence of the general environment, for home decoration and home furnishing, the transformation of long-term and large investment will be replaced by a more economical model, and the quality of living and life will be improved through soft decoration and other ways.
(3) The operation and customer management of the private domain, although the development of the private domain is jokingly called building a group, building several more groups. However, for the cultivation of loyal customers and the need for long-term repurchase, the private domain is still a very important direction. In particular, the reshaping of customer value combined with the company's own business line and service line is also the foundation of the next stage of private domain operation. Transforming ourselves according to the needs of our customers is no longer a slogan.
Finally, from the current observation, whether it is AI or other hardware technologies, it is not enough to form a subversive transformation of the existing short video or live broadcast platform. Although we are very much looking forward to a new opportunity to quickly enter the new platform to get the first wave of traffic dividends, the reality is still very disappointing.
From the perspective of the industry, I always think that Xiaohongshu is an undervalued company, or an undervalued platform. Many people are looking at it from the perspective of whether it can become a second Douyin. Of course, from a data perspective, the two are not in the same order of magnitude. But compared with other competitors on Douyin, Kuaishou, Video Account, Xiaopo Station and so on. It seems that Xiaohongshu is an outlier.
From the perspective of commercial practical application, especially for first- and second-tier cities, Xiaohongshu's user performance is even better than Douyin. Many people expect Xiaohongshu to move towards the commercialization route of Douyin, but I personally think that although the end of traffic is e-commerce, it is not necessarily the Douyin model.
Xiaohongshu should be able to better interpret interest e-commerce. According to our observations, Xiaohongshu users are more active in their search actions and behaviors, I don't want you to think, I want me to think that this will be more accurate than simple algorithm push, and the conversion rate will be higher.
In addition, younger users seem to prefer Xiaohongshu, or future paying users, who prefer the platform. Personally, I'm actually more worried about Xiaohongshu's Tik Tok, where we'll have to slide up and up and down mechanically and somewhat boringly.
31. Xiao Gai (Chief Content Officer, Mowen Xidong)
I'm in the content industry, making creator-related tool products. The company's name is Mowen Xidong, and the product is Mowen note. Why did you choose this direction for entrepreneurship at that time? The logical judgment is as follows:
(1) With the development of media platforms such as Weibo, WeChat, Douyin, Kuaishou, and Station B, there will be more and more "masters" who will emerge, they will be liked, they will be admired, they will be respected, and they will be followed. In addition to live streaming, creating your own content products is also a way to monetize.
(2) Moreover, in ancient and modern times, "taking people as teachers" is the best way to learn Xi. Since Confucius, some of China's most prestigious people have had protégés. A protégé is actually a student who enters the classroom, learns from a master, and seeks true knowledge.
(3) At the same time, in this era, the material life is gradually abundant, and the new generation of young people is paying more and more attention to spiritual life. And digital content is an important part of spiritual life.
(4) We just want to provide a convenient tool for these masters and protégés, where they can freely create and consume content. On top of the tools, we're also a content investor, providing seed funding to creators who have content capabilities but don't have the startup capital.
Substack is a good benchmark and one that we think is an undervalued company right now. Why?
(1) Now is an era in which content production is greater than consumption. In the face of a large amount of content, platforms such as Douyin, Official Account, and Xiaohongshu classify content to users according to their needs based on recommendation algorithms, thus completing the matching of producers and consumers.
(2) But the recommendation algorithm also has its problems. Now we can see that in order to cater to the recommendation algorithm, creators have to write some content that the algorithm likes to get more traffic. Recommendation algorithms are not necessarily conducive to the generation of good content and rational content. On Douyin, many expressions are deliberately pushing emotions.
(3) We think that in addition to the big tree of recommendation algorithms, there should be a small tree like Substack that can grow. It doesn't rely on recommendation algorithms, but rather a traditional paid subscription relationship like a newspaper. You buy my content, then I'll write the content well, it's as simple as that.
(4) The Substack function is actually very simple, that is, it allows creators to create free or paid columns on the platform, and readers pay to subscribe to the creator's columns, and then receive emails to read the articles in the subscription columns. The platform charges a service fee of 10% to 20% from the subscription fee.
(5) It builds a tool, a simple model, to make it easier for the slogan that content is king to fall. This content can be: articles, photos, podcasts, videos, and its extension is still very large.
32. 栗浩洋（松鼠Ai）
The underlying technology we started to develop 9 years ago uses artificial intelligence education to create a virtual primary and secondary school super teacher to teach students one-on-one. Two years ago, we started to apply technology to learning Xi machines, and this track has suddenly become crazy crowded this year. The sales of Baidu's learning Xi machine have exceeded that of smart speakers by 10 times, and the sales of iFLYTEK's learning Xi machine occupy the first place in the operating income sector, Huawei's learning Xi machine has launched open-screen video advertisements in Baidu, and Xueersi Homework Gang and Ape Tutoring have invested heavily in live broadcast and focus.
The potential of this industry is huge, and parents of China's 200 million primary and secondary school students are currently afraid to let them touch their computers, fearing playing games and videos. If it is a learning machine of 3,00 Xi 0 per capita, it is a market of 600 billion yuan, and the current market share of the head is only 500,000 units per year, which is still in its infancy.
Squirrel AI's Xi machine is the most expensive in the industry. In the market where Baidu, Huawei, Ape Tutoring, and Homework Gang all have an average price of 3,000, and Xueersi and iFLYTEK have an average price of 5,000, the average price of Squirrel AI's learning Xi machine has reached 9,000, and the growth rate has exceeded 300% this year, rising from 23rd to 4th in the industry. The foundation of the growth lies in the personalized teaching experience of artificial intelligence, and the industry's unique patented technology deep neural network knowledge tracking and MCM capability thought model, which can make up for the knowledge loopholes that students learned Xi years ago in the predicament of learning Xi, so as to solve the current problem of repeated learning. The emergence of large models has accelerated the ability of learning Xi personalized algorithms, and the opportunities in the industry come from the results.
The most undervalued company I think is BYD, the future of China's autonomous driving, is the need for vehicle data, the current BYD industry's highest sales will bring the most data, and autonomous driving is a winner-takes-all, so just like from the battery to the electric car, autonomous driving will allow BYD to have a geometric return.
33. Fan Yang (entrepreneur, investor, manager of the official account "Fan Yang")
This year, I am a multi-identity, incubating a cutting-edge technology company of artificial intelligence + biotechnology, also looking at investment opportunities in the field of AI/biotechnology/neuroscience technology with friends overseas, and running my own media and community at other times, I prefer to call myself a Xi and an explorer.
The biggest technological opportunity in the next decade is the next generation of advanced artificial intelligence, because now the "LLM artificial intelligence" represented by CHATGPT is in a transitional stage, and I think the next generation of artificial intelligence will also surpass the "AI represented by DeepMind", which is not only universal, but also close to complete autonomy (learn Xi and guide actions by yourself), and is also very efficient and does not occupy too many resources, until the ultimate goal is to produce conscious AI (first put aside the rigorous definition of AI and consciousness). In the short term, I believe that both the current AI and the next generation of AI will continue to help science make breakthroughs, because real breakthroughs in science have been stalled for decades, and the low-hanging fruits have been picked.
Among the puzzles that AI can solve for science, the most complex areas will be biology and neuroscience (understanding life, and understanding the brain and mind), such as whether AI-designed proteins can give us better food and medicine, and the "super enzymes" used in industry and agriculture? For example, can AI help us better understand our genes and find the most suitable longevity and medical methods for us? For example, can advances in neuroscience and technology help us better understand and control our emotions and spirits?
So, I think the biggest alpha and fork of the tech tree in the next few decades will happen at the intersection of AI x life sciences x neuroscience, changing the engineering itself of software, hardware, and "biologics" as we understand it now. Technology will also get closer and closer to living forms.
In addition, the use of AI in chemistry, materials science, physics, and complex systems (such as weather prediction, economic models, etc.) is also improving. Of course, the more developed science and technology are, the more developed the ultimate rationality, and its "dark side" will also rise, that is, to use non-technical means to help us grow and comfort our body and mind through human care and strength, and those things with "spirituality" are also opportunities worth exploring. In a world that seems more and more futuristic, "nostalgia" is also a strength.
I think the underrated companies that can be seen right now are DeepMind, Google's in-house AI lab company, and the problems they want to solve are also the most socially valuable and impactful. But I think the most underrated companies are the cutting-edge tech companies that we don't see in the media today, where young entrepreneurs in some corner of the world are tinkering with in their garages, basements, civilian labs, who can't be recruited by the tech giants, and we're going to see them come to the fore in the next decade.
34. Di Yeao (Senior Automotive Intelligence Analyst)
He is currently engaged in the intelligent automotive industry, or the field of automotive intelligence. This year has a special meaning for me, coming out of the company's platform and doing my own studio, which is kind of a synthesis of industry observers, analysts and training consultants.
For the automotive industry, the biggest opportunity in the next few years is to replace the joint venture independently, the new force to replace the old force, the full popularization of intelligence and enter the deep water area; affected by the overall economy, the whole pie will not necessarily be bigger, but the logic of the pie has changed. There will be new car companies taking a bigger pie, new suppliers taking more profits, and new business models to replace the original wholesale-retail-after-sales model. Intelligence will definitely play a very important role here.
For companies or departments engaged in automotive intelligence, the correct and reasonable use of large model technology will be the key. The industry is already very volatile, and large-scale model technology can lead to qualitative changes, at least in terms of improving work efficiency, and may also help us create new product forms. Of course, it can also help people in other fields to quickly enter the automotive industry, after all, some industries do not even have the opportunity to roll. Be careful, don't treat the large model as a kind of "flickering" technology, like the blockchain and the metaverse in the past few years, just to save face and be fashionable.
For consulting/user research and analysis organizations related to automotive intelligence, the opportunity lies in how to identify customers. Traditional customers may disappear, or their budgets run out, or they simply don't ask the right questions. But in this industry that can still be rolled up, there are still a lot of new customers rushing into it, how to find them, how to serve them, how to help them find opportunities.
I think the underrated company is Huawei. Some people may say that no one underestimates Huawei. What I want to say is that Huawei still has a very strong stamina in the field of automotive intelligence, much more than we have seen so far, and there are more possibilities in terms of business models and business models. With the collapse of the order of traditional car companies, Huawei will have more voice and room for integration.
Compared with the BAT of the Internet of Vehicles in the past few years, Huawei can and dare to come to the "hard", rather than being limited to the existing advantages of software, ecology and platform; compared with Wei Xiaolimi, it is not as heavy as directly building cars, focusing on intelligence, and the cost is easier to share; compared with traditional car companies, the advantages are more obvious. To use an analogy, Huawei is like Qin in the Warring States Period, although it started on the periphery, but the pace of progress step by step is very steady.
35. 杨婧一(autocarweekly主编)
I'm in the automotive industry, and I'm still here.
The biggest opportunity is still new energy and intelligence, but it is different from the previous rough and chaotic growth.
This year, the penetration rate of new energy has reached 40%, and the main growth rate is driven by range extension and hybrid, which have a growth rate of more than 80%. The success of Ideal and BYD has led many brands to follow suit, believing that the solution of oil and electricity is more adaptable, compared with the average development of pure electric vehicles in the past two years, with a growth rate of only 20% this year. However, in the future, pure electric vehicles will return to the main line of development.
Several changes are starting to appear this year. The first is that energy replenishment is becoming stronger: from the technical side, 800V is rapidly popularizing, the price threshold has been pulled to 200,000, and the charging speed will be greatly accelerated;
The second is that the price of lithium carbonate has dived, and the cost pressure of pure electric vehicles has been reduced for car companies.
The third is the evolution of consumer psychology, many companies that do range extension have found that car owners will use pure electric more in their daily life, so they launch range extension products with large batteries, and after that, their second car is easier to choose pure electric. Therefore, the trend of pure electric resurgence is relatively certain.
In terms of intelligence, it is also divided into several pieces. The first is the cockpit, which is switching from Qualcomm 8155 to the 8295 platform this year, of course, there are other solutions, such as the heterogeneous fusion that NIO is trying, and (Geely) ECARX is AMD, the main purpose is to improve computing power, which will bring many functions to the market, such as being able to support large models. The second is intelligent driving, the head enters the deep water area of urban intelligent driving, and the plans of the head are very similar, and they are fighting for engineering capabilities, Xiaopeng, Huawei, Weilai, and Jiyue are worth paying attention to. In addition to Huawei and Xiaomi, there is also the acquisition of Meizu's Dajiely, and NIO, which manufactures its own mobile phones.
The undervalued company is still NIO. To be honest, this company is not particularly proud this year, and the private assessment it has received is even worse. However, it has reacted and made a lot of organizational structure adjustments, such as sales energy, but the adjustment is slightly late, and it has not been fed back to sales; at the same time, it has cut a lot of short-term business that has no return, and the business will be more focused, and you can expect better books. In fact, in terms of the third quarter, its profit margins are tougher than many companies.
The longed-for part, one is the battery swap alliance, many people think that this is a "bankrupt" business, in fact, the station in some areas is profitable, which means that the business can run through, more people can amortize the cost of entering the game, improve the return on investment, and now there are Chang'an, Geely, and others are on the way;
36. Lin Hua (Law & AI Author)
I work in the game industry, and I focused on two-dimensional in the early stage.
From the perspective of 2023, all game companies are feeling the difficulty of growth, and the growth of user activity indicators and payment indicators is generally under pressure. There are indeed surprises like "Star Dome Railway", but there is almost no harmony to be found in the entire game industry, and it has become a game that covers the entire two-dimensional track. The biggest recent event affecting the gaming industry is the release of the draft of the Measures for the Administration of Online Games, and the industry is waiting to see whether the final policy contains more constructive content.
According to the actual situation in the past two years, the current technology is not enough to support VR or AR games to become mainstream, and the opportunities in the game industry in the next few years will not be in the direction of the metaverse that many people have paid attention to.
In the coming years, I myself am optimistic about the opportunities that AI technology and the integration of games will bring. On the interactive side, the explosion of generative AI has brought about a qualitative change in the gameplay design and user experience of games. An important reason for the prominence of "Against the Cold" is that the effect of AI blessing NPCs is very good, and players will even feel that behind the AI dialogue are the emotions and expressions of real people. Artificial intelligence makes it possible to release many scenes, functions, and interaction designs that were difficult to achieve in previous games, and in terms of user experience, it can be called a liberation. Star Railway's AI performance is also good.
Generatives will also change the backend of games, and AI changes to game programming, art, design, testing, etc., are not immediate, but comprehensive and sustainable. Whether it is the deeper integration of AI in the vertical field of game design, or the progress that AI technology itself can produce in the foreseeable future, it is worth the optimistic expectation of the game industry and users.
There are often social comments and policy opinions, hoping that game companies will increase their investment in gameplay. In fact, gameplay innovation is certainly important for the game, but the difficulty is too high. Continuing 23 years of gaming market performance, there are two categories of newer games that are likely to get more attention. One is the game craze for social gameplay brought about by NetEase's "Egg Boy Party", and Tencent also uses "Yuan Dream Star" to keep up.
The other type is a live-action plot game that suddenly became popular by "It's over! I'm surrounded by beautiful women!". "End" is actually a fusion of visual novel and interactive game, and at this point, there is not much beyond the genre of Orange Light Interactive. Perhaps the most important reason for the success of "End" is to fill the gap in the male-oriented emotional game market. The strong interactivity of the game is completely incomparable to the equally popular short dramas, and the live-action male-oriented emotional game is worth paying attention to as a relatively new subcategory.
There is no doubt that overseas will continue to be the decision of Chinese game companies, and no matter how much growth potential there is in the domestic market, it is inevitable that game companies will be inclined to go overseas. From the perspective of cultural export, the game experience and product capabilities accumulated by Chinese enterprises for more than 20 years have been released overseas, which is not only the acquisition of market increment, but also the opportunity for the dissemination of Chinese culture overseas, which should receive more attention and support.
IP derivatives will be a game-related market that will continue to grow, and peripheral development, especially for the second game, will be a rare starting point and opportunity.
When it comes to the most promising game companies, it's actually hard to say which one must be underestimated, after all, I personally think that 2024 is a year of risk control for the whole industry, and survival is more important than rapid growth.
It is recommended to pay attention to two games, one is the "Black Myth Wukong" that the whole world is waiting for, how hardcore is this game, just wait for the game to be released. The other is a new game that the original Pascal Pact team is still working on and has a chance to be released in 2024. Although the game is kept under wraps throughout the game, all reliable sources have rated it as a work aimed at 3A. Let's see what Lao Yang, the producer of "Pa", will bring us this time.
37. Comment on corpses
Currently in the Internet industry. According to mainstream parlance, the biggest opportunity in the internet industry is AI. But AI is a tool and a means, not an end or an end. In addition, from the current point of view, whether it is the underlying large model or the fine-tuning based on the open source large model, the cost of "making tools" (doing AI) is obviously ridiculously high. Therefore, "using tools" may be a better opportunity than "making tools".
The empowerment of AI tools for small organizations and individuals has challenged the centralization that has naturally developed in the development of the Internet industry over the past 20 years. I have explained this in different levels in three AI-related articles this year ("In Digitalization, the Disappearance of Human Subjectivity", "With AIGC, We Can Discuss the Web 3 Revolution", and "Giant AI, Trapped in the Monopoly of Giants").
To put it simply, everyone is now anxious that with the development of AI, workers will experience mass unemployment. But if it's the other way around, if a company of 10,000 people can replace 9,900 of them because of AI. That means that the 9,900 people it lays off can also use AI to build 99 competitors to the company.
The purpose of modern enterprises is to organize countless people together to achieve tasks that cannot be completed by individuals. Then, as AI empowers individuals to accomplish more and more tasks, it will be the big enterprises themselves that will eventually be dismantled.
In an era when it is difficult to give birth to new Internet giants, I believe that the biggest opportunity for the Internet industry is to take a share of this organizational change. In a way, it is also more in line with the distributed and decentralized impulse of the fundamentalist Internet spirit.
Recommending companies that are listed or well-known to the public seems to be easily understood as investment advice and then overturning, so I will recommend a company that everyone may not know at all: Teamshares.
It is an innovative SME equity sharing platform founded in the United States in 2019. Its goal is to provide a succession + employee equity sharing package for small and medium-sized business owners in the United States who want to retire. The target of its service is not a large enterprise with a perfect modern enterprise management system, but a real "small and medium-sized enterprise". For example, community supermarkets, bars, restaurants, regional moving companies, renovation teams, etc. (more like "business" in the domestic context).
Teamshares believes that this unnecessary closure will lead to a waste of social resources and the loss of some invisible assets (such as professional and technical inheritance and stable social relations).
Therefore, Teamshares will negotiate a plan with the boss who plans to retire, and buy out most of the corporate equity in the hands of the retired boss with 1 million ~ 10 million US dollars at one time, so that the boss can start enjoying retirement life immediately. Then, they are responsible for finding a knowledgeable professional manager to be the CEO, and formulating a set of equity incentive policies, and distributing their equity to all employees of the company, including the external CEO, year by year, until the employees hold 80% of the equity. As a minority shareholder, Teamshares holds shares for a long time, horizontally connecting the cooperation and resources between the invested companies to ensure the long-term stable operation of small and medium-sized enterprises.
The reason why I recommend following this company is simple: by next year, it will be 46 years since China's reform and opening up. China's first and second batch of private enterprises are facing the problem of succession or replacement. So far, neither large nor small businesses seem to have a satisfactory model coming out. So maybe, this is going to be an area of concern.
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