Special Invitation of this Magazine丨Liu Hongjun
When the New Year's bell in 2024 is about to ring, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have closed the New Year's negative line for the second consecutive year without any suspense, but the "little brother" Beijing Stock Exchange Index gave a big surprise in the fourth quarter.
Every New Year's Day, the author will have a trading Xi that has been maintained for many years, that is, from a traditional technical perspective, flipping through the market trends of thousands of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, not only to make an overall look back at the current year's market, but also to have a prospect for the new year's market. Since 2017, the author has published articles in Securities Market Weekly around New Year's Day with the theme of "Review and Prospect of China's Stock Market at the End of the Year and the New Year", and 2023 is no exception.
Market hotspots come and go
The Beijing Stock Exchange rose as a bright spot
After careful combing, we will find that the stocks in the market in 2023 can be divided into the following types:
First, out of the characteristics of bull stocks, a number of stocks with huge profit returns: such as high-tech development, AVIC Electronics, Tsit Wing shares, Shenglong shares, Dragon Media, Wenyi Technology, leading shares, etc. Such stocks are not afraid to fall and move out of the market-independent movement, like a "ray of warm sun" that brings "some hope and hope for the coming year" to other stocks.
Second, a number of stocks with bear market characteristics include: 1) Medical: such as CanSino, Tongce Medical, Bloomage Biotechnology, Changchun High-tech, Bethany, etc.; 2) Electrical appliances: such as Ecovacs, Roborock, etc.; 3) Large consumption: such as Arowana, China Duty Free, Haitian Flavor, Alcoholics, etc.; 4) New energy: such as EVE Lithium Energy, Hanrui Cobalt, Daqo Energy, etc.; 5) Science and Technology Innovation Board: Hoymiles, Hangke Technology, XGIMI Technology, etc.; 5) ST: ST Oceanwide, ST Huayi, ST Bolong, ST Xinmei, ST Hongda, ST Aidi, ST Potian, etc.
Third, a group of other stocks with a "bull stock embryo" pattern: this kind of stock has been trading sideways in the low price or low range for 2 to 4 years after falling from the high point in 2015 or 2017, with no loss in performance, no ST, and no speculation by funds. Stocks with this type of pattern, once they encounter a favorable market or policy outlet, over time, there will be many "bull stock embryos" showing sharp corners. Investors can refer to some low-priced, low-priced, similar to the pre-launch graphics of "dragon stocks", carefully filter and pay attention.
From the perspective of hot trends, in the second half of 2023, some media and game stocks will be quite active in the market. Among them, there is also a phenomenon of "dragon stocks" being sought after and hyped by market funds. For example: Shenglong shares, Dragon Media, Tianlong shares, leading shares, etc.
Perhaps this year is the Year of the Dragon in the traditional Chinese zodiac signs of the Chinese, investors have better expectations, speculation, but more attention should be paid to preventing speculation risks, so as to avoid "Ye Gong good dragon" losses. Many hot stocks will return to their original colors after the limelight, and the most important thing in investing is to protect your principal.
The Beijing Stock Exchange Index is the biggest bright spot among the three markets (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchange) in the latter half of 2023, which not only flips the convention of following the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets over the years, but also walks out of an independent market. Of course, this is also with the support of management and policy. In addition, after a continuous decline, the Beijing Stock Exchange index itself also has the momentum to rebound. In addition, the overall market value of stocks listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange is relatively small, and the rise can reach 30% in a day. The above points are very attractive to market funds, especially those with a profit and risk appetite. I hope that after this rally, it will not fall into a long-term downturn again.
The overseas market has come out of the general upward trend in 2023, and there is a relatively obvious contrast with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. It is expected that China's stock market can catch up, develop its strengths and avoid its weaknesses, and give better returns to investors participating in the market.
The market fell moderately
The technical side awaits resonance
In the market, as a 30-year-old stock investor, the author carefully compares the relevant data of the past such as 325 points in 1994, 1000 points in 2005, 1664 points in 2008, and even 2440 points in 2018.
However, the above four rounds of declines eventually led to the introduction of substantial positive policies, thus leading the stock market out of different levels and different modes of bull market. The various problems exposed in the process of adjusting and falling in this round of the market are both superficial and deep, and many participants can feel them, and the management will see them more clearly. I believe that the dilemma of the final round of the market must be resolved with symptomatic supporting policies. It is hoped that under the guarantee of the "three public principles," the cornerstone of the securities market, China's stock market will be able to prevent the recurrence of incidents similar to those of Zhejiang Guoxiang in the future, and earnestly safeguard the interests of the vast number of small and medium-sized investors.
On the technical side, due to the two consecutive negative on the annual line, the Shanghai and Shenzhen large-cap indices do not have the ability to quickly recover the annual line, and in the future, they will still repeatedly oscillate and test in a range until they test the bottom or low point in the theoretical and technical sense. I believe that it will be the time when the policy will be introduced, and the joint resonance of policy, technology, index and time will be formed, which is the so-called time, place, and people.
The current monthly indicator is in the lower middle position, although it cannot be compared with several bear market bottoms in history, but in this position, investors need to carefully do stock screening.
Looking at the weekly indicators, they have also reached a relatively low level, but they have not yet entered a state of divergence.
In short, although there are still some unfavorable factors in the market in 2024, after all, the vast majority of heavyweight stocks, index stocks, and large-capitalization stocks have been adjusted from the high, high-price, high-value, and high-risk stages of capital speculation in 2021-2022 to their current positions, and the downward momentum has been further released and alleviated, which is conducive to the redistribution and distribution of the market in the future. The only thing to note is that the market may have a multi-kill trend in the final period.
There are two more important time nodes in 2024, one in mid-January and the other in June-August. The overall market should be a process of rebounding, shaking, and re-testing after the low (bottom), in order to find a new positioning for the market in the next few years (or years).
After 30 years of turbulence, China's stock market has experienced 325 points in 1994, 1,000 points in 2005, 1,664 points in 2008 and 2,440 points in 2018, plus the lows (or future lows) tested by this round of adjustment, a total of 5 rounds. It is hoped that from now on, China's stock market will move towards a more market-oriented, standardized and institutionalized securities market with multi-party participation, multi-party win-win.
(This article was published in the December 30 issue of Securities Market Weekly.) The views in this article only represent the author's personal and do not represent the position of this journal. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only examples and do not make buy recommendations. ）