Obsession refers to the attitude of persevering in something and not giving up easily.
Fund managers are often the few people who are most likely to hold obsessions.
In the face of the treacherous general trend and turbulent external environment, a fund manager needs to have a strong "heart" to fight.
But at the same time, such people can easily fall into "obsession", even if the initial research is objective and rational, but there is no guarantee that the subsequent decisions will be the same.
On the last trading day of 2023, Li Bei of Banxia Investment once again posted an article on equity assets.
This time, she used a term that is unique to the futures market - short squeeze.
"Forced short" at the end of the year
Short squeeze and long are both pro-bullish attitudes. However, the attitude of short squeeze is far more intense and extreme than "bullish, long" and so on.
Short forcing means that the increase should be used to force the "shorts" who are "shorting" or not optimistic to admit their mistakes and buy.
In the futures market, sometimes the gains created by the bulls can even force the bears to "liquidate".
December 29, 2023 - On the last trading day of the year, Li Bei released the article "Forced Short" through social platforms.
The attitude is extremely strong
The beginning of the article is the language that boosts the mood: "A large white line, thousands of troops will meet each other".
In the article, Li Bei believes that many investment peers are "underprepared" for stock positions, and gives the following observations:
There are not enough private equity positions, there are not enough insurance positions, there are not enough foreign positions, public funds seem to have enough positions, but it can be considered that they do not, and industrial capital and national teams buy the bottom chips.
Investment peers do not have enough positions, and in her opinion, when the new year begins, these peers will encounter a "layoff" crisis:
"(Private equity, insurance, public offering, foreign capital) has been losing money for two or three consecutive years, falling as much as the benchmark, or even more than the benchmark, if it rises and can't keep up, it can only be laid off. ”
Between the words, Li Bei has expectations for the buyer institutions with insufficient positions to face the "imminent" rise and how to avoid the embarrassing situation of being at a loss
The "obsession" of going long
After this year's National Day holiday, Li Bei issued a bullish voice several times, which attracted much attention from the market.
She wrote in October: next year, the U.S. economy is likely to have a recession that exceeds market expectations, U.S. interest rates will also fall significantly, and the U.S. will enter a multi-year depreciation cycle. As a result, the renminbi and Chinese equities entered a bull market.
Li Bei told holders in the monthly report of the fund in November: optimistic about the large-cap stocks represented by the CSI 300 index.
In December, she participated in several public events, reiterating that Chinese investors who hold US dollar assets may be short on the future rally of RMB assets.
It is reported that in September, October, and November 2023, Li Bei's representative products only have a net long position in stock assets for three consecutive months, and there is no long position in other assets.
This shows her optimistic "bet" on equity assets – expecting a bull market in 2024 that will bottom out.
According to Li Bei's original words in the article "Forcing the Sky", "The beginning of next year is a very important change point. ”
She not only has an "obsession" with the stock market, but also has an "obsession" with the time.
The "solid earnings" disappear
According to the private placement network, the products of Banxia Investment, led by Li Bei, focus on multi-asset strategies, but the net value curve has a high correlation with stock assets.
A product marked with the word "stable", as of December 22 this year, the cumulative return in the past two years was -19.35%. In the same period, the CSI All Bond Index and the South China Commodity Index both had positive returns, at 8.78% and 28.40% respectively.
The comparison found that the commodity asset index has performed well in the past two years, but Li Bei's products have not been reflected, and are more close to the "ups and downs" of the CSI 300 index.
Macro private equity in "change"
According to AMAC, the entrusted scale of Banxia Investment exceeds 10 billion yuan.
Strictly speaking, Li Bei is a macro hedge fund manager, and Banxia Investment's products focus on macro strategies.
The so-called macro hedging strategy predicts the changes in the prices of major financial assets through the analysis of changes in the global macroeconomic outlook, and then buys or sells short between different asset classes such as foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, futures, and commodities.
In fact, a macro hedging strategy can hedge the risks associated with betting on a single asset.
However, Li Bei's statements in recent months have made her look quite like a long-only equity fund manager.
What will be the fate of this 10 billion macro private equity in 2024?
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