The United States believes that as long as Iran has a sufficient amount of nuclear fuel, it will only be a few months from this moment to obtain the first nuclear bomb. So next year will be a crucial turning point.
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As the Red Sea crisis continues, Iran announced an increase in the production of weapons-grade enriched uranium, an incident that has aroused great concern in the United States. Iran's current enrichment of enriched uranium is about three kilograms per month, and now Iran says it will increase it to nine kilograms per month, which is equivalent to a 60 percent increase.
Picture interpretation: Iranian nuclear facilities
Judging from Iran's nuclear weapons resources in the past, it is estimated that Iran's enriched uranium can make about 10 nuclear bombs. The number is uncertain, but it can only be said that it is around 10, and Iran currently operates a large number of centrifuges at the Natanz fuel enrichment plant, where the United States believes it can produce weapons-grade nuclear fuel.
Therefore, we can judge that Iran's goal is to acquire nuclear weapons, and this is the core contradiction between the United States and Iran. Once Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it can defend itself and establish a nuclear deterrent capability against the United States, but the American camp, including Israel, clearly does not want Iran to acquire such a capability.
Picture interpretation: Iranian nuclear facilities
Israel believes that when Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it will be able to launch a nuclear strike against Israel in combination with ballistic missiles. Israel's land area is very small, and once it encounters a nuclear strike, it will inevitably be completely annihilated, and it will not be able to withstand any level of nuclear deterrence, after all, Israel does not have any strategic depth. So for Israel and the United States, their bottom line is to resolutely not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. From the perspective of Iran's national security, only by acquiring nuclear weapons can it seek security, and it must use nuclear weapons to defend itself, so there is nothing wrong with Iran's logic.
This is the problem between the two sides, and it is also the red line of whether there will be a war between the two sides, and once the United States determines that Iran can obtain nuclear weapons, then the possibility of conflict is very high.
Interpretation of the image: Iranian ballistic missiles
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been going on for several months now, and Iran has not taken the initiative to end the conflict so far, and it is the Houthis that have clashed with the United States, which has a relatively close relationship with Iran. By doing so, Iran must maintain its nuclear weapons production and research and development capabilities, which is the main reason why Iran does not dare to easily confront the United States head-on.
Before mastering nuclear weapons, it is not very beneficial for Iran to engage the US military. As of December 2023, Iran is intending to increase its production of enriched uranium. Next year will be a turning point, as the West assesses that Iran will be able to produce about 10 or so nuclear weapons after refining these enriched uraniums into weapons-grade ones.
Interpretation of the image: Iranian ballistic missiles
The United States believes that as long as Iran has a sufficient amount of nuclear fuel, it will only be a few months from this moment to obtain the first nuclear bomb.
So next year will be a crucial turning point. If the U.S. continues to adopt an aggressive posture toward Iran and does not urge Israel to stop its air strikes on Gaza, then it is very likely that Iran will exert stronger pressure on Israel by building nuclear weapons to force Israel to stop air strikes on Gaza. This article was first published exclusively by @川陀智库 and is not reproduced in any form. #文章首发挑战赛#