Reporter | Anjing
It has been 10 days since the United States announced the establishment of a 20-nation Red Sea escort alliance, and the deterrent effect of escort has not yet been revealed.
Instead of stopping their attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, Yemen's Houthis have stepped up their efforts. There are also divisions within the escort alliance, with some countries choosing to keep their distance from the alliance and others reluctant to send warships to participate.
There are also differences among shipping companies. Maersk is preparing to restart shipping to the southern Red Sea, while Hapag-Lloyd and other companies still choose to avoid the Red Sea. Due to the detour to the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, shipping companies have announced freight increases.
The U.S. Central Command posted on social media platforms on December 29 that the USS Mason intercepted drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis in the southern part of the Red Sea on the 28th, when there were 18 ships in the area, and the attack caused no injuries or damage to the ships.
Thursday's attack was the 22nd by Houthis against merchant ships in the Red Sea since mid-October. After the formation of the escort alliance, the Houthis refused to show weakness and also fought with the US aircraft carrier strike group this week.
On Tuesday, the U.S. military shot down 12 drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles and two cruise missiles in 10 hours, according to a statement from the U.S. Central Command. On the same day, the US military used the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, and F/A-18 "Hornet" fighters took off from the Eisenhower aircraft carrier to intercept Houthi drones and missiles together with the USS Raboun missile destroyer.
It was also the first time since the current Red Sea crisis that the Houthis launched a drone and missile attack of this magnitude, when 18 ships were sailing in the southern part of the Red Sea.
The Houthis have threatened that if the United States attacks Yemen or sends soldiers, the group will put the United States in a situation worse than the wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam. Judging by the current progress, the Houthis have no intention of halting the Red Sea operation. The Red Sea attacks have expanded the group's influence and added weight to the Houthi distribution of power in Yemen in the future.
The United States, which is about to start its presidential election, has no intention of being drawn into a new war in the Middle East. At present, the escort coalition's strategy in the Red Sea is to intercept drones and missiles fired at merchant ships, and it has not yet taken the initiative to attack Houthi strongholds.
Salvatore Mercogliano, a naval expert at Campbell University in North Carolina, said in an interview that the U.S. Navy is equipped enough to intercept the weapons currently being fired by the Houthis in the Red Sea. But if the Houthis expand their operations in the Red Sea, the coalition will face serious challenges.
He noted that the Houthis have not yet launched a real "drone swarm" attack in the Red Sea – sending dozens of drones at a time, a tactic that has been used several times in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Once the Houthis launch a drone swarm attack, the limited number of US warships will be overwhelmed, and the drones are likely to evade the interception and hit the merchant ships.
Ammunition supply is also a key issue that the US military needs to solve. At present, the US military can only reload ammunition at the US military base in Djibouti, East Africa, which is located on the western side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the southern part of the Red Sea, across the strait from Yemen.
This means that for the escort alliance, investing more warships can enhance the escort effect. However, due to the differences caused by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in various countries, some US allies are hesitant to send warships to join the escort alliance.
Of the 20 members of the escort alliance, the United States has disclosed the identities of only 10 countries, including its NATO allies. But after the list was announced, Spain expressed its displeasure. According to Spanish media reports, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez learned from social media that Spain had joined the Red Sea escort alliance.
Sánchez then asked the Spanish ambassador to the EU to vote a veto on the participation of the EU Navy in Operation Atlanta, a fight against Somali pirates, in the Red Sea escort. This Wednesday, Sánchez made it clear that Spain does not consider it necessary for Operation Atlanta to participate in the Red Sea operation.
Although France supported the convoy alliance, it refused to hand over the command of the French warships to the United States and the convoy alliance, reiterating that the French warships could only be commanded by the French army. France currently has a frigate deployed in the Red Sea.
Italy said it would send ships to the southern part of the Red Sea, but stressed that the move was not an escort coalition operation, but at the request of Italian shipowners. Australia, for its part, directly rejected the United States' request to send warships and only announced that it would send six servicemen to escort ships in the Red Sea. Australia's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Marles stressed that Australia's strategic focus is on the Indo-Pacific region, not the Middle East.
Also rejecting the United States is Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials revealed that the country did not join the escort alliance at the invitation of the United States due to the country's internal security. Saudi Arabia is seeking to end a nine-year-old civil war in Yemen in which Saudi Arabia assisted the Yemeni government in its fight against the Houthis.
Yemen's civil war has remained relatively calm after the ceasefire expired after the parties to the civil war reached a temporary ceasefire last year. After the easing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran this year, direct talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis began.
As the Houthis continue their Red Sea attacks, over the weekend, the United Nations special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, announced that the parties to the civil war in Yemen had pledged to take steps to achieve a nationwide ceasefire, resume oil exports, ease restrictions on Sana'a International Airport and the port of Hodeidah, and prepare for the resumption of an "inclusive political process."
This is good news for both Yemen and Saudi Arabia. In 2019, Houthis launched missile and drone strikes from northern Yemen on Saudi oil fields in eastern China, halving Saudi oil production. So far this year, the Houthis have not launched attacks on Saudi energy facilities.
Seeing the internal divisions within the escort coalition and the unabated Houthi attacks, some shipping giants are reluctant to resume Red Sea transportation for the time being. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd said on Wednesday that the Red Sea remains dangerous and that it will continue to detour cargo ships to the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.
Maersk is preparing to resume transportation to the southern part of the Red Sea in the near future. Customer information released by the company on Wednesday showed that dozens of cargo ships will pass through the Suez Canal in the northern Red Sea as planned. CMA CGM is also preparing to allow more cargo ships to pass through the Suez Canal.
However, in the intensive Houthi attack on Tuesday, a container ship of another shipping giant, Mediterranean Shipping Company, was targeted, while it was on its way from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan. There were no casualties as a result of the attack, and MSC will carry out a full assessment of the hull.
Due to the diversion of many ships to the Cape of Good Hope, the transit time is longer and the cost is rising, and many shipping giants have raised freight rates. Maersk announced an additional $700 for a 20-foot standard container shipped from China to Northern Europe, and $500 per standard container shipped to the East Coast of North America. CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd also announced price increases.