GDP in 2023 or less than $18 trillion?

GDP in 2023 may be less than $18 trillion, and may even be lower than last year.

With 2 days left, 2023 will be over, will this year's economic growth rate be able to achieve the target set at the beginning of the year?

The economic data for the first three quarters are already out. The growth rate in the first quarter was 4.5%, which was stable and stable, and the epidemic had just been released, and the Spring Festival was superimposed, and consumption ushered in a big rebound, which contributed a lot.

The 6.3% growth rate in the second quarter looks good, but the growth rate was only 0.4% in the same period last year, and the low base effect pushed the growth rate higher. The two-year average growth rate is only 3.35%, which is very low. Growth fell to 4.9% in the third quarter, mainly due to the stabilisation of consumption, the continued weakness of external demand, and the absence of a low base.

However, in the first three quarters, the mainland achieved a growth rate of 5.2%, more than twice that of the United States, ranking second among the world's top 20 economies, second only to India's growth rate.

According to the "2024 Economic and Financial Outlook Report" released by the Bank of China Research Institute, the mainland's economic growth rate is expected to reach 5.6% in the fourth quarter.

A growth rate of 5.6% should not be a problem, because the troika is all in force. First of all, consumption showed a rapid recovery momentum, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in October and a surge of 10.1% in November, while the growth of social zero in the first three quarters was only 6.8%.

In terms of large-scale consumption, retail sales of automobiles increased by 11.4% year-on-year in October and 14.7% in November. Mobile phone shipments increased by 19.7% year-on-year in October and 12.7% in November, both of which are good.

Looking at exports, imports and exports increased in November, and exports both achieved 0.5% growth in dollar terms, especially for the United States, which ended a 14-month decline and increased by 9.6% year-on-year. Exports are starting to pick up, and it is expected that the fourth quarter will no longer be a drag.

In addition, the growth rate of 2.9% in the same period last year is also a relatively low base, so it will push up the growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year.

If the growth rate can reach 5.6% in the fourth quarter, then the growth in 2023 will reach 5.3%, exceeding the 5% growth target set at the beginning of the year.

In 2022, the mainland's GDP will be 121.02 trillion yuan, and at a growth rate of 5.3%, what will be the GDP in 2023?

Since the beginning of this year, the mainland CPI and PPI have shown negative growth in many months, and the prices of goods and services are not rising, but falling, which will make the nominal increase in GDP smaller, according to the data of the first three quarters, GDP is expected to reach 126.7 trillion yuan in 2023.

Converted to US dollars, it is less than 18 trillion US dollars, compared to 17.96 trillion US dollars last year, so it is likely to be lower than last year. The main reason is the depreciation of the RMB, which will average at 7.0148 against the US dollar in the first three quarters of 2023, a year-on-year depreciation of 5.82%, and is expected to be similar in the fourth quarter.

Looking at the United States, GDP in the first three quarters increased by 2.5% year-on-year, reaching a total of $20.28 trillion. Driven by many factors such as high prices and revised statistical rules, GDP is likely to reach $27.4 trillion in 2023. In this way, in 2023, the mainland's GDP may be equivalent to 65.7% of the United States, and last year it was close to 70%, and the GDP gap between China and the United States has widened.

For this year's economic growth, many people don't seem to feel it, saying that business is still difficult to do, companies are still laying off employees, the youth unemployment rate has not been low, and online car-hailing drivers are saturated.

According to official data, in the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 83.2% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 4.4 percentage points. Some people may say, aren't they all saving money and not spending?

Let's take a look at the two charts released by Hurun Report, one is about the consumer price index. In 2023, the overall level of consumer prices of China's high-net-worth individuals will rise by 5.4%, while the national consumer price level will be -0.3%, which shows that the rich are still spending like crazy.

As can be seen from another chart, the consumer prices of yachts and airplanes increased by 14.8% year-on-year, accessories and skin care products increased by 9.4% year-on-year, high-end tobacco, alcohol and tea increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and only real estate increased by -0.2%.

Yesterday, Xiaomi released its first car, SU7, although the price was not announced, the industry believes that it should be more than 300,000 yuan. If you look closely, China's new energy vehicles are selling more and more expensive, and the price of the M9 starts at 469,800 yuan a few days ago. They dare to sell so expensive, which shows that the consumption potential of the mid-to-high-end market is huge.

In fact, it is a very realistic situation, even in good economic times, ordinary people do not have much extra consumption except for basic daily expenses. As Cao Dewang said, of China's 1.4 billion people, only 200 million people really have spending power.

The Bank of China Research Institute predicts that the mainland's GDP will grow by about 5% in 2024, while the S&P, one of the three major international rating agencies, predicts 4.6% and Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, 4.8%. Looking at these predictions, do you think it will be better?