The tide of listing is forming a huge wave in the field of new energy intelligent vehicles in China, and wants to push some enterprises in the industrial chain to a climax.
Since the second half of this year, whether it is a vehicle, or a power battery, autonomous driving and other related manufacturers, there have been news of seeking to go public.
First of all, in the field of power batteries. At the beginning of December this year, it was reported that CATL (300750) postponed its plan to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after postponing its plan to list in Switzerland.
Secondly, in the field of autonomous driving. On December 20, Zhixing Technology was officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with the stock code of "1274". Since the end of last year, in addition to Zhixing Technology, 10 domestic autonomous driving-related companies (including Hesai Technology, which has been successfully listed), including WeRide Zhixing, Black Sesame (000716) Intelligence, and Suteng Juchuang, have applied for or successfully applied for IPOs.
In the above two areas, one is that there is so much money that it overflows, and the other is that it is so little that it is on the verge of burning out. As the downstream of the new energy intelligent vehicle terminal, the main engine factory is in an awkward position between the two: there is money, but not much, it is enough now, but not necessarily in the future.
In this regard, compared with the power battery manufacturers that are still strong in profit momentum and the autonomous driving manufacturers with a long commercialization cycle, the industry pays more attention to the OEMs at the critical point of profitability.
In the new position, only when you get the money can you have the right to speak
After years of experience and washing, the domestic new energy vehicle market assessment system is becoming strict, and there is no doubt that the battle between car companies is fierce.
However, I have to admit that to this day, the competition pattern of the domestic new energy vehicle market is still not very clear, the head and waist camps are still difficult to determine, and the echelon position of car companies is not solid.
Now 2023 is coming to an end, but the smoke of competition will not dissipate at the end of the year. For the prediction of the intensity of competition in the future, most car companies are pessimistic.
He Xiaopeng has publicly stated that the knockout competition has just begun, and the sales scale of 3 million vehicles in the future is just the ticket for car companies. In a new decade from now, there will be only eight mainstream car companies left. Moreover, these eight companies need to have at least three or five million sales in the global market share, and the life and death line of mid-to-high-end models is 3 million, while low-end models need 5 million.
Source: Screenshot of He Xiaopeng's Weibo
He also does not think that Xpeng Motors has opened a gap with other new forces, and pointed out: "Even if it is the first new force, it is useless, because from the perspective of the future competitive situation, no matter how many 50,000 or 100,000 units are there, they will not survive......
To sell and seize the market, the core competitiveness behind it is higher cost performance and lower vehicle product prices.
In fact, the price war has been fought until now, and car companies have long been surprised.
Approaching the end of the year, the "price war" throughout the year has not subsided. According to incomplete statistics from Gasgoo, since December, nearly 20 car companies have launched price reduction promotions. Among them, not only representatives of new forces, but also joint venture brands, and more state-owned car companies have joined the battle.
For next year, most of the industry artificially, the price war shows no signs of stopping. "This year is a 'price war' in the auto industry, and next year may enter a 'life and death war'. For the next 3-5 years, Wang Chuanfu believes that the auto market as a whole or different market segments will continue to fight price wars. At the same time, Wang Chuanfu also said that if car companies do not rush up in the next 3-5 years, there will be no chance.
Behind the price war is the capital reserve capacity of car companies. There are many sources of funds, and the listed Xpeng, Leap, NIO and Ideal have all set an example: either replace cooperation, sell shares, or make money.
But for car companies that have not yet been listed: IPO is their first choice for the future "blood".
Go public, raise capital, and stay alive
In the near future, two major car companies have successively broken the news of listing.
Among them, Bloomberg reported that IDG Capital is considering acquiring nearly US$1 billion (currently about 7.18 billion yuan) of Chery Holdings' parent company, and Chery Automobile is planning to submit an initial public offering (IPO) application as soon as next year, possibly seeking a valuation of up to 150 billion yuan.
In this regard, a senior executive of Chery told relevant media: "The company is actively preparing for listing. ”
Source: Chery
In addition, on December 15, Gasgoo learned that some media reported that, according to people familiar with the matter, AVATR Technology, a tripartite cooperation company of Changan, Huawei and CATL, is considering going public in Hong Kong in 2025.
Although Gasgoo asked people close to AVATR Technology about the news, the other party said that they did not know yet, but the company has gone through multiple rounds of financing before, and the listing plan is not unusual, and Changan's expectations for AVATR Technology have long been known.
In the same month, Gasgoo learned that AVATR Technology announced that Zhu Huarong, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Changan Automobile (000625), served as the chairman of AVATR Technology. Previously, at the AVATR press conference, Zhu Huarong also said: "As long as AVATR needs it, Changan Automobile will give it full support, ask for money for money, people for people, and technology for technology!"
Now, Zhu Huarong has "dedicated" himself to AVATR Technology, and his high hopes for the company are needless to say.
In fact, before this, a number of car companies have announced financing or planned IPOs. New energy vehicle brands such as GAC Aion, Dongfeng Lantu, SAIC Zhiji, ZEEKR, and Gaohe Automobile have all formulated independent listing plans.
Among the above-mentioned car companies, the closest to IPO may be ZEEKR.
Source: Zeekr
As early as October 2022, Geely disclosed for the first time Zeekr's spin-off and listing plan. In February 2023, Zeekr received another $750 million in funding, valuing it at about $13 billion. In August this year, ZEEKR obtained the "Notice of Filing for Overseas Issuance and Listing" from the China Securities Commission, and plans to list on the U.S. stock market.
However, it is worth noting that at present, most of the above-mentioned car companies are listed more than the actual action, many of which have shouted the slogan of listing for many years, but the listing time has been pushed again and again.
Is now a good time to go public?
GAC Aion is a typical example of this.
At the end of 2022, GAC Aion completed the largest single private placement financing of 18.294 billion yuan in the domestic new energy vehicle industry, successfully pushing the valuation to the level of 100 billion yuan, becoming the most highly valued enterprise of unlisted new energy vehicle companies in China.
At that time, some industry estimates that according to Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group (601238), who revealed that 30% of the equity was exchanged for 50 billion yuan in financing, the corresponding valuation of GAC Aion was about 170 billion yuan, which exceeded the current market value of GAC Group.
Under the huge momentum, even Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aion, once revealed: "The company no longer has a financing plan before the IPO." ”
Such a big tone pushed GAC Aion's sprint to the climax of "the first share of new energy vehicles on the science and technology innovation board".
However, GAC Aion's enthusiasm for listing did not last long. Entering 2023, the company's IPO-related news has gradually decreased, and the actual action has gradually slowed down.
At the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year, Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, also changed his tone to GAC Aion's IPO: "Strive to achieve it this year".
There is a lot of helplessness behind the word "striving". Now, the New Year is approaching, and the sound of GAC Aion's IPO bell has not yet sounded as scheduled.
Source: GAC Aion
In this regard, some analysts said that GAC Aion's listing was greatly affected by the objective environment.
First of all, look at the first target of GAC Aion's listing - A-shares, its trend is not optimistic, and even together with Hong Kong stocks, most of the listed car companies are in a state of hovering or downward, and there are almost no companies that can continue to rise.
In addition, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that it would tighten the pace of IPOs in stages to promote the dynamic balance between investment and financing. With GAC Aion's valuation level, its financing scale is bound to be within the "tightening" range, which may also affect the progress of GAC Aion's IPO.
Looking at U.S. stocks, since the beginning of this year, affected by the world economic downturn, auto stocks in U.S. stocks have also been difficult to boost.
In fact, from the perspective of the objective environment of listing, the slowdown in the pace of GAC Aion's listing may also be the epitome of the obstacles to the listing of most new energy vehicle companies in China.
What's more noteworthy is that even if it is successfully listed, the test faced by car companies will not be reduced by half a point.
A relevant practitioner in the industry said: "The listing time of the head new power enterprises is very early, but every time before and after the semi-annual report and annual report, public opinion will bring unprecedented pressure to the brand. As a result of stepping into the capital market, some trends in technology research and development and sales adjustments will be amplified by investors' buying and selling. At the same time, although R&D and channels have been supported by financing, once the effect is less than expected, it will also cause a chain reaction. ”
That's true. As mentioned above, looking at the new energy vehicle companies that have been successfully listed in China, they are still continuing to raise funds through various ways after their IPOs.
To a large extent, financing is just a means of survival, but know that the future is unknown, and even if it dies in the future, it is better to stop in the present.
To borrow a sentence from Li Xiang: "Even if some people borrow corpses to return their souls, they will die in the end." However, the opportunities of life are all surfaced in the struggle, lying quietly in the tide, and the final result is only "a dead end".
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