In the world's 2023, the wind will be more and the snow will be more. While the global economy is slowing down, the geopolitical landscape is accelerating, regional conflicts are erupting at many points, humanitarian crises continue to worsen, and traditional and non-traditional security risks such as food, energy, disasters, and ecology are sharply overlapping and overlapping. The manifestations of division, antagonism, confusion, wandering, and anxiety are prominent, the mentality of instability and uncertainty is widespread, and the world is facing new choices in a chaotic and intertwined world.
However, in this year's turbulent waves, the thinking about the future and destiny of mankind has never been more urgent and hot. From Cape Town and Johannesburg to Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and then to San Francisco, the dawn of consensus illuminates the path of development, security and civilization, promotes the turnaround of relations between major countries, promotes the awakening of the Global South, and promotes the improvement of global governance.
Measure up the situation, wait for the movement and stillness. "We must have the determination to calmly fly through the turbulent clouds, and work together to deal with various global risks and challenges in an attitude of being responsible to history, the people and the world, so as to create a bright future of peace, development, cooperation and win-win results for future generations. Chinese President Xi Jinping's keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation pointed out the direction and path of progress on how to cope with the turbulent changes, which was widely responded to and supported by the international community.
New Diseases Frequently emerge in the geopolitical security situation
In 2023, many "powder kegs" around the world will be detonated, conflicts will arise one after another, and an atmosphere of confrontation will pervade. Sanctions, hegemony, interference, and double standards can be seen everywhere, casting shadows on the old thinking and order of the jungle, zero-sum games, and winner-takes-all. Old grievances and new enmities are difficult to resolve, and multiple crises are blended and escalated. According to the annual report of the British Institute for International Strategic Studies, there will be as many as 183 regional and local conflicts in the world in 2023, the highest number in nearly three decades.
This year, the Ukraine crisis dragged on.
The parties are "exhausted" into their second year of fatigue. The two sides of the conflict are consuming money, decision-making, and public opinion. Only the United States is reaping the benefits, and the US government has constantly lobbied Congress for military aid to Ukraine and dragged Russia down; other NATO countries are mired in "family law and gang rules" and are bitterly calculating gains and losses; Ukraine has repeatedly urged Western aid in the midst of exhaustion and is constantly waiting to see the escalation of political polarization in the US political arena; and Russia has gradually adapted to the normal state of war and put on a posture of endurance warfare. In the meantime, the Wagner incident has added more sharp and fierce contradictions to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to United Nations statistics, more than 10,000 civilians have been killed or injured in the 21 months since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. But Western countries will not easily give up the game of marionettes, and will continue to reap the box office of tragedy as long as it is still profitable. The trend of protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still obvious.
On November 25, Ukrainian Red Cross workers clean up and rescue a residential building that was hit by an airstrike in Kyiv. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Roman Petushkov)
This year, a strong earthquake broke out on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan threatened on September 30 that the U.S. would make "the Middle East calmer than it has been in the past 20 years." Just seven days later, a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict erupted. Hamas launched the "Al-Aqsa flood" operation against Israel, which caused heavy casualties, and Israel immediately launched strikes on tens of thousands of targets in the Gaza Strip, killing more than 20,000 Palestinians and injuring more than 50,000. This round of conflict has dealt a heavy blow to the geopolitics of the Middle East and declared the complete failure of US Middle East policy. Around the two conflicts between Palestine and Israel and Russia-Ukraine, the United States has contradicted itself in its rhetoric of accusing Russia and favoring Israel, and its attitude of aiding Ukraine and ignoring Palestine is in stark contrast. The draft resolution of the Security Council has been aborted several times, and the US policy of maintaining its hegemony is clearly visible. The backlash in Lebanon, Iran, Syria and elsewhere has accelerated as Yemen's Houthis launch direct operations against Israeli-related targets in the Red Sea. The danger of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict expanding and complicating is high and urgent.
People receive relief food in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah on 19 November. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Rizek Abduljawad)
This year, multiple crises erupted.
Globally, civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen have not subsided, and fierce fighting has erupted in Sudan for months, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of more than 7 million people. In Asia and Europe, Azerbaijan and Armenia are engaged in a confrontation over the Nagorno-Karabakh region; in Latin America, Venezuela, and Guyana are on tense alert for disputes over the Ethiopian region; on the Korean Peninsula, US strategic nuclear submarines have arrived in the ROK, the United States and the ROK have expanded the scale of joint military exercises, and the DPRK has launched its first military reconnaissance satellite, and the situation on the peninsula has heated up; in Southeast Asia, the local armed conflict in northern Myanmar has lasted for several months; and the "coup d'état epidemic" has spread in Africa, with coups d'état occurring in Niger and Gabon and attempted coups d'état in Guinea-Bissau. At one point, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said it would send troops to intervene in the situation in Niger, which provoked a strong backlash from Mali and Burkina Faso and tensions in the region.
The global economic recovery is difficult
In 2023, the impact and impact of geopolitics, great power competition, regional conflicts, natural disasters, and climate change on the world economy will become more and more obvious. The global economy urgently needs to be optimized as a whole and treated differentially.
This year, global economic growth was sluggish.
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, global economic growth is expected to be only 2.9 percent this year. Since last year, the Federal Reserve has continuously raised interest rates, forcing the dollar back and "harvesting" the world again, but it has also caused the collapse of many banks such as Silicon Valley Bank, which not only reflects the antecedents of the accumulation of risks of uncontrolled quantitative easing, but also exposes the consequences of the risk of crazy interest rate hikes. Affected by the depreciation of the yen and the effects of long-term slow growth, Japan is predicted by international institutions to be the third largest economy behind Germany, which itself is in recession. The European Commission predicts that many countries such as Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Sweden will experience economic downturns of less than 1 percentage point this year. Compared with the stagnation of the European Union, Asia continues to contribute most of the global economic growth, and China's economy maintains a positive and long-term upward trend. The United Nations' "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023" report and the International Monetary Fund raised China's economic growth forecast to 5.3% and 5.4% respectively this year, predicting that China's contribution to global economic growth will still reach one-third.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington on November 1. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Aaron)
This was the year in which trade fragmentation emerged.
This year, global trade has performed far less than expected under the influence of geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism, with trade imbalances, frequent frictions, and sanctions and inward-looking policies of some countries undermining trade liberalization and diversification, and ossifying the resilience of global value chains. The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade in goods will increase by only 0.8% year-on-year this year. The UNCTAD study found that the diversity of trading partners is decreasing, trade fragmentation is evident, and "bilateral trade is shifting in the direction of prioritizing trade with countries that share political values". The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mentions the word "fragmentation" more than 170 times in this year's World Economic Outlook report, warning that "geopolitical fragmentation" is causing significant damage to industrial and supply chains, and that "countries are fragmented into blocs that trade only with each other...... It could reduce global GDP by 7% for the whole year."
On February 8, at the ruins of an earthquake in Hatay, Turkey, local residents wait for news from their loved ones. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Sha Dati
This year, natural disasters intensified and man-made disasters were numerous.
This year, earthquakes are still frequent around the world, with strong earthquakes in Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Morocco, and Gansu, China. Among them, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in southern Turkey killed more than 50,000 people. This year is also the hottest year in human history on record, and the world economy has been exacerbated by meteorological disasters such as heat waves, torrential rains, floods, and wildfires. Italy, Tunisia and Morocco reported extreme heat of 48.2 degrees Celsius, 49 degrees Celsius and 50.4 degrees Celsius respectively, Bangladesh, the United States, China, Indonesia, Nigeria and Kenya suffered heavy rains, hurricanes caused dam bursts and floods in Libya, causing heavy casualties, Canadian wildfires lasted for nearly half a year and burned more than 180,000 square kilometers, and the Maui wildfires in Hawaii killed at least 99 people in the United States...... In the face of environmental upheaval, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "The era of global warming is over, and the era of global boiling has arrived." The 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reached the "UAE Consensus" on these pressing climate issues.
Dynamic Checks and Balances The multipolar order is accelerating its integrated development
In 2023, major disagreements, debates, and deadlocks around regional conflicts, arms races, humanitarian disasters, refugee crises, financial bullying, trade barriers, anti-globalization, climate negotiations, nuclear sewage discharge, and artificial intelligence regulation are not uncommon.
This year, the multipolar order is evolving.
In his opening remarks at this year's General Debate of the UN General Assembly, Guterres said that only a multipolar world can "bring new opportunities for justice and balance in international relations", and only multilateral positions can unite "common responsibilities, common ideas, and common ways forward". At present, the competition between East and West, and the differences between North and South all show that the unipolar order can no longer deal with a number of global problems, and that unipolar hegemony can no longer control the world through war and currency. This year, the market for the theory of de-globalization has shrunk, and conspiracies such as "de-risking" have been constantly exposed. Western-dominated exclusive clubs have significantly declined in popularity, and more inclusive collaborative friend groups are gaining popularity.
This year, the "Global South" is awakening.
This year has been a year of more assertiveness and maturity for the Global South. Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries joined the BRICS mechanism, the African Union became a permanent member of the G20, and the "Group of 77 and China" Havana Summit issued a voice for the "Global South" to strengthen solidarity and cooperation. In Africa, the dismal withdrawal of French troops from Niger has led to a wave of anti-colonial suzerainty in many parts of Africa; in South America, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Inácio Luiz Inácio Lu......iz Inácio Abás. A harmonious way reflects international relations.
This is the scene of the BRICS Business Forum in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 22. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Yahui
This year, international relations are calibrating.
This year, global diplomacy has been active, international relations have been adjusted in multiple dimensions, some bilateral relations have been revised, and historic interactions have been highlighted. The President of Iran visited Saudi Arabia, the President of Russia visited the Middle East, the President of Syria went to Hangzhou to attend the opening ceremony of the Asian Games, the China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held again after four years, and the ASEAN and Gulf Arab countries held a rare summit...... In the meantime, China has become the top focus of global affairs. Leaders of Spain, France, Australia, and other Western countries have visited China and worked with China to determine the direction of development of bilateral relations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has visited China twice to show the outside world that "decoupling and breaking the chain" will not work. Between China and the United States, the US Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, the Governor of California, and Kissinger, an old friend of the Chinese, have all visited China. In November, President Xi Jinping flew across the Pacific Ocean to begin his trip to San Francisco. The China-US summit in San Francisco has attracted worldwide attention, fruitful results and far-reaching implications, adding stability to China-US relations, bringing new impetus to Asia-Pacific cooperation, and injecting positive energy into the international and regional landscape.
The wise man seeks common ground, and the tide of the times is surging forward
In 2023, in the midst of the changing situation in the world, China, as always, will intersect with trust, integrate with benefit, friendship and sincerity, manage relations between major countries, hold high the banner of multilateralism, draw a common future, uphold fairness and justice, and use the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, and the Belt and Road Initiative to light the lamp of cooperation around the world, illuminate the road of progress, ballast the great changes, serve as a guide to the crossroads, and enrich the connotation of the era for global governance.
Advocate multilateralism and take the interests of the world as benefits.
The American "Time" magazine commented that this year's rare "Person of the Year" was given to an American actress, saying that "the world is full of darkness, and only entertainment moves the world." As everyone knows, only by lighting a lamp can we perceive the light, and only by keeping the world in mind can we experience the touch. In Nigeria, the blue line of the Lagos Light Rail is running with the joy and laughter of progress, in Indonesia, the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway is speeding with proud national honor, in Croatia, the Peljesac Bridge connects the century-old wish, in Pakistan, the Karot hydropower station carries light and safety, and in Cambodia, the Golden Port Expressway is busy carrying the solid and prosperous...... More than 20 foreign heads of state, heads of government and heads of international organizations, as well as people from all walks of life from 151 countries and 41 international organizations, gathered in Beijing to discuss cooperation, discuss plans and draw blueprints, forming 458 achievements and US$97.2 billion business cooperation agreements. With the help of the Belt and Road Initiative, China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo, China-ASEAN Expo, Canton Fair, CIIE, Chain Expo and other platforms...... China has built a large and multilateral ecosystem of global cooperation, promoted common well-being through its own development, and injected surging impetus into global development.
Crew welcome passengers on the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail at the platform of Halim Station in Jakarta, Indonesia, on December 12. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Qin
Preside over justice, and enter the room with no thickness.
Under the mediation of the Chinese side, Iran and Saudi Arabia officially resumed diplomatic relations in April after "freezing their old suspicions" in Beijing, opening up a new way to break the deadlock in the Middle East and providing a model for resolving contradictions and disputes. In the face of a series of international hot spots, China has always been committed to playing its role as a responsible major country and actively promoting the political settlement of international and regional issues such as the Korean Peninsula, Palestine, Iran's nuclear issue, Syria and Afghanistan. On the Ukraine issue, China has actively promoted peace talks, put forward the "four shoulds", "four commons" and "three reflections" and issued a position paper. On the Palestinian-Israeli issue, China and the members of the Security Council worked together to promote the adoption of resolution 2712, which aims to impose an emergency humanitarian moratorium on the Gaza Strip and establish humanitarian corridors. In November, the joint delegation of foreign ministers of Arab and Islamic countries made China the first stop of international mediation, demonstrating their high trust in China. "In the end, it is not self-sufficient, so it can become great. In the face of many "joints" in international relations, it is China's "great confidence" not to seek its own selfish interests, not to divide spheres of influence, and not to participate in geopolitical contention; upholding fairness and justice, advocating political dialogue, and upholding fairness and justice are China's "indispensable weapons" for trusting the world.
Focus on the future and look at the world with the world.
In the same year, the world's eyes have focused on China, observed, studied and thought about China, and more and more countries have understood, responded to, and participated in the three global initiatives and the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, which has been continuously enriched in the past decade. China-Africa, China-Arab States, China-Latin America, and China-Pacific Island Countries have made steady progress in building communities with a shared future; China-ASEAN, Lancang-Mekong countries communities with a shared future, China-Central Asia communities with a shared future and other neighboring communities with a shared future have taken root; China's bilateral communities with a shared future with Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Pakistan, Mongolia, Cuba, South Africa, and Vietnam have been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people; a community with a shared future for human health, a community with a shared future in cyberspace, and a community with a shared future for nuclear security; Important concepts such as a community with a shared future for the ocean, a community of life between man and nature, and a community of life on earth have responded enthusiastically...... Only the bright moon should be waited, and thousands of miles will be with you.
On April 21, 2023, at the Confucius Institute at the University of Hanoi, Vietnam, Vietnamese university students display their calligraphy works of Chinese characters. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Hu Jiali
"History has proven time and again that in order for a country or region to rejuvenate, it must advance in the logic of historical progress and develop in the trend of the development of the times. In a signed article published in Vietnam's People's Daily in December, General Secretary Xi Jinping once again demonstrated the broad vision and foresight of the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind: looking at the world with the world, thinking is infinite.
This is the determination of the times to recognize and adapt to changes in the great changes of a century, and it is also the historical determination to be good governance, good work, and good action in the turbulent times.
The world in 2023 will be changeable, and the bright moon will shine on the river.