In solidarity with Hamas, the Houthis blockaded the Red Sea by force, declaring that if humanitarian aid could not enter the Gaza Strip, the Houthis would block all ships from sailing to Israel, and threatening that all ships bound for Israel would be targeted by the Houthis, regardless of the flag of the ship or the nationality of the owner or operator.
In response to the blockade by the Houthis, the United States has recently joined forces with Britain, France and other allies to send troops to the Red Sea, claiming that it will escort merchant ships to and from the Red Sea. According to public information, the US aircraft carrier group and the ships of the allied countries have arrived at their destination.
At present, the United States and its allies have the following troop layout: The USS Eisenhower, as well as one missile cruiser and two missile destroyers, are deployed in the southern part of the Gulf of Aden and are suspected to be on standby. It is about 400 nautical miles away from Houthi-controlled territory.
Nine other ships entered the Red Sea and engaged in low-intensity clashes with the Houthis, shooting down several attack drones and missiles.
There is no news on how the United States and its allies will act next.
However, it is difficult to protect the passage of merchant ships by relying on nine ships to patrol the Red Sea. Because the Houthis control this area is long enough, and the group likes to use drones to attack, nine ships can't take care of it, and the cost of escorting ships is very high.
The green part of the map above is the Houthi-controlled area, about 200 kilometers from the Red Sea. The Houthis carried out attacks with drones on the shore, and the range of the attack was very large. It is not a problem for military drones to fly more than 1,000 kilometers, even the Iranian imitation of the Witness-191 has a range of 450 kilometers. That is, more than 1,000 kilometers up and down the Red Sea are within the range of the Houthi attack.
With an average width of 240 kilometers, more than 240,000 square kilometers of the Red Sea are an effective attack range for Houthi drones. In such a large area, the protection of 9 ships is minimal, and the effect is extremely limited.
Taking a step back, assuming that the United States and its allies are very technologically advanced and have their radars fully turned on, they can protect 240,000 square kilometers and shoot down every drone accurately and in a timely manner, but the cost of hitting a drone with missiles is too great.
Drones are very cheap, a few thousand dollars is a very high-end thing, and a hundred and ten dollars of low-end goods are also a lot. But a missile, the minimum is more than one million dollars, and a few million dollars is not expensive. Using this thing to fight drones is feasible in the short term, but it can't be used in the long term.
Therefore, many people speculate that the strategy of the United States is only to deter and force the Houthis to comply. But this possibility is too small, the United States put on a posture, and the Houthis will immediately lower their stature and be willing to negotiate peace, then it will not be the Houthis, and it will not be defined as a terrorist organization by the United Nations.
The Houthis are formed on the basis of the teachings of the Shiite sect of Islam, and their backbone is composed of loyal followers of the Shiite sect of Zaid, whose loyalty to the teachings and fanaticism for the faith are beyond our imagination. This group is not a fledgling stupid boy, they are a battle-hardened force, they have fought against Yemeni government forces, against the coalition forces organized by Saudi organizations, and against al-Qaeda, and the possibility of trying to scare them into submission by putting on a posture is almost zero.
Therefore, this is a difficult problem, even if the United States has already arrived at the Red Sea, it cannot be deterred, and the cost of prevention is too great to last. Then it seems that there is only one way left, fight!
The strength of the US imperialists is so strong that even if an aircraft carrier group, with the help of the ships of the allies, rains down on cruise missiles and is assisted by helicopter gunships, the Houthis are temporarily repelled and driven away from the coastal plains. But what's the use of temporarily repelling, if you are slightly negligent, they are forced to attack with drones, fight guerrilla warfare, and the Red Sea will still not be peaceful. In addition, you can also launch drones in the mountains, so you can't be caught off guard.
But to completely destroy them, this little power alone is not enough. The Houthis will not fight a naval war with the United States, let alone an air war with you, they will only fight guerrilla warfare in the mountains, and it is useless to rely on how strong your naval and air forces are.
Below is the terrain of Yemen, from which it can be seen that the Houthi-occupied area, in addition to the plains by the Red Sea, is the mountainous area on the eastern side, which is the southern section of the Lijaz mountain range, with deep ravines.
There is no problem with the United States and its allies, relying on the superiority of force, to blow up the Houthis-occupied areas. But as long as the Houthis retreat into the mountains, they will certainly not be able to be eliminated by the navy and aircraft carriers.
If Saudi Arabia or other nearby countries support the actions of the United States and join the coalition, and send ground troops to encircle and suppress the Houthis when the United States attacks the Houthis, then even if they are not wiped out, they may be severely injured or even disabled.
But the Houthis claim to be punishing Israel by preventing it from continuing its offensive against Hamas. In the minds of all Islamic countries in the Middle East, Israel is an outlier, and even if it cannot be attacked for various reasons, it must not be able to help it.
Isn't helping the United States to clean up the Houthis indirectly helping Israel? Therefore, it is impossible for nearby Saudi Arabia and Oman to send troops to help the United States. Even if Saudi Arabia hates the Houthis very much, it should not act at this time, otherwise it will be ridiculed and blamed by the entire Muslim world.
Then there is only one way left for the United States, to try to win over the forces in Yemen and flank the Houthis.
The distribution of the four forces in Yemen is as follows:
This map is not very accurate, because the various forces often fight each other, and the territory changes from place to place, but it roughly reflects the basic outline.
Of these forces, al-Qaeda is unlikely to join forces with the United States, and its territory does not border the Houthis. It is highly likely that the remaining Hadi government forces, the Southern Transition Council, and especially the Hadi government forces will join forces with the U.S. military.
The so-called government army is the force under the jurisdiction of the former central government of Yemen, and the Houthis have overthrown the government and even occupied the capital, so the government army will destroy the Houthis. The Yemeni government has always had close ties with Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi royal family is pro-American, so if it works well, it is entirely possible that the government army will enter into a secret agreement with the United States to jointly deal with the Houthis.
Many people on the Internet believe that the US aircraft carrier is on standby or deterrent in the Gulf of Aden, and this analysis has no depth. The most likely reason for the US aircraft carrier to remain stranded in the Gulf of Aden is to put on a posture of deterrence, secretly negotiate with the Hadi government forces, explore ways to jointly destroy the Houthis, discuss how much weapons and assistance the Hadi government forces need, and weigh all kinds of conditions in exchange.
Although the Hadi government army is also considered a Muslim army, it has been attacked by the Houthis and has become a government in exile, and its situation is pitiful and pathetic. Now that this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity has come, they may not be able to resist the temptation and join hands with Lao Mei.
The above analysis is just a personal opinion, how the specific situation develops, or wait and see what happens.