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In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

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In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

Text: Zhang Runchen

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introduction

The Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996 was a rare critical moment for the mainland in decades.

The three parties wrestle in the Taiwan Strait, and war may break out at any time. Back then, we really didn't have much chance of winning the liberation of the Taiwan Strait, and even many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the Xi...

1. A global crisis rarely seen in 40 years

For many people at the time, the crisis in the Taiwan Strait may not have been as explosive as the Cuban Missile Crisis in the sixties, and China was not as terrifying as the Soviet Union seemed.

But at that time, China was also a big country with nuclear weapons and the ability to strike the United States itself. Both the United States and Taiwan are actually cautious in the face of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Taiwan Strait Crisis)

For us Chinese, many people living in the mainland, including the author himself, do not have much experience of this crisis. Especially after the two US aircraft carrier formations entered the Taiwan Strait, war was actually on the verge of breaking out. That year was also the first time in 20 years that the US Navy entered the Taiwan Strait, which was basically equivalent to the threat of war.

Moreover, Lee Teng-hui happened to be visiting the United States at that time. The mainland leader directly told US President Clinton: "The Taiwan issue has always been the most sensitive and important core issue between China and the United States. It is hoped that the US side will be cautious in dealing with the Taiwan issue and consider China's possible actions. ”

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(U.S. aircraft carrier)

The so-called "possible action" is actually a military operation. Although the climax of the 96 Taiwan Strait crisis was in '96, as early as the summer Xi of '95, the mainland had already begun to conduct live-fire missile exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, the 96 Taiwan Strait Crisis is also known as the "96 Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis."

When the time came to 1996, the mainland navy conducted a large-scale live-fire exercise in Xi Taiwan Strait.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Taiwan Strait Crisis)

The two aircraft carrier formations of the US military, the USS Nimitz and the USS Independence, also came to the Taiwan Strait. It can be said that our Xi exercise in the Taiwan Strait was in fact conducted face-to-face with the US aircraft carrier. We have long expected the actions of the US military, but we cannot be sure what the purpose of the US military is? Is it possible that war will break out?

So before the war, many soldiers of our army had already written suicide notes. Even in the team, there are soldiers who keep suicide notes for their comrades. This soldier was often the smallest soldier in the company, in the words of the time, "the last man to die".

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Taiwan Strait Crisis)

2. No chance of winning?

Before the self-defense counterattack war against Vietnam, the self-defense counterattack war against India, and even the Korean War, our soldiers had never written suicide notes on a large scale. The reason why this situation is actually very simple, that is, it really can't be beaten. Back then, it really couldn't beat the U.S. military, especially at sea.

Naval warfare and land warfare are largely different, and the quality of equipment plays an extremely important role in naval warfare. If the equipment is not good, it will not work, and if the equipment is not good, it will not be able to defeat the enemy! However, our navy has not developed for several decades after liberation, and it was not until after 2000 that our navy gradually began to rise.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Gulf War)

But at that time, it was 1996, which was the lowest period for the mainland's national defense. After the mainland officially began reform and opening up, many of the development of our military industry was temporarily put on hold, and everything was done to protect the economy. It is true that our economy has developed, but our national defense has been left behind, many military scientific research projects have been discontinued, and national defense funds have also been cut and cut.

But we stopped, and our enemies will not stop. The United States fought a Gulf War in 1990, which, without exaggeration, shocked the entire world. At the same time, it was the Gulf War that fired the first shot of the modern mode of warfare. The mainland has finally woken up.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Taiwan Strait Crisis)

We do not understand the information-based operations of the United States and the integrated operations of the United States' land, sea and air forces.

We have a limited understanding of the electronic warfare of the United States, and as soon as the war starts, we will all become deaf and blind. In 1994, the mainland conducted the "Sacred 94" sea Xi and air exercise, and the US "Kitty Hawk" monitored the whole process.

The U.S. military only dispatched two EA-6Bs, and they jammed our fleet into a blind man, and the radar frantically alarmed, and we all thought that the Yankees were "launching a general offensive". This incident, which later became known as the "94 Empty Situation" incident, was a disgrace to the mainland. That's why we had to run so close to the US aircraft carrier in the Taiwan Strait drill Xi back then, because it was visible to the naked eye and could only be hit.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Clinton)

This is the sadness of the mainland in the 90s, but fortunately, the United States has no intention of going to war with us, because we have a nuclear stick. President Clinton ordered that the aircraft carrier should not interfere with China's Xi by any means, and could only monitor and not act. US Secretary of State Christopher wrote a letter to our Qian Qichen, making it clear that Lee Teng-hui was on a "private visit."

Clayton also held a news conference with our ambassador Lee Do-yu, at which Clinton solemnly expressed: "I know that the arrival of Mr. Lee Teng-hui has caused many people to have a certain misunderstanding of US policy. But I want everyone to understand that the United States has always recognized the one-China policy. ”

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Lee Teng-hui)

Kissinger also made an emergency visit to China in the same year, and the two sides had a frank communication on Sino-US relations, and the crisis in the Taiwan Strait was finally resolved.

3. Another perspective

At present, our research on the 96 Taiwan Strait crisis is mainly focused on China and the United States. In fact, many people ignore the other side of the incident, that is, the Taiwan side.

In fact, Taiwan played a very important role in the Taiwan Strait crisis, and at that time, Taiwan was even more bottomless than China.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Taiwan Strait Crisis)

While we were conducting a Xi exercise in the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwan Navy was also dispatched to conduct surveillance. At that time, the generals of the Taiwan army directly demanded that no soldier should write a suicide note, and if you died, the suicide note should be handed over to the family, and if you survived, the suicide note would be invalidated and destroyed on the spot.

The Taiwan army in those days was not as "soft" as it is now, and they were really ready for war. After all, the US military has only two aircraft carriers there, and if the mainland is serious, the "Nimitz" and the "Independence" will not be able to do anything at all. If the aircraft carrier is sunk, the Taiwan military will have to face the landing of the People's Liberation Army.

In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, what was the chance of victory for the mainland? Many soldiers had already written suicide notes before the war

(Taiwan Strait Crisis)

But in the end, it all ended peacefully.

Resources:

Taiwan's retired colonel recalls the Taiwan Strait crisis in 96: the submarine was fully loaded with torpedoes, and the young soldier was ordered to write a suicide note.Strait Herald, 2020-09-28

LI Yunlong. A Study on Sino-American Crisis Management in the Taiwan Strait, 1954-1955. Diss. Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.