#文章首发挑战赛#
On the 18th of this month, the DPRK conducted a training to launch the Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, and although the missile only flew 1,000 kilometers, it also landed accurately at the intended target location in the waters east of the DPRK. And the flight ascent altitude reached more than 6,500 kilometers, and the results of experts' calculations according to the standard ballistics showed that under the condition of real work, it could reach the maximum range of about 15,000 kilometers rumored by the outside world.
Not to mention that for South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. military stationed in Japan and South Korea, even if it is aimed at the U.S. mainland, it is a huge threat. Prior to this, the United States, Japan, and South Korea held a meeting of the "Nuclear Consultative Group" in Washington, which focused on training in response to a retaliatory nuclear strike by the DPRK in a real combat environment. And not only lip service, but also the United States also drove the USS Missouri nuclear-powered attack submarine to Busan, South Korea. For this reason, the DPRK sacrificed a weapon of mass destruction, and changed the wording of the test launch, which was a launch training, proving that the heavy weapon for protecting the country has entered the actual strategic deployment.
The situation on the entire peninsula is heating up again, and if a fight really breaks out, who will be more powerful between the DPRK and the ROK? Of course, the premise is that only the north and the south of the peninsula will face each other, because with external assistance, the outcome would have been decided in 1953. In the case of a single operation, the value of the DPRK's force should be significantly higher. Although North Korea's population is only about 25 million, it is only half of South Korea's population of more than 51 million. However, in terms of the number of active troops, the DPRK has 1.2 million soldiers, even if it does not count the huge number of reserve and militia units, while the ROK's active force is only 600,000 at full duty, which is half of the DPRK's.
In addition, in terms of firepower, South Korea is completely unable to parry, let alone "name-calling" nuclear weapons and missiles, and even North Korea does not even need to use 200,000 troops and thousands of tanks deployed in the front line to advance south. Only the artillery deployed on the demarcation line between the two Koreas is enough to cover cities such as Seoul and Incheon, which are only about 30 kilometers away from the ceasefire demarcation line. According to the assessment of the RAND Corporation of the United States in 2021, North Korea has deployed at least 4,800 medium artillery pieces near the demarcation line, and the entire North Korea has tens of thousands of artillery pieces, including self-propelled guns and rocket artillery, according to Western estimates. Of course, South Korea is not completely useless!
South Korea's naval and air military strength is obviously superior to North Korea's, but without foreign aid, I am afraid it is of little significance, and the only chance of victory is to delay!
At present, the South Korean Air Force not only has relatively advanced fighters such as the F-16CD, but also has 40 land-based versions of the stealth fighter F35, and is continuing to order the F35B with short-range vertical take-off and landing from the United States, planning to use it on its Dokdo amphibious assault ship to build a quasi-aircraft carrier combat capability. In addition to the Dokdo, which has a full load displacement of about 20,000 tons, there are also a number of missile destroyers equipped with the Aegis air defense system, such as King Sejong, with a full load displacement of about 8,000 tons, so the South Korean Navy and Air Force are a force that cannot be underestimated.
In contrast, the DPRK has only envy, and its naval and air forces cannot be compared in terms of scale or sophistication. However, if it is only a confrontation between the DPRK and the ROK, even if the ROK's naval and air capabilities can gain temporary air and sea supremacy, it will be of little significance; as long as the DPRK can achieve a large military pressure on land, the ROK will soon lose its large rear, and it will be difficult for the naval and air forces to have a foothold and space to play a role.
North Korea and South Korea are about the same size, 123,000 and 103,000 square kilometers respectively, and even a little more seems to have little advantage. However, in fact, South Korea's strategic depth is much worse than that of North Korea, and not only is the most economically developed capital region vulnerable to attack when it approaches the frontier, but it also shrinks all the way to the south and can only "jump into the sea" in the end. North Korea, on the other hand, is different, even if it is driven north to a desperate situation in the face of the Changbai Mountains and the Yalu River, there is still room for buffer. This was actually "rehearsed" by both sides more than 70 years ago.
Therefore, when it comes to a quick victory, South Korea must not be an opponent of North Korea, because after all, the two Koreas are too close, and no matter how quickly the naval and air forces react, there is no simple and direct bombing by land artillery. However, once a modern war or conflict starts, it will inevitably attract the attention of all parties around it, and as long as North Korea cannot take South Korea in one go, history will inevitably repeat itself.
In the end, the continuous war of attrition is still based on comprehensive national strength, and South Korea is one of the few developed countries in Asia, with a GDP of $1.66 trillion in 2022, nearly 60 times the size of North Korea's economy. If it continues to be consumed, South Korea's chances of winning may be a little greater, at least not to be picked up by North Korea soon. Of course, this kind of delay will eventually have to be delayed until the United States comes to the rescue, but if that is the case, North Korea can also get support from China and Russia.
Therefore, the best way must be for the DPRK and the ROK to return to the road of negotiation to solve the problem, otherwise it is doomed to lose both.