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Putin's most feared person has disappeared for half a month, and Putin will not make the mistake of 12 years ago

author:Written by Tang Jiehu

Three months before the Russian election, Putin's biggest and most feared rival was exiled to the North Pole to step on the sewing machine.

Navalny, Russia's most prominent opposition leader, has been missing for more than two weeks, and his spokesman, Yamish, said Navalny is currently in the IK-3 prison in the Yamal-Nenets region, near the North Pole and about 1,900 kilometers from Moscow in a straight line. Navalny's lawyer managed to meet him a few days ago and reassured his supporters that they were safe.

Putin's most feared person has disappeared for half a month, and Putin will not make the mistake of 12 years ago

[The location of the IK-3 prison, which is already located within the Arctic Circle]

Navalny's new home, IK-3 prison, also known as the "Polar Wolf" prison, is one of the northernmost and harshest prisons in Russia. Located 60 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle, the prison was built at the end of the 60s of the last century as part of the Soviet Gulag labor camp. Navalny's spokesman said it was almost impossible for outsiders to reach the penal colony, where it was not even possible to send letters and was isolated.

The Kremlin can be said to be merciless about this oppositionist, who was previously held in the IK-6 prison, which is the highest security level in Russia. According to Navalny, he had to work seven hours a day in front of the sewing machine, and after the end of the work, there was an "educational drive" every evening, during which he had to sit in a chair facing Putin's portrait. There are no jobs on Sundays, but the "educational activities" last a whole day.

Putin's most feared person has disappeared for half a month, and Putin will not make the mistake of 12 years ago

[Navalny's new home, IK-3 prison, has been renamed the "Polar Wolf" prison again]

And this time he was directly transferred to the North Pole for Navalny, allowing him to fully "enjoy" the severe cold of minus 30 degrees. The main reason why the palace is so strong is because Navalny is too threatening. Unlike some of the other "running actors", Navariny is a real "oppositionist", not only against Putin, but against the whole system, in other words, he is Putin's biggest and most threatening rival.

A lawyer, Navalny began his political career in 2000, initially working on anti-corruption and until 2011 he was active under other political parties. In 2011, Russia broke out in the State Duma election fraud scandal and mass protests broke out in many parts of the country, which was also the biggest political crisis facing Russia in the Putin era - the mistake of 12 years ago is unlikely to be repeated by Putin today.

For Navalny, the crisis also became a turning point in his political career, and his public speeches at the protests catapulted him to fame. In April 2013, Navalny announced that he would run for the presidency of Russia, saying that "he wants to change the life of this international and that he will ensure that the inhabitants of Russia, a country rich in natural resources, will not live in poverty and despair in the future, but will live as normal as 'Europeans.'" ”

Putin's most feared person has disappeared for half a month, and Putin will not make the mistake of 12 years ago

[As a lawyer, Navalny began his career in politics in 2000]

In August of the same year, he ran for mayor of Moscow, where he came in second with 27 percent of the vote, behind the Kremlin support Sobyanin, who was the head of the Russian government's office and has been mayor of Moscow since 2010 and has been re-elected until now.

In 2017, after accumulating enough fame, Navalny challenged for the presidency. He held elections in 27 Russian cities, during which the Russian security services repeatedly arrested Navalny on various grounds, but his activity was not affected. Finally, in December of the same year, three months before the election, the Russian Supreme Court disqualified Navalny from running for "criminal record" - it is worth mentioning that this case is actually very controversial, but I will not discuss it here.

Putin's most feared person has disappeared for half a month, and Putin will not make the mistake of 12 years ago

[Navalny just got off the plane and was arrested at the airport]

At that time, some Russian media pointed out that the move of the Russian Supreme Court had a strong political purpose, and in fact, throughout 2017, Navalny was the only opposition candidate who actually held an election campaign.

After being disqualified, Navalny became completely disillusioned with the Russian system, and the confrontation with Moscow intensified. In August 2020, Navalny was suspected of being poisoned and nearly died, which he believed was the work of the palace, but the palace vehemently denied it, and then Navalny went to Germany for treatment. After he recovered, he returned to Russia in January 2021, but just as he entered the country at the airport, he was arrested again, and this time sentenced to 10 years in prison.

At that time, when he was in prison, the West put a lot of diplomatic pressure on Russia, and on the day he was put on trial, the vehicles of Western ambassadors to Russia were parked outside the courthouse, but none of this worked.

Now that another general election is approaching, and although it is no longer possible for Navalny, who is in prison, to participate in the elections, given the current situation, the Kremlin must overcome all instability, including Navalny. The main purpose of transferring him to the IK-3 prison in the North Pole this time is probably to isolate him from the world and cut off his voice.

Putin's most feared person has disappeared for half a month, and Putin will not make the mistake of 12 years ago

[Considering the current situation, the Kremlin must eliminate all unstable factors]

Previously, Navalny was in the IK-6 prison, which has the highest security factor, but it is only 250 kilometers from Moscow, and it is relatively easy to visit the prison, and Navalny can speak out through prison visits and other means. For example, Navalny, through his lawyer, has called on potential candidates for the general election not to run, in order to "isolate" Putin.

However, as time goes on, Navalny, who can no longer be active, has become less and less influential. Coupled with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian people are stable and unwilling to see a political crisis break out at home. It can be said that Navalny's complete withdrawal from the Russian political arena is only a matter of time, as long as the master of the Kremlin does not change, then he is estimated to remain in prison without a chance to turn over.