#Tell the truth#Now it has become a common phenomenon for young people to "not marry and have children". According to a group of data on the Internet, in 2019, the number of marriages in China fell below 10 million couples, in 2020 it fell below 9 million couples, in 2021 it fell below 8 million couples, and in 2022 it fell below 7 million couples, and this year is estimated to be basically the same as last year. You must know that in 2013, which is not far away, the number of marriages that year was 13.469 million couples, and in just ten years, the number of marriages fell 9 times in a row, a decrease of nearly half.
Let's take a look at the situation of newborns, since 2017, the number of births in the mainland has continued to decline, and in 2022, the national birth population will be 9.56 million, a decrease of 1.8 million from the previous year, setting the lowest value since the founding of New China. Some experts predict that the number of births will fall below 8 million this year. In 2018, the number of births was still 16.23 million, which means that in just five years, the number of newborns has dropped by half.
In contrast, the aging of the population is accelerating. According to the National Health Commission, by the end of 2021, there were 267 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 18.9% of the total population, and more than 200 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 14.2% of the total population. According to estimates, it is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total number of elderly people aged 60 and above will exceed 300 million, accounting for more than 20%, entering the stage of moderate aging.
Around 2035, the elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30% of the total population, entering the stage of severe aging, when more than one-third of the population will be elderly. By around 2050, the size and proportion of the elderly population in mainland China, the old-age dependency ratio and the social dependency ratio will reach peaks one after another.
"Grow old before you get rich", superimposed on the declining birthrate and aging. In another 10 years, who will support the 400 million elderly people?
First, there is enough money to spend. Whether it is nursing home care, home care, or mutual care for the elderly, money is needed. It is impossible to count on children in the future, and the children themselves are not married and have to go to work. According to the current pension level of most people, about 3,000 yuan per month, they can only maintain food and clothing.
2. Don't get sick. Once sick, especially a serious illness, the cost of medical treatment itself is "unaffordable", if you can no longer take care of yourself, you need to hire helpers, you will definitely not be able to afford it, and it is impossible for a child to take leave to take care of the elderly, so you can only wait for death.
3. No inflation. With the intensification of aging, the dependency ratio of employee pension insurance has decreased year by year, coupled with the increase in life expectancy of the population, the number of years the elderly have received pensions has also increased accordingly, and pensions are rigid expenditures. Therefore, the future pension expenditure is facing great pressure, and it is estimated that there is little hope for the pension to increase year by year. I can only pray that prices will not rise too quickly, and that the basic life of the elderly will be guaranteed.
Children are the flowers of the motherland, and young people are the hope of the future, so we should introduce policies to encourage childbirth as soon as possible, slow down the declining birthrate, and increase the pension-dependency ratio.
The 400 million elderly people can only take care of their bodies and seek more blessings for themselves!