Text/Wang Xinxi
ASML's first 2nm lithography machine was handed over to Intel, which essentially means that TSMC was also stuck in the lithography machine and was further overheaded.
A few days ago, according to foreign media reports, the Dutch ASML company will give priority to the delivery of its new high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography machine to Intel Corporation of the United States. It is reported that each new machine costs more than $300 million and can help computer chip makers produce smaller and faster semiconductors.
Judging by the photos posted by ASML on the social platform X, the lithography machine is being prepared to be shipped from its headquarters in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
Digitimes quoted SamMobile as saying that ASML plans to produce 10 2nm devices in 2024, and Intel has purchased six of them. In the coming years, ASML plans to increase the production capacity of such chip manufacturing equipment to 20 units per year.
Why is TSMC also stuck in the neck of the lithography machine?
The industry knows that the current three chip giants of Samsung, Intel and TSMC are competing for the 2nm market. On the battlefield of 2nm, TSMC is in the lead, and it is also the most anxious to get the next generation of lithography machines, objectively speaking, Intel's 3nm has not yet been played, and it is unreasonable to give 2nm to Intel so quickly.
Lithography machine is the most upstream equipment in the chip industry, it can determine the fate of many chip manufacturers, and it can also card the neck of many downstream manufacturers, and TSMC is no exception. TSMC, as a chip foundry giant, is also constrained by lithography machines, and the process of producing 2nm chips also requires 2nm lithography equipment.
In the past, ASML's most advanced lithography machines were sold to Samsung, TSMC, and Intel on an equal footing. As long as the most advanced lithography machine comes out, everyone is equal, and you can get the goods if you give money, and there will be no priority.
Why does ASML give priority to Intel now, behind this may be another move by American capital to overhead TSMC, and TSMC's future is becoming more and more troublesome.
From the perspective of ASML's shareholder structure, most of them come from American investment institutions. Of the top 5 shareholders, 4 are U.S. investment institutions, and only the fourth is Norway's central bank.
Therefore, ASML's decision to supply lithography machines was deeply influenced by American capital, and ASML used a large number of American technology in the production of lithography machines, so ASML could only follow the American decision.
ASML gives priority to Intel to supply, on the one hand, the United States wants to support Intel, and finally catch up with TSMC in process technology, giving priority to Intel, behind which is also to delay the process of TSMC's leadership and create better conditions for Intel to catch up and ship.
The United States may also realize that TSMC's construction of factories in the United States has not met the expectations that the United States wants to achieve, TSMC has its own goals and ambitions, and earlier TSMC's Arizona chip factory has repeatedly clashed with American labor unions because of its backward progress. Nvidia and Tesla, among others, make high-end chips, and these advanced chips still need to be sent back to Taiwan for packaging, a project that is so costly that TSMC has no plans to build a chip packaging plant in the United States.
But why doesn't TSMC want to build a chip packaging factory in the United States, the reason is that the cost is too high, if it goes on according to the idea of the United States, TSMC needs to land a large number of equipment, technology and talents in the United States to help the United States promote the chip industry chain, and at the same time, it will face a big loss problem, which is simply a loss to his wife and soldiers.
Therefore, on the one hand, TSMC caters to the demands of the United States, but on the other hand, it does not want to be completely led by the nose by the United States.
In the past, Zhang Zhongmou has always emphasized that it is his dream to build a factory in the United States, but at present, Zhang Zhongmou no longer emphasizes this, but directly points to TSMC's American competitors sitting on geopolitical advantages, which exacerbates the unfavorable competitive environment for TSMC's overseas expansion. It said that the construction of a 12~28nm mature process wafer factory in Kumamoto, Japan, is progressing smoothly and is expected to be mass-produced in 2024, far exceeding the progress of the Arizona wafer factory in the United States.
Despite this, TSMC also understands that it can't help itself. Three months ago, TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou made a rare remark at the TSMC Employee Movement Conference. He said that Taiwan's existing semiconductor advantage will no longer be in twenty or thirty years, "I believe that Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing environment will not be so favorable, which is related to the development of government policies", but he did not further mention what kind of policy will lead to the reduction of advantages.
In fact, there is still the American factor behind this, the United States has been weakening TSMC in the air, and Zhang Zhongmou knows this. Zhang Zhongmou may have two worries in the past, one is that the construction of a factory in the United States is dragging down TSMC, and the other is the rise of the chip industry chain in Chinese mainland.
Today, these two trends are evolving faster than expected. On the one hand, China's chip industry chain is accelerating its construction, and on the other hand, ASML's most advanced High-NA EUV lithography machine, the first 6 are given to Intel.
The previous generation of lithography machines is in the hands of these three families, and the level of everyone is different, TSMC has the highest level, the fastest process advancement, the fastest mass production of 3nm, followed by Samsung, and Intel again.
But now that ASML has given the first six of its latest lithography machines to Intel, and Intel has become the first company to use High-NA tools for high-volume production, the industry believes that the fab's manufacturing ecosystem will inevitably follow Intel's process requirements, which may then translate into industry standards, giving Intel a strategic advantage over competitors such as TSMC and Samsung.
This move is likely to be that the United States forced TSMC to speed up the progress of building factories in the United States, because the United States has expensive labor and low efficiency, and earlier due to various difficult factors, TSMC's construction and operating costs in the United States have increased by 300%, and a long time ago, it was revealed that TSMC's American factory book loss was as high as 7 billion US dollars, and the actual loss may be much higher than this figure. This has led to continuous delays in the construction of factories in the United States.
TSMC was originally going to transfer people from Taiwan to engage in construction, but local workers in the United States objected, so next, TSMC may have to invite more American locals to promote production and construction.
After all, if TSMC wants to create more advanced chips, it must use ASML's lithography machine, and the gap between Intel and TSMC in high-end technology in the past 10 years is not the lithography machine, the priority is given to Intel's 2nm lithography machine, or it is also a move to pressure TSMC, when TSMC will use it, it depends on the meaning of American capital, and the progress of TSMC's construction in the United States may determine whether TSMC will get the 2nm lithography machine earlier.
TSMC has been overhead, and the time to maintain its technology and market advantages may be further compressed
Zhang Zhongmou said very early: TSMC set up a factory in the United States, and the end was in vain. The current situation is actually in line with Zhang Zhongmou's prediction.
While the U.S. is in desperate need of the mainland market, Intel is also preparing to seize the Chinese mainland market at a recent product launch event in China, announcing the fifth generation Xeon processors for artificial intelligence and the new Core Ultra processors. The two products were released alongside Intel's latest artificial intelligence (AI) chip, Gaudi 3.
Therefore, the current situation is obvious, high-end lithography machines give priority to Intel, delay TSMC's lead, and use this to put pressure on TSMC, if you want the latest equipment, then you have to speed up the construction of the US factory regardless of the cost.
This means that TSMC has no way back to build a factory in the United States, the money that should be smashed has to be smashed, and the lithography machine has also become a chess piece that hinders TSMC, in this case, if Intel is supported and the gap with TSMC is closer, TSMC's technical advantages and market advantages may be lost, and the current signal has shown that TSMC is becoming more and more dangerous.
In the past, TSMC Zhang Zhongmou believed that TSMC's advantage would disappear in twenty or thirty years, but with the rise of the mainland chip industry chain and the United States' strategy of giving priority to Intel from the source of lithography machines, TSMC may lose its advantage earlier, and TSMC may maintain its advantage for no more than 6 years, especially the chip manufacturing process has gone to 2nm, the future space has become smaller and smaller, and TSMC's leading time is getting shorter and shorter.
In fact, this gives us vigilance that the research and development of lithography machine as a long-term strategy can not be changed, the core technology should be in their own hands, in the case of chip manufacturing technology is approaching the limit, the chip giant will fall into a bottleneck period, but also give us the space and opportunity to catch up, from the current domestic pace of advancement, the current situation and progress, time and opportunity are still on our side, we wait and see.
Author: Wang Xinxi, Senior Reviewer of TMT This article is not reproduced without permission