[Editor's note]
The Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict rekindles the flames of war, and the risk of an arms race is unabated...... Military conflicts involving multiple major powers have had a profound impact on the international security situation and the development of weapons and equipment.
The Paper has launched a series of articles entitled "2023 Military Situation" to get a glimpse of the changes in the military security situation and the development trend of weapons from the perspectives of this year's military security situation, nuclear situation, military production, and the development of land, sea, air, and space weapons.
2023 is a year of high incidence of global regional conflicts, with the stalemate between Russia and Ukraine, the sudden escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the distinct confrontation camps in the Asia-Pacific region, the interweaving of traditional and non-traditional security threats, and the fierce confrontation between major powers and the tense power game have a profound impact on the global security landscape, reflecting the complex and severe situation of strategic competition among major powers and the integration and interaction of regional conflict hotspots, highlighting that the international security situation is entering a complex, changeable and turbulent special period.
The new round of military conflict between Palestine and Israel has resulted in a large number of civilian casualties.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is at an impasse, and the prospects for a peaceful settlement are uncertain
In 2023, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains deadlocked, with warring parties trading very limited progress at a heavy cost. Ukraine began to carry out the "summer offensive" in June to carry out a counteroffensive, but did not achieve the expected results, and was forced to turn to the defensive from late October, coupled with the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which made the United States and other Western countries have "Ukraine fatigue", and the level of support and assistance has been declining. According to a report released by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, from August to October 2023, Western countries pledged a total of 2.11 billion euros in aid to Ukraine, a decrease of 87% from the same period in 2022 and the lowest since April 2022. At the EU defense ministers' meeting held in November, German Defense Minister Pistorius admitted for the first time that "the EU will not be able to achieve its previous goal of providing Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells and missiles within a year." In early December, due to the disagreement between the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States, the budget bill involving the aid bill failed to pass a procedural vote, and then Saranda Young, director of the U.S. Administration and Budget Bureau, sent a letter to the House of Representatives and the Senate, warning that the United States will no longer be able to provide weapons and aid to Ukraine by the end of this year. Since Ukraine's defense budget and combat capability are heavily dependent on the support of the United States and the West, these will seriously affect Ukraine's combat effectiveness in the future.
Although Russia currently has a slight advantage in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, such as the recent continuous blocking of the Ukrainian army's offensive in Kupyansk, Redman, Donetsk and other directions, and achieved good battlefield victories, it has also paid a price and has not fundamentally changed the battlefield situation, and the two sides have begun to use long-range weapons such as missiles and drones to launch attacks more frequently. From the perspective of the Russian side, the strategic goals it hopes for such as "Ukraine will not join NATO and become militarily neutral" have not yet been accomplished, so it continues to increase military investment. In November, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it would receive the first batch of unmanned maritime boats by the end of the year to be used as platforms for carrying drones and anti-unmanned equipment, and that they would be tested in the zone of the special military operation in Ukraine. In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to increase the strength of the Russian armed forces by about 170,000 to 2.2 million, and significantly increase military spending in 2024, an increase of 68%, all of which make the conflict between Russia and Ukraine show no signs of a peaceful solution in the short term.
From the perspective of future development, the "butterfly effect" of risks derived from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue, accelerating the great shock, differentiation and restructuring of the international situation, which will have a significant impact on and promote the reshaping of the international security pattern, thus making the world security situation more and more fragile and sensitive.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered brutal positional and urban warfare in 2023, with warring sides trading very limited progress at a heavy cost.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has escalated abruptly, and regional spillover effects have become prominent
In 2023, the willingness of countries in the Middle East to seek stability and development will increase, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries in the region through reconciliation and resumption of diplomatic relations, holding summits and other means, leading the region to set off a "wave of reconciliation". However, on October 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, and a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become the biggest variable in regional security.
Compared with the previous small-scale and scattered attack and harassment tactics, the intensity and intensity of Hamas's military action this time have been markedly increased, and the three-dimensional infiltration strikes by sea, land, and air have repeatedly adopted fixed-position, centralized, and saturated rocket launch methods, disrupting Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense system combat mode and inflicting a considerable blow on Israel. In response, Israel retaliated with air strikes and ground operations in the Gaza Strip, breaking into Hamas-controlled areas from the north-to-north, north-east and south-east of Gaza City. At present, the Israeli army has divided and surrounded the northern part of the Gaza Strip and completely encircled Gaza City, the largest city in the region. The Israeli army's advance was also met with stubborn resistance from Hamas, and fierce street fighting began. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has caused a great humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. According to UN agencies, the conflict has killed tens of thousands of people, including a large number of women and children, and displaced hundreds of thousands.
After the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel, Israel followed Russia's example in equipping tanks with armored roofs to reduce the threat posed by Hamas drones.
In the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States still has a biased attitude toward Israel, and has successively transferred the aircraft carriers "Ford" and "Eisenhower" to waters close to Israel, and has dispatched additional F-35, F-15, and F-16 fighters to the area, mobilized more and more troops to gather in Israel, and provided Israel with a large amount of material aid. According to Israeli data, the United States has delivered more than 10,000 tons of military supplies to Israel since the beginning of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. On December 9, the Biden administration used an emergency mandate to allow the sale of about 14,000 tank shells to Israel without congressional scrutiny. This is the first time since 2019 that the U.S. State Department has invoked emergency provisions for arms shipments to the Middle East, and the U.S. move will undoubtedly "add fuel to the fire" and make the conflict more complicated and difficult to solve.
The escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict not only has a direct and far-reaching impact on the strategic pattern and security architecture of the Middle East, but also has a spillover effect: Lebanese Allah forces continue to engage in skirmishes with Israel on the border; the Houthis launch long-range missile and drone attacks on Israel; after a number of merchant ships were attacked in the Arabian Sea, the United States has announced the establishment of a multinational "escort alliance" to respond to the attack; and US military bases in Iraq have also been frequently attacked after the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
According to the "Reference News", the recent "Armed Conflict Survey" report released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London shows that there will be 183 conflicts in 2023, the most in 30 years, of which the death toll has increased by 14% and the number of violent incidents has increased by 28%. "Difficulty in resolving is the most characteristic feature of contemporary global conflict situations," the survey stressed. "Non-state armed groups pose a great threat. All of this shows that the world is "dominated by increasingly intractable conflicts and armed violence, with complex and conflicting motives", creating many uncertainties for global security and stability.
The undercurrent in the Asia-Pacific region is surging, and the trend of alliance bloc is obvious
Compared with the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the renewed war between Palestine and Israel, and the violent turbulence of the international situation, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region in 2023 will remain relatively stable as a whole, but due to the fierce competition among major powers in the region, the alliance system has become a bloc, which has seriously affected the security and stable development prospects of the region.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula has always been a major variable affecting the security posture in the Asia-Pacific region. South Korea's Yoon Seok-yeol government has put forward a "bold plan" to rely on the U.S.-South Korea alliance, take the initiative to stimulate North Korea in a targeted manner, and ensure military superiority and large-scale retaliatory capabilities against North Korea by holding joint military Xi. In October, the United States and the ROK held a joint military exercise on the Korean Peninsula called "Vigilance and Defense," dispatching more than 130 military aircraft of various types in 25 types, which seriously intensified the crisis of confidence with the DPRK, aggravated the tense atmosphere on the peninsula, and stimulated the DPRK to further strengthen its determination to "possess nuclear weapons and protect itself." North Korea has sent a strong signal of response to the outside world through multiple missile tests and public displays of new weapons. As the intensity of confrontation between the two sides intensifies, the risk of miscalculations, sporadic misfires, and even major incidents on the Korean Peninsula will increase dramatically in the future.
In East Asia, Japan has continued to break through the limitations of its pacifist constitution and successively issued new versions of the Defense White Paper, the Space Security Concept, and the Defense Technology Guidelines 2023 to clarify the goals, routes, key tasks, and policy support for its defense construction and development. On December 13, Japan's ruling coalition working group announced that it would revise the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and the guidelines for its use, which will be a fundamental revision of the Japanese government's export system for defense equipment since 2014. As a result of the revision, Japan will be able to supply arms and ammunition to more countries besides the United States.
In addition, Japan is actively participating in joint Xi exercises with other countries, and has even expanded the scope of Xi exercises to the South Pacific and even Europe. In June, Japan participated in the largest air exercise in NATO history, Xi "Air Guardian 2023", becoming the only non-NATO member of the participating countries. In July, Japan participated in the "Talisman Sabre-2023" joint military exercise held by Australia and launched a Type 12 shore-to-ship missile in Australia for the first time to strengthen its joint combat capability with Australia, and then the Japan Air Self-Defense Force sent seven aircraft, including F-15 fighters, and the French Air Force to hold the first joint exercise Xi to enhance mutual trust between the two countries in the military field and strengthen cooperation between the two countries. In August, Japan met with the leaders of the United States and South Korea and agreed on the "Camp David Principles," agreed to expand the scope of trilateral security cooperation, planned to hold annual inter-service joint military Xi, and reached consensus on strengthening classified intelligence sharing, network cooperation, and economic security cooperation. Japan is strengthening defense cooperation with other countries, especially the U.S.-led alliance system, with the intention of breaking away from the principle of "exclusive defense", promoting the development of overseas troop dispatch in the direction of normalization and institutionalization, and building a "quasi-alliance" relationship with relevant countries and regional organizations.
In the South China Sea, the mentality of some countries seeking opportunities for profit has risen, and the involvement of foreign powers has increased, and their actions have become more provocative, and the level of regional risks has increased. In February, the Philippines agreed that the United States would set up four additional military bases in its territory for the use of the US military; in April, the United States and the Philippines held the largest "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise in history; in August, the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines held their first joint exercise Xi in the South China Sea; in November, the Philippine and US militaries launched a three-day joint sea and air patrol in the South China Sea. A-50 fighters flew in formation in the South China Sea, and the US Navy's Seventh Fleet and the Philippine Navy and Air Force also conducted joint patrols in the South China Sea. From the perspective of the United States, joint patrols with ASEAN countries can promote the regular deployment of US warships and aircraft in the South China Sea, and promote great power competition by creating a favorable strategic environment. The Philippines hopes to strengthen U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation and enhance its deterrence capability against China through joint patrols, and intends to use the United States to form an "asymmetric deterrence." The consequence and impact is that the speculative psychology of some countries will be strengthened, and they may take more provocative and aggressive actions against China in the future, further aggravating the "internationalization" of the South China Sea issue, pushing up the momentum of regional bloc and confrontational tensions, and making the regional security situation more complex and fragile.
On the whole, the international military situation in 2023 is complex and volatile, with most of them disorderly and unbalanced, and the military trends in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region are closely related to the context of world security, which has had a profound impact on the evolution of the global security pattern. Only by working together to strengthen the mechanism of dialogue and consultation can all countries in the world promote the resolution of various hotspot issues and disputes, respond to various challenges and threats, and achieve the sustainable development goals of global peace and stability. (Source: The Paper)