On December 7, the Federation Council of Russia (the upper house) met on the presidential election, and after deliberation, a resolution was adopted to announce that the new Russian presidential election will be held on March 17, 2024. Chairman of the committee, Matviyenko, said at the meeting that the upcoming presidential elections are the most important political event that will largely determine the direction of Russia's development.
A day later, on December 8, Putin unsurprisingly announced his candidacy for the general election. Maybe it's because he knows that there is a high probability of running with him, and the other candidates are not enthusiastic. At present, the only one who clearly wants to compete with Putin is the "Imperial Russia" investor Strelkov. However, Strelkov has neither party support nor resources, and is clearly not Putin's opponent. And he has been in and out of the bureau since he was reported by Wagner a few months ago for making some extreme remarks. I went in again a few days ago, and it is not certain whether I can successfully run for election in the future.
Barring no surprises, Putin will begin his fifth presidential term, which runs until 2030. Although Putin has always had a reputation for dictatorship, the West often claims that Putin has no legitimacy to win the election. However, in the upcoming 2024 Russian elections, everyone has to admit that Putin will definitely win, and it will be a legitimate and reasonable win. So in this case, why did Putin run as an independent person in one more move, and what is the meaning of this?
There may be a deep meaning behind Putin's announcement of his independent candidacy. First, although he claims to run independently, he still needs the support of the United Russia party. An independent candidacy had to be nominated by a 500-member community and 300,000 signatures in 40 different regions, which required a lot of work that Putin could not do alone or with a small team. In fact, he still relies on the United Russia Party and its grassroots networks to do all this work, except that they appear externally as volunteers.
Secondly, Putin actually still relies on the support of the United Russia party. His governance, personal image packaging, and election mobilization all received the full support of the United Russia Party. His achievements, fame, and fame today are inseparable from the assistance and management of the United Russia Party. His staff were all from the same party, so he was only nominally independent.
Third, running for election in the name of independence may have the following purposes: First, it may give people the illusion that it is the president of the whole people and that he is detached from all parties; second, it will increase the legitimacy of his re-election, so that all the people want him to continue to be in power, and he will not be able to do it if he is not right; third, it is necessary to block the mouth of the West, because the outside world has criticized him for his behavior of amending the constitution and being re-elected for a long time.
Fourth, no matter what name he runs, the result will be the same. Running for election independently in his own name can give people a reputation that they do not need the help of political parties and that the people will choose him spontaneously. When elected, his political capital will be even stronger. But this advantage is mainly due to the fact that in the past 20 years, all the really strong contenders have been eliminated in time, and the election has become a game of whales and small fish and shrimp.
Fifth, many predict that he will serve two consecutive terms until 2036, but that would be too long. Russia's political one-man show could not last so long. The Russian president's ideas on the development of human society, the country's development goals, and the idea of governing the country are very vague. With such a shrewd pragmatist leading Russia for a long time, the Russians may slowly adjust their attitude. There have been dissenting voices, albeit faintly, in this election.