Iran is set to host two major elections next year, and the Supreme Leader's health problems are becoming more and more public, which is now an undercurrent in Iranian politics.
Not long ago, in an interview, the leader of Iran's far-right party "Islamic Revolutionary Stabilization Front" Massouri, praised former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saying that he was a "natural state manager" who had a good grasp of many affairs such as economics, politics, and diplomacy.
[Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who served as President of Iran for 8 years]
In this regard, a former presidential adviser who worked in the Ahmadinejad government said that Mussouri and his far-right party are currently pushing for the repressed Ahmadinejad to return to politics, and they hope to restore Ahmadinejad's former position in Iranian politics.
Backed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ahmadinejad served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013 and is the most famous "anti-American fighter" as a hardline president who has threatened to destroy Israel "if the United States goes to war against Iran."
In the end, however, he was abandoned by Khamenei. In 2013, Ahmadinejad wanted to run for a second term in the new general election, but was disqualified by Iran's "Guardian Council of the Constitution" because of his "poor political performance".
[Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]
Here it is necessary to explain the "Guardian Council of the Constitution" in Iran. In principle, Iran's presidential candidates are directly elected by the people, but they need to be vetted by the Guardian Council of the Constitution, a religious institution. The Guardian Council of the Constitution is composed of six clergy and six lawyers, six of whom are appointed directly by the Supreme Leader.
So it's not so much that the Guardian of the Constitution denied Ahmadinejad as president, but that the Supreme Leader wants him to retire. In fact, even if Ahmadinejad passes the committee, he is required by law to obtain the final approval of the Supreme Leader himself before he can officially enter the election process.
In the 2009 presidential election, 476 members of the Guardian Council of the Constitution applied to be candidates, but only four, including Ahmadinejad, were approved to run, while in the 2013, 2017 and 2021 presidential elections, Ahmadinejad applied three times and rejected three times. It can be said that Khamenei is determined to "seal" Ahmadinejad, and even if Raisi, who is also a hardliner, is allowed to go in 2021, Ahmadinejad will not be allowed to go.
But things are changing. Khamenei is 84 years old, and some not-so-good rumours have made his health a hot topic in Iran. Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani even publicly stated a month ago: "May the Supreme Leader live a long life, but as time goes on, the day that we never want to see is more and more likely to come, and the meeting of experts will then decide on the appointment of the next Supreme Leader." ”
[In 2014, Rouhani visited Khamenei in the hospital]
To his moderate colleagues, Rouhani stressed: "The new round of elections to the Council of Experts, which will be held on March 1 next year, is more important than the previous elections. I am considering participating in the election of the Council of Experts, and if I decide to run, I hope to have an impact on the outcome of the election of the Council of Experts after the death of the Supreme Leader. ”
As the former president of Iran, Rouhani's public statement can be regarded as a "straight ball". As mentioned at the beginning, Iran will hold two elections next year, one for the Council of Experts and the other for parliament. In the four-year parliamentary elections, Raisi is now in power, and the hardliners are thriving, and the moderates are basically out of play.
The moderates are now focused on the eight-year elections to the Council of Experts, in which they can win more seats, which they may have the potential to influence the choice of the future Supreme Leader and reverse the overall unfavorable situation.
[In the parliamentary elections held every 4 years, the moderates are basically no play]
Similarly, Ahmadinejad and the hardliners behind him are waiting for an opportunity to turn around through elections. On the one hand, in the light of the hardliners, the ultra-hardliners will have a big role in the two elections next year;
On the other hand, if "the day that Iranians never want to see" arrives before the 2025 presidential election, the biggest obstacle to Ahmadinejad's return to politics will no longer exist, when the 69-year-old is still in his "golden age" as a politician.
In fact, from the changes in Ahmadinejad's movements in recent years, you can see his thoughts. After being banned from running for the second time in 2017, Ahmadinejad began to point the finger at Khamenei, with no shortage of direct attacks on the supreme leader. But since last year, Ahmadinejad has been keeping a low profile and keeping quiet about politics – and there are signs that Ahmadinejad is not "retiring", but "hibernating".
He is well aware that he still has enormous influence in Iran. Some analysts have pointed out that about 80 percent of the current high-ranking officials of the Raisi government have served in the Ahmadinejad government, and some people even refer to the Raisi government as "Ahmadinejad's third government." Including the far-right party leader Mussouri, who praised Ahmadinejad in the interview this time, was also the interior minister in the Ahmadinejad government.
Ahmadinejad was born in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
In addition, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a good relationship with Ahmadinejad, which is also a potential bargaining chip for Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad was born in the Revolutionary Guards, which pushed him to power, and he reciprocated after coming to power: the influence of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran's political and business circles exploded during the Ahmadinejad era, becoming the largest commercial monopoly in Iran, and in 2009, the 400,000-strong "Basij" militia was transferred to the command of the Revolutionary Guards, making the "barrel of the gun" of the Revolutionary Guards even harder.
Although Iran's hardliners, backed by Khamenei, now have the upper hand, moderates, ultra-hardliners, and Ahmadinejad, who has been lonely for a long time, are waiting for new variables.
Ahmadinejad's return is currently being pushed back by ultra-hardliners, but he can only be considered a hardliner himself. The current cooperation between the two is more like a political bargain, with the ultra-hardliners betting on Ahmadinejad, who wants to use their power to restore his former position.