In the past two days, I listened to the exchanges between the two private equity companies, and a lot of data and opinions are very interesting, so I sent them out to learn Xi together.
01
The first is a subjective long private placement with a small scale of tens of billions, which belongs to the value player, and the drawdown in the past two years is not small. However, the long-term performance is still above 10% on an annualized basis.
He has a few sets of data in the exchange, which is very interesting.
The first is this year's "Beijing Stock Exchange + Shanghai and Shenzhen All Stocks", the "median" of this year's rise and fall, even excluding the new stocks listed this year, the "median" is 3.49%.
But why is the performance of many active public and private placements very poor? He counted the rise and fall of the heavy stocks of the fund at the end of last year, and everyone felt it:
The average and median decline was around -46%, but the average growth rate of net profit performance was +65%, and the median was also +30%.
It is not denied that the valuation of these funds' heavy stocks in 21 years has been speculated to the sky, but now it has fallen to the deep value range.
Just to name a few:
For example, the battery leader Ningde was valued at 200 times at the highest time in the first two years, which must be an exaggeration. At that time, I said in the live broadcast that Ningde was a good company, but the valuation was too expensive and it was not surprising that it was cut in half, and some people raised the bar with me in the comment area, but now it has been cut in half, but now the valuation is 14 times, which is too low.
For example, the valuation of LONGi, a leading solar module company, has also fallen from 60 times its high to less than 10 times today.
You know, these companies are not just industry leaders in China, but industry leaders all over the world. It is normal for the valuation bubble to wear out and fall, but it is still killed at the right valuation, or when the profit growth rate is not bad (median 30%+), which is very lethal to the product.
There is another phenomenon this year, which is represented by micro-cap stocks, and many junk stocks have been speculated. The market itself is short of money, and if you speculate on garbage and small plates, the above-mentioned good companies will continue to lose blood, and it will take longer to bottom.
This old brother said that he was quite helpless in the back, saying that those garbage stocks were rising well, but he couldn't do it, and he violated his own values.
And these value stocks are already so cheap that it's only a matter of time before they are fixed.
02
Another exchange was a subjective long fund manager of a private FOF.
As soon as I came up, I first talked about the difference between "subjective longs" and "quantitative longs", this paragraph is very exciting, I will do a live broadcast when I have time in the past two weeks, and talk about these.
Many customers will feel that quantification is better than subjective in the past two years, and the quantitative index increase FOF of this private equity is also profitable this year. The essence is also that the logic of the two strategies is different. Subjective or to make value of money, quantification is more more trading money. In the context of the general decline of value stocks, it is indeed difficult to subjectively unless the position is short.
This picture is recommended to take a good look at, it is very informative.
Moreover, in the past 22 years, it has been the highest rotation speed + theme market in history, and it will be very fatal to the subjective strategy of traditional value. However, this kind of unusually high rotation is better at quantitative products.
In this year's market, loss-making stocks have risen slightly, and low-profit stocks have also risen slightly, but they are high-performing stocks, which have fallen by 24.5%.
This kind of over-falling, in essence, is the same as the over-rise in the second half of 20 years, which are two sides of the same body under emotion. It's just that everyone must only accept that it is too much and not too much.
For the market outlook, I am still relatively optimistic, after all, the performance of these high-quality stocks is still excellent, and the current valuation is also very low, including this FOF, which actively selects some low-turnover value sub-funds and waits for the value of the market to recover.
03
Therefore, in my opinion, domestic value stocks will inevitably have a round of valuation repair in the near future. It's nothing more than how to configure it to maximize the benefits in the process of repair.
As we talked about in a series of articles such as "Investing in 10 Billion Funds, You Lost at the Starting Line", avoiding 10 billion funds, after all, is too large and has a high probability of negative excess;
In this position, looking at the average value of domestic stock public offerings in the past ten years, you should think about what I was doing in 18 years, why did I dare to chase the high point in the second half of 20 years, and now this position has to run.
knot
Finally, I would like to give you a classic quote from Munger:
The big money is not in the buying and the selling but in the waiting.
The big money is not about buying and selling, but about waiting.
It's all in this position, just wait.
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