Overview of the global market
Fearless of the pressure on interest rate cut expectations, the Nasdaq continued to rise, hitting a new high in the past two years, the S&P approached a record high, and the Dow closed flat and stabilized at a record high. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reversed its four-day losing streak. The U.S. dollar index rebounded weakly, and turned lower during the session.
Ahead of the BOJ decision, the yen continued to fall off four-month highs.
Crude oil rose nearly 4% intraday as attacks on merchant ships intensified and giants halted shipping in the Red Sea, but the closing gains narrowed. Gold rebounded, and gold futures approached a one-week high.
Global news
1. Fed officials relay to "pour cold water" on interest rate cut expectations
Cleveland Fed President Mester said that the market's expectations for a rate cut are "slightly ahead" of the Fed, and the key to the next stage is how long monetary policy needs to remain tight. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Fed should not act on market reactions, suggesting that the market was overreacting to the Fed's quarterly economic projections updated last week. San Francisco Fed President Daly said on the same day that three rate cuts in 2024 may be needed.
2. The freight rate of the relevant routes from the Far East to Israel has increased by about 6 times compared with the first half of the month
As Houthi rebels ramp up attacks on merchant ships in solidarity with Hamas, more and more large container shipping companies have had to withdraw from the area. From BP to Maersk, companies transporting consumer goods, commodities such as coal and corn, as well as energy products, face a longer voyage ahead. The Joint War Risk Commission, a well-known insurance agency, circled a larger area of what is considered the world's most dangerous body of water in the Red Sea on Monday, meaning that ships passing through the waters will have to pay more premiums for the risk of war. Since the first attack, such premiums have increased almost ninefold.
The person in charge of a freight forwarding company revealed that some shipping companies have announced the latest freight rates, of which the freight rates of the relevant routes from the Far East to Israel have been pushed up to more than 6,000 US dollars / FEU. "In the first half of December, the shipping cost was only more than $1,000/FEU, and in the second half of the month, it was only more than $2,000/FEU. ”
3. The United States announced the formation of an alliance in the Red Sea to carry out escort operations
Following the Houthi attack, the US Secretary of Defense announced a multinational operation to protect Red Sea trade. The participating countries will conduct joint patrols in the South Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Countries participating in the U.S.-led operation include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. The Houthis said the United States had been in indirect contact with them and rejected the U.S. offer in exchange for a halt to operations in the Red Sea.
4. The Bank of Japan may consider removing negative interest rates in January
Chotaro Morita, chief strategist at All Nippon Asset Management, said there was no doubt that the Bank of Japan was considering lifting negative interest rates in January. "The BOJ is focused on the spring wage talks, which means that the BOJ will raise interest rates around January to April," Morita said. The Bank of Japan is clearly considering lifting negative interest rates in January to ensure more flexibility in the future. "According to the Bloomberg survey, most forecasters expect the central bank to end negative interest rate policy by April. More and more people expect it to happen in January.
5. The European Union passed the 12th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on diamonds, etc
The European Union issued a statement to adopt the 12th round of sanctions against Russia. The European Union prohibits the direct or indirect import, purchase or transfer of diamonds from Russia. The European Union added 29 Russian and third-country entities to the list of entities linked to the Russian military-industrial complex. In the 12th round of sanctions against Russia, the European Union imposed a new import ban on liquefied petroleum gas, which will have an impact on imports of more than 1 billion euros per year.
6. Song Yong-gil, the former leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, was detained pending trial
In the early morning of December 19, local time, according to a number of South Korean media, citing South Korean court information, Song Yongji, the former leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, was suspected of participating in the bribery case of the Democratic Party of Korea.
7. Singapore has resumed reporting daily epidemic data since December 19, as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise
Singapore's Ministry of Health (MOH) is taking steps to deal with a new wave of COVID-19 cases as confirmed cases continue to rise. On 15 December, Singapore's Ministry of Health announced that it would resume reporting daily data from 19 December, urging the public to wear masks indoors, in crowded places or when in contact with high-risk groups, and to avoid contact with others when they have symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI).
8. Li Qiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council
Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on December 18 to listen to a report on the progress of accelerating the construction of a unified national market. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to actively and steadily promote the reform of key areas such as finance and taxation and statistics. It is necessary to set up all kinds of systems and rules that are conducive to the construction of a large unified national market, and to remove all kinds of obstacles and obstacles. Strengthen the capacity building of infectious disease monitoring and early warning, emergency response, and treatment, and unswervingly grasp the current prevention and control of infectious diseases.
9. The Measures for the Administration of Consumer Financial Companies Are Further Revised! The Leverage Ratio shall Not Be Less Than 4%
After a lapse of 10 years, the Administrative Measures for Consumer Finance Companies will be revised. Yesterday, the State Administration of Financial Supervision solicited public opinions on the "Measures for the Administration of Consumer Financial Companies". The shareholding requirement for major investors of consumer finance companies will be increased from no less than 30% to no less than 50%, the maximum amount of consumer loans issued by consumer finance companies shall not exceed RMB 200,000, and the leverage ratio of consumer finance companies shall not be less than 4%, and blind expansion will be restricted.
10. A series of earthquakes in Jishishan County, Gansu Province, have killed 100 people
The China Earthquake Network officially determined that a 6.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in Jishishan County, Linxia Prefecture, Gansu Province at 23:59 on December 18, with an epicenter depth of 10 kilometers. As of 06:00 on December 19, a total of 275 aftershocks were recorded, including 9 aftershocks of magnitude 3.0 and above, including 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0-6.9, 0 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0-5.9, 2 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0-4.9, 7 earthquakes of magnitude 3.0-3.9, and 266 aftershocks of magnitude below 3.0.
So far, the earthquake has killed 100 people in Gansu and 11 in Qinghai, and damaged some infrastructure such as water, electricity, transportation, and communications.
Industry information
1. Egg prices soar Russia: 1.2 billion eggs will be imported duty-free from Turkey
Since the beginning of 2023, the price of eggs in Russia has soared by 46.2%, making it the fastest-rising non-staple food in the country. The Russian government recently said that it will also import 1.2 billion eggs duty-free in the first half of next year to alleviate the shortage of egg supply and curb the rise in egg prices.
2. "Halving" is also difficult to shoot 377 houses in Hangzhou were put on the auction shelves
According to the Ali auction platform, the 377 houses and 4 underground cars of Zhejiang Hao'an Haoju Real Estate Co., Ltd. located in Blue Diamond Tiancheng, Gongshu District, Hangzhou City officially started at 10 o'clock in the morning, with a starting price of about 278 million yuan. As of press time, the lot still shows that no one has registered, 45 people have set reminders, and 4,068 onlookers have watched. This is the fourth time that Blue Diamond Tiancheng has been listed on the auction platform this year, and the starting price of this time has been nearly "halved" compared with the valuation of the underlying assets. The owner of the auction target, Zhejiang Hao'an Haoju Real Estate Co., Ltd., has long been included in the list of dishonest persons subject to execution, and the company is currently in bankruptcy liquidation.
Edit | Huarui Information New Media Team
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