This week, the A-share market has been full of twists and turns, first the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out on Monday and Tuesday and rebounded, and then due to the amount of energy, there was a continuous rise and fall. Judging from the weekly level alone, the decline of the three major indexes is actually not large, but because people are naturally averse to losses, the performance experience of the market in the last three days is more profound, and the blow to investor confidence is also relatively large. It is said that the people who bought the bottom at 3,000 points do not dare to move now, because they don't know where the bottom is, which is the biggest dilemma at the moment.
As old stockholders, we are well versed in the truth that the market must be reversed. At present, the shock of the market is obviously also preparing for "Tailai", and the key is to what specific step it has reached? How long will it take to probe the bottom? What is the situation on the market that is worth paying attention to? Today, Dr. Da Ge and Dr. Niu discussed the issues that everyone is concerned about.
Dr. Niu: Hello, Da Ge! It's another week of time for us to heal your injuries. The market has risen and fallen for 3 consecutive days, boiling people to "scorched on the outside and tender on the inside", just like you just mentioned, I don't know where the bottom is. In the middle of the week, you mentioned that the market made a 15-minute level box oscillation pattern, and now the oscillation is very clear, is there still the last step?
Daoda: Judging from the performance of the last 3 days of the market this week, it is a typical negative trend, which is a very draining time window. It is recommended not to pay too much attention to the small-cycle performance of the market, such as the performance of the tick chart, and keep a certain distance from the market.
At the same time, don't set your mind about it. Continuous surges and pullbacks often occur at the bottom, which is a conventional means of shaking positions and shuffling. Friends all know the story of "the wolf is coming", once the set is formed, no one buys it, and someone sells it (short-term and T funds will sell), then after the purpose of short luring is achieved, there may be a short pull-up. Discipline should be used to guide operations.
In the mid-week notebook article, I put forward the view that "the last step is still missing", after the market has passed this 15-minute level box shock, if it hits a new low downward, depending on the strength of the decline, judge whether it has bottomed out in the short term. At present, the 15-minute box oscillation is in line with expectations.
In fact, this kind of downward trend was experienced by us two months ago, that is, the trend of the market from September to mid-October, especially the market near mid-October, which is very similar to the current situation, and it is also a continuous rise and fall, and then after the release of bearish momentum, the market ushered in a rebound.
At present, the 15-minute volatility of the market is not comparable with before. Therefore, even if it falls, the momentum released is relatively limited, so there is no need to worry too much.
If we go back in time, the current scenario of the market is somewhat similar to that of November 21 to December 7, 2011, when the market also fluctuated near the previous low. The only uncertain factor is whether the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to fluctuate next week, or choose a direction. But no matter how it goes, it means that the market will not be too far from bottoming.
Speaking of the short-term market trend, among the three major A-share indexes, the Shenzhen Component Index has fallen below the previous low before the other two major indexes, and there is no good news over the weekend, while drawing on the performance of the A50 Futures Index, the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to fall below the previous low at the beginning of next week.
In addition, judging from Friday's trading volume, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite 50 have a slight increase, which indicates that there is a certain amount of panic in the weighted blue chips, but because the Shenzhen market is still shrinking, it reflects that this panic only appears in a small range and has not spread, especially in the representative Shenzhen market, retail investors are not willing to hand over their chips. Overall, I still stick to the "one last step away" view.
Dr. Niu: Thank you Da Ge for sharing such a clear strategy, I have a bottom in my heart. Judging from the situation presented on the market this week, I mainly focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises and the media, and I also asked Da Ge to make a brief analysis of the situation of the plate this week.
Daoda: The two directions that Dr. Niu said are indeed the hot spots with strong performance this week. The media is active, mainly due to the continuous influence of short drama games, and the head game companies and film and television companies have begun to increase the size of the mini game and micro-short drama track, relying on the strong production and distribution strength of the "regular army", which will significantly improve the product quality and communication of the mini-game and micro-short drama, and urge the industry to develop in the direction of high-quality.
At present, the media sector does not see any signs of ending for the time being, it should be noted that the sector index has been close to the previous high, coupled with the recent sideways for four trading days, there is not much need to chase this trend, waiting for a strong adjustment to appear, then the opportunity will be better.
The reform of state-owned enterprises is a new direction this week, and in the context of the Xi theme of speculation at the end of the year, this is a rare low-level sector, and it does not need to consume too much money. On Friday, this theme is still extending, and there are constantly low-level individual stocks with daily limits, which are in the early stage of speculation.
The sector index has performed relatively strongly in the short term and is expected to continue to strengthen. For the time being, it will be dominated by strong leading stocks, and wait until the theme hype reaches a certain level, and then dig out the low level to make up for the rise. Prudent investors can pay attention to the varieties that have recently been repurchased and are gaining momentum at a low level.
Beijing and Shanghai further optimized and adjusted real estate policies, and made all-round efforts to reduce the cost of buying a house and the threshold for buying a house, so as to better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, which is a relatively good thing for the real estate industry.
On the trend of the plate, this week's performance is good, after opening high on Friday, the upper shadow line is longer, it is a large-scale stagflation pattern, although there are some bottoming structures, but it is better to observe first, and wait for the bottom structure to be formally established, do not rush to intervene, and observe whether the plate index can stop falling at the intraday low on Thursday.
Stylistically, Dagoe is thinking about the possibility of 28 transformation. The short-term performance of the SSE 50 Index, the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index cannot be said to be exactly the same, and we should pay attention to their driving effect on the broader market. Investors are mainly concerned about brokerage stocks, and there are also intraday moves in brokerage stocks this week, and the securities sector needs to stand at the high point of this Monday to determine its status.
On the whole, the current market is precisely the time when "others are afraid of me and I am greedy", so we must be ready to attack. If the market makes a new low, on the one hand, it is necessary to observe the amount of energy, and on the other hand, it is necessary to have a strong white candle at the level of at least 15 minutes. If there is a strong sector that appears and forms a reversal pattern with the index, it should be the focus of attention.
(Zhang Daoda)
According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, this notebook does not involve any operational suggestions, and the market entry is at your own risk.
National Business Daily