At the drunkard drinking conference on December 9, the drunkard completely blackened himself in front of the guests.
"The performance is directly cut in half", "the price is upside down", "a mess of a bunch of cultural and creative wines", "the stock price is falling", "the speculation is pressing", "the inventory is high", "the goods are channeling", "what is the management doing?", ...... These words are impressively visible on the on-site PPT.
In contrast, the net profit of the drunkard liquor fell by 50%, the revenue plummeted by more than 1 billion, the main product stopped orders, and was executed by the court by 4 million...... Five hundred days ago, Chairman Wang Hao made a bold statement at the 2021 General Meeting of Shareholders of Alcoholic Liquor: "According to our established strategy, the next 10 billion will never be a dream!"
Who would have thought that a year after the 10 billion rhetoric, the 2023 interim report of alcoholic liquor will see a big decline in revenue and net profit, especially the revenue growth rate is directly at the bottom of the listed wine companies.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the operating income of alcoholic liquor was 2.142 billion yuan, down 38.5% year-on-year, and the net profit was 479 million yuan, down 50.7% year-on-year. According to official information, on October 30, the drunkard added a new information on the person subject to execution, with an enforcement target of more than 4.34 million yuan, and the enforcement court was the Jishou Municipal People's Court.
Cai Xuefei, a senior analyst in the liquor industry, previously said that in 2023, alcoholic liquor will face three major problems - continued turbulence in product prices, excessive channel inventory, and lack of market confidence.
Now look at the drunkard's "10 billion dream", the road is still far away.
Revenue and profits plummeted, and the "dark horse" was no longer glorious
Judging from the data of the first three quarters, the revenue growth rate of alcoholic liquor is the first to the bottom in the industry, and the net profit growth rate is the second to the bottom.
According to the third quarter report of 2023, the company's main revenue was 2.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.54%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 479 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.75%.
In the third quarter of 2023, the company's single-quarter main revenue was 601 million yuan, down 36.66% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 56.7719 million yuan, down 77.65% year-on-year, the non-net profit deducted in a single quarter was 55.3209 million yuan, down 78.2% year-on-year, the debt ratio was 22.83%, the investment income was -441,400 yuan, the financial expenses were -81.2631 million yuan, and the gross profit margin was 78.9%.
From the perspective of revenue growth, the median revenue growth rate of listed liquor companies was 18.62%, and three of the 20 companies saw a decline in revenue, namely Shunxin Agriculture (-3.28%), Shuijingfang (-4.84%), and Jiuguijiu (-38.54%).
From the perspective of net profit growth, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of listed wine companies was 16.66%. In the first three quarters, there were 5 wine companies with a year-on-year decline in revenue, of which Laobai dry wine, drunkard wine, and Shunxin agriculture fell by more than 20%.
Such a record is really contrary to everyone's impression of drunkards in the first five years.
In 2015, the revenue of alcoholic liquor was only 601 million yuan, and by 2022, this figure has become 4.05 billion yuan, more than 6 times that of the original.
Converted, from 2014 to 2022, the compound annual growth rate of operating income of alcoholic liquor will reach 34.07%, which is undoubtedly a "dark horse of liquor".
But in 2023, after years of continuous high growth, the drunkard has fallen into a quagmire.
In the first quarter of 2023, the revenue of Jiujiu Liquor was 965 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.87%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.38%. The decline in the second quarter narrowed quarter-on-quarter, but still continued the decline in the first quarter.
What happened to the drunkard?
The relevant person in charge of the company told Sohu Finance that the decline in total revenue was mainly caused by the decline in revenue of several series of its products. Subdivided into different product lines, there are three series of internal references, alcoholic spirits and Xiangquan, and the revenue in the first half of the year was 441 million, 846 million and 36 million respectively, down 31.67%, 42.46% and 76.69% year-on-year.
This also means that the main products of alcoholic liquor have suffered a decline across the board.
A serious price inversion is inevitable to stop orders
The rapid decline in product revenue is inseparable from the poor distribution channels.
Sohu Finance visited the offline market and found that the products represented by the "internal reference" series have seen a serious price inversion. Originally, the suggested retail price of 52 degrees and 500 ml of ginseng wine was 1,499 yuan per bottle, but the average price of most cigarette hotels was only 900 yuan, and the actual price of the 568 yuan drunkard wine red altar was only about 400 yuan.
From the perspective of market sales, the price of alcoholic liquor is upside down, and dealers are facing the problem of meager profits and insufficient power.
The third quarterly report of alcoholic liquor can directly reflect the confidence of dealers. Compared with the contract liability of 433 million yuan on January 1 this year, the contract liability on September 30 decreased to 251 million yuan, that is, the amount of dealer payment is decreasing.
For the downturn in distribution channels, drunkards stopped taking orders and hoped to sort out the national market.
On October 10, 2023, Alcoholic Spirits issued a notice to stop accepting sales orders from now on, and the resumption date is to be determined. On the face of it, the cessation of new orders will inevitably affect sales, which will undoubtedly make the situation of alcoholics more difficult.
For this move, drunkard liquor related insiders told Sohu Finance that this time is mainly aimed at the "drunkard" series products, the purpose is to sort out and rectify the market order of the "drunkard" series products. It is not expected that the suspension will last long, and the company will re-take it in a timely manner depending on the completion of the market.
Some liquor analysts said that from another point of view, the cessation of orders does not necessarily bring negative effects, such as controlling shipments through this operation to stabilize product prices, maintain certain profits, and even leave room for performance growth in the next year.
This is not the first time that Drunkard Liquor has stopped taking orders, and in July this year, Drunkard Liquor also issued a notice to dealers that it would stop receiving sales orders for the "Internal Reference" series, which caused a heated discussion in the circle. In fact, since last year, the alcoholic liquor has continued to control the volume, and has issued several notices of suspension of goods.
In this regard, the drunkard once told investors on the platform that under the current situation, there will be the phenomenon of dumping goods and fleeing goods in some places, and the suspension of receiving sales orders this time is to rectify these phenomena, which will be conducive to the stability of the company's product prices. This is only a temporary action, and the company will resume taking orders according to the completion of rectification in different areas.
But on the whole, stopping orders is just a "delaying measure" to stabilize the market order, and what drunkards have to focus on facing is the painful reality of inventory accumulation.
The inventory is heavy and difficult to return, and the dealer said that "it can't be sold"
In the first half of 2023, the inventory of alcoholic liquor was 1.419 billion yuan, an increase of 17.27% year-on-year compared with 1.210 billion yuan in the 2022 semi-annual report.
From the end of 2020 to the end of 2022, the inventory of finished liquor will be 2,993 tons, 5,914 tons, and 7,375 tons, respectively, with a rapid growth rate. Among them, the internal reference series increased from 632 tons to 1347 tons, and the alcoholic series increased from 1368 tons to 5150 tons, and the production volume is increasing year by year.
By the end of the first half of 2023, the inventory of the internal reference series and the drunkard series will still increase year-on-year. In 2023, the liquor industry will indeed encounter the pressure of destocking and price inversion, and this will be magnified in the case of alcoholics.
In recent years, Jiujiu Liquor has continuously expanded its dealer team, launched new cultural and creative wines, and promoted internal reference wines, but the brand power and rapid expansion have not been fully adapted, coupled with the influence of the external environment, and finally formed a channel backlog.
Wang Xian, a distributor in Haidian, Beijing, told Sohu Finance that the sales of alcoholic liquor this year are not much different from previous years, and the market feedback is acceptable, but he "doesn't plan to buy wine again this year", "I pressed too many goods in my hands in the first two years, and I couldn't sell them out at all." ”
Cai Xuefei, a senior analyst in the liquor industry, previously said that in 2023, alcoholic liquor will face three major problems - continued turbulence in product prices, too high channel inventory, and lack of market confidence.
Zhu Danpeng, a Chinese food analyst, also said, "The abrupt end of the high growth of alcoholic liquor in the first quarter of 2023 is actually the result of overdraft market, overdraft inventory, and overdraft dealers." ”
Guosen Securities and other institutions pointed out that the current liquor sector is at the bottom of expectations, the external economic environment is still under pressure, the sub-high-end company preservation market is prioritized over the performance increment, the channel is healthy, the business personnel are highly motivated, and the company with a firm large single product may have the opportunity to pass through the pain of this cycle and wait for the value to return.
Produced by | Sohu Finance
Author | Ai Hao
Operations Editor | Xue Suwen
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