The Federal Reserve's partial expectations have boosted the non-ferrous metals as a whole, among which the impact of the production reduction of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plants has gradually emerged, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory has been continuously depleted, and aluminum prices are going to rise?
Yesterday, aluminum prices ushered in a Jedi counterattack, and the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 18,760 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm yesterday), an increase of 1.85%. SMM spot A00 aluminum reported an average price of 18,680 yuan/ton. The average price of A00 aluminum ingot is -50.
According to SMM statistics, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output in November 2023 (30 days) will be about 3.488 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. In November, the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan was stopped, and the average daily output of domestic electrolytic aluminum fell by 1,185 tons month-on-month to 116,300 tons/day. From January to November, the cumulative output of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 37.946 million tons, an increase of 3.6%.
As of December 14, 45,000 tons to 446,000 tons of aluminum ingots and 2,000 tons to 97,500 tons of aluminum rods were destocked.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported a total of 11.123 million tons of bauxite in October 2023, an increase of 11% month-on-month and 23.97% year-on-year. In October, alumina imports were 99,000 tons, down 48.28% month-on-month and 60.51% year-on-year, and exports were 70,000 tons, with Russia 62,800 tons, accounting for 90%. In October, the total import volume of primary aluminum was 216,600 tons, an increase of 221.19% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month, the total export volume was 0.06 thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.67% and a month-on-month decrease of 91.29%, and the total net import volume reached 216,000 tons, an increase of 223.4% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 11.51%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of primary aluminum was 1.1727 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 172.92%, the total export volume was 113,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.19%, and the total net import volume reached 1.0592 million tons, an increase of 347.33% year-on-year. In November 2023, the domestic export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 489,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.46% and a month-on-month increase of 11.20%, and the cumulative export from January to November was 5.1852 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%. From January to November, the total export value reached 123.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.09%.
In November, affected by overseas pre-holiday stocking, domestic exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products have picked up, and it is expected that the export volume of aluminum products will continue to grow in December.
According to the data released by the China Passenger Car Association, from November 1 to 30, the market retail sales of passenger cars were 2.062 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 1%, a cumulative retail sales of 19.328 million units this year, a year-on-year increase of 5%, a year-on-year increase of 2.572 million passenger car manufacturers, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a month-on-month increase of 5%, and a total of 22.843 million units since the beginning of this year, a year-on-year increase of 9%. From November 1 to 30, the market retail sales of 783,000 vehicles, an increase of 30% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month, a total of 6.736 million units have been retailed this year, an increase of 34% year-on-year, 945,000 new energy wholesales of passenger car manufacturers nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, and a total of 7.744 million units have been wholesaled this year, a year-on-year increase of 35%. According to the industry survey, PV production was 53.4GW in December, maintaining an upward trend month-on-month.
The impact of the production reduction of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant has gradually emerged, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory has been continuously reduced. Downstream automotive PV consumption remains strong. In view of the continuous removal of aluminum ingots at this stage, it is expected that aluminum prices will show a strong trend of volatility in the future.