The liquor faucet "kills and falls", when will the "prisoner's dilemma" be solved?

来源：密探财经（ID：Spy Finance）

Approaching the end of the year, according to the usual practice, this is the key window period for liquor companies to arrange goods to "rush performance", but at this time this year, it seems to be a little unusual.

To say that the capital market is the "barometer" of the macroeconomy, first look at the recent performance of the A-share liquor leader, it can be said that it is "bleak and falling".

In the past two trading days, Kweichow Moutai has continued to "close in the negative", with a cumulative decline of 4.33%, and a cumulative decline of 8.69% since December. Looking at Wuliangye, it has also fallen continuously in the past two trading days, with a cumulative decline of 4.77% and a cumulative decline of 11.06% since December.

Looking at Luzhou Laojiao, the cumulative decline in the past two trading days has been 8.1%, and the cumulative decline since December has reached 18.3%, and Yanghe shares have fallen by 5.56% in the past two trading days, and the cumulative decline since December is 7.63%.

Whether it is this year's interim report or this year's third quarter report, the liquor leaders who dominate the liquor market with mid-to-high-end liquor seem to be still "very moist", and most of their revenue and net profit are going against the market.

Strangely, when the A-share market fell below 3,000 points and continued to be in a downturn, the risk aversion of investment funds should be particularly strong, and daily consumption of medicine and liquor should be the most resistant.

But unfortunately, why do the majority of shareholders also "vote with their feet" for the liquor faucets with outstanding performance?

Recently, it was rumored that Luzhou Laojiao informed dealers that "before December 18, Guojiao 1573 will implement the payment price at 930 yuan / bottle (the original price is 980 yuan), and each bottle will be rewarded with 10 yuan for scanning the code out of the warehouse".

This move was interpreted by the industry as Luzhou Laojiao "making profits" to dealers, allowing dealers to actively stimulate the retail market to remove impulse.

According to the latest news, judging from the explanation information transmitted by Luzhou Laojiao to the media, it is obvious that it denies the price reduction, and also says that this is not for all dealers, and the company has implemented profit pre-placement for high-quality customers within the scope of the planned quota, and the actual settlement price with dealers remains unchanged.

The message behind this move is very intriguing. Sluggish liquor consumption and pressure on inventories have led to problems such as "price inversion" in the retail market, which have been present since the beginning of the year and show no signs of improvement.

In the past two years, mainstream liquor companies have continued to launch "new production capacity" projects, and have successively entered the expansion cycle, and their inventories have become increasingly high.

As of the end of the first three quarters of this year, the total inventory of 20 liquor stocks was about 136.36 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% year-on-year, a record high. For example, the inventory of Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu all exceeded 10 billion yuan, of which Kweichow Moutai's inventory was as high as 40.9 billion yuan.

At the end of October this year, Kweichow Moutai officially announced an increase in the ex-factory price of the company's 53%vol Kweichow Moutai (Feitian, Five-Star), with an average increase of about 20%. Industry comments say that at present, only Moutai dares to do this, which is the myth of ensuring performance.

Now it is time to "each according to his ability" to break the "prisoner's dilemma" or "involution", but it remains to be seen whether the expectations can be achieved. But what is certain is that the more liquor is sold, the more expensive it becomes, and the more it is sold, the so-called "high-end" is by no means what the public expects.