Putin seems to be becoming more and more "confident", and a familiar Putin seems to be back. This sentence sounds tongue-in-cheek, but if you give two examples, you will understand it.
The first example: after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year, in the following more than one year, Putin's foreign visit footprint was strictly limited, and the number of countries he visited was very limited, basically the CIS countries, neighboring countries, etc. However, a few days ago, Putin's sudden whirlwind visit to the Middle East, with successive visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, made the eyes of the outside world shine instantly: Putin seems to be "returning" to the international stage, and he is making more confident foreign trips.
Putin is becoming more and more assertive, and this year's "live broadcast" is a typical example
The second example: Putin holds an annual press conference almost every year, and then Putin personally gives direct answers to the questions that concern the Russian public. Of course, for Putin, the annual press conference is necessary, it has greatly improved Putin's personal image, and it has almost become a routine. But last year, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the 2022 annual press conference was not held, but this year is different, Putin's annual press conference and live broadcast connection are back, according to the global network: Putin has started speaking again!
This is a signal that cannot be ignored, it shows that after more than one year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, for Putin, everything is business as usual, and he will do what he needs to do, which is a kind of self-confidence. However, this time Putin once again "spoke" another background, creating a wave of momentum for next year's presidential election. Let's take a look at Putin's year-end "live broadcast".
(1) Putin's "live broadcast" is back online, and compared with last year, the changes in the objective situation have also changed Putin's mentality
According to a report from the global network, on December 14, local time, Putin's annual press conference began, and at this press conference, Putin began a long-lost "live broadcast".
Seeing this, it is estimated that some friends are about to ask: Hasn't Putin always had an annual press conference, and how can he say that it has been a long time coming? In fact, friends who know international relations know very well that for Putin, the annual press conference is a very important activity, and according to the reference news network, since 2001, Putin has started a "direct connection" television program, mainly by answering some questions raised by the Russian people through television programs, so as to achieve a certain interaction. However, there are many forms of operation, for example, there will be many Russian people who will pass on their concerns to relevant TV stations through various means in advance, of course, Putin cannot answer these questions one by one, in a limited time, the host will pick out some important and representative questions to ask Putin, and then Putin will answer directly on the spot.
In addition, there is some time to be given to journalists, who will use the opportunity to ask Putin some questions, and Putin will answer them. Let's just put it this way, this should be another form of "straight ball matchup".
For a long time, Putin's "live broadcast" and annual press conference have been an annual practice, and it is actually a kind of "straight-ball duel"
Since 2001, this program has become a routine, and Putin will answer questions live through such a "live connection" almost every year. According to the reference news network, before 2022, Putin has held 18 "live connections" like this. It is estimated that some friends will ask: Why is it only 18 times? It's very simple, because for four years Putin was not president, but prime minister. There was only one exception, though, and that was last year. In 2022, Putin did not hold a "live connection" and an annual press conference.
And this year Putin is online again, so this is the specific reason why the word "long absence" is used to describe it. However, there is one detail worth paying attention to: why did Putin not hold a "live connection" last year? Quite simply, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Generally speaking, Putin's "live connection" and annual press conference will be held at the end of the year, that is, in December. Because at this point in time, there is not only a summary of the problems of the past year, but also the outlook for the next year. But last year there was a problem on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. In September last year, the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack in Kharkiv and fought a fierce counteroffensive, almost expelling the Russian army from Kharkiv Oblast; The two consecutive defeats have affected the morale of the Russian army, and Putin has to focus on the battlefield in Ukraine. In addition, from the analysis of a person's normal mentality, I am afraid that the defeat on the battlefield has also had a certain impact on Putin's self-confidence. In this context, the "live connection" has been canceled in a vague way. In a sense, it is a reaction to the situation on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine and Putin's personal mentality.
This year, however, the situation is very different. Since June, the Ukrainian army has launched an attack on the Russian-controlled areas of the Russian army in Ukraine, but the results have been miserable, in front of the "Surovikin Line", the attacks of the Ukrainian army have been repulsed again and again, and the Ukrainian army itself has suffered heavy losses. In the end, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, had to admit frankly: this is a stalemate, and the West has to admit that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed.
On the battlefield in Ukraine, the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive has suffered a failure and is now basically in a state of stagnation
The defeat of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield and the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine have caused the West to suffer from "Ukrainian fatigue", and there are quite a few complaints about aid to Ukraine in the US Congress, and Republicans are even stuck in the aid plan for Ukraine and refuse a new round of aid. After entering 2023, in order to persuade Republicans to let him go, Zelensky has visited the United States twice in a row, but the results are not good. Republicans remain unmoved. For Ukraine, the instability of Western aid is a huge risk point, but for Putin, this is a very important opportunity.
In addition, Putin has ushered in another opportunity this year. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict erupted suddenly in October, and almost the world's attention was drawn to the Gaza Strip. In view of the special relationship between Israel and the United States, the United States, the majority of the aid to Ukraine, has also been forced to pay attention to the Middle East, and Blinken has even traveled to the Middle East many times recently. There is no doubt that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has directly diverted the attention of international public opinion, and Ukraine's attention has been diverted, and there is even a tendency to be marginalized. Such an international is very beneficial to Putin, and perhaps, as Zelensky said, if the international eyes continue to focus on the Middle East and ignore Ukraine, time will be on Putin's side. So the current situation seems to be in Putin's favor.
A few days ago, Putin visited the Middle East for the first time, visiting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in a whirlwind. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, subject to the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, the West's external sanctions and the International Court of Justice's want, Putin's foreign visit itinerary has been virtually greatly restricted, and his diplomatic visit is basically limited to neighboring friendly countries, especially friendly neighbors. But Putin's surprise visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, followed by a reception of the Iranian president in Moscow, has shown the outside world that Putin, who had been busy and confident in the past, has "returned." Perhaps the same can be said: Putin is "returning" to the international arena in some confident way.
If combined with the opening of this "live connection", it is obvious that this is another manifestation of Putin's self-confidence, compared with 1 year ago, Putin is obviously much more confident. In addition, there is another point to note: Russia will hold a presidential election in March next year, and Putin has already indicated that he will run. To a certain extent, this "live connection" can be seen as a "campaign activity" by Putin, and can also be seen as Putin's answer to future domestic and foreign policy trends. From the perspective of the election campaign, this "live connection" will further shorten the distance between Putin and the Russian people, and it will be a very good boost to Putin's election next year.
(2) Putin focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in his "opening speech", but it is estimated that this conflict will be difficult to end next year
Let's take a look at what Putin talked about in this "live connection". In view of the important content of Putin's "speech" this time, the global network made an inventory and summary. Here are a few highlights:
Western sanctions have not brought Russia down, benefiting from the development of the military industry, Russia's economy has maintained low growth
First, Putin talks about the domestic economy. At the press conference, Putin listed a series of figures on the performance of Russia's economic situation this year. But focus on these two: Russia's GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% this year, and unemployment is expected to grow by almost 3%.
The numbers are not large, but it is not easy for Russia to do both under the severe sanctions of the West. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has been subjected to severe sanctions by the West for more than 1 year, so to speak, the areas that the West can sanction and the sanctions that can be used have been exhausted. In addition, many Western companies have withdrawn from Russia under political pressure, which has also put a very huge pressure on the Russian economy.
In such a context, it is indeed not easy for Russia's GDP to still maintain 3.5%, as for the unemployment rate to increase by nearly 3%, this is a very normal thing, the large-scale withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises and severe sanctions on exports will inevitably affect employment. However, seeing this, it is estimated that some friends will question it: it seems that Western sanctions have not had an effect.
From a practical point of view, don't underestimate the power of Western sanctions, its impact on Russia's economy cannot be underestimated, and the reason why Russia was able to maintain a GDP growth of 3.5% and only increased the unemployment rate by 3% is mainly due to the pull of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a very large consumption of weapons, and from the Ukrainian side, it is no secret that now the West can no longer fully meet the needs of the Ukrainian army for weapons and ammunition on the battlefield. If this is still the case in Ukraine, why is it not the case that the Russian army consumes weapons and ammunition? Its consumption of weapons on the battlefield is much greater than that of Ukraine. However, unlike Ukraine, which relies on Western military aid, Russia, as a major military power in the world, has its own mature military production system. For Russia, the huge demand for weapons and ammunition on the battlefield will force rear military manufacturers to open more production lines, and as a result, a large number of jobs will be created.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield also has other jobs, such as the Russian army needs to expand recruitment, and the needs of the front line have great pressure on logistics, so logistics also needs to be expanded. So for Russia, despite its own Western sanctions, the demand for orders on the battlefield quickly drove the military-industrial complex to overheat production and provide a large number of jobs. From this analysis, the impact of severe Western sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign capital on the Russian economy has been partially hedged to some extent by the massive demand for the military.
Benefiting from the needs of the battlefield, Russia's military industry has achieved rapid growth, and the production line has been continuously expanded
Second, there is the issue of mobilization in Russia. In September last year, Putin began the first wave of partial military mobilization, but as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine became more and more intense, there was widespread speculation that as the war intensified, Russia would carry out a second wave of partial mobilization to mobilize more male citizens directly to the battlefield. Regarding this issue, Putin made it clear: there is no need for a second wave of general mobilization, because every day 1,500 people join the Russian army and become volunteers.
Putin also revealed that there are now a total of 486,000 volunteers. In Putin's view, the number of Russian troops on the current battlefield in Ukraine is enough to meet the needs of the conflict, and since there are enough people, there is no need for additional mobilization.
However, according to a report from the reference news network, Putin also added this figure in the "live broadcast connection": At present, the battlefield contact line between Russia and Ukraine is 2,000 kilometers long, and the number of Russian troops who have entered the battlefield in Ukraine has reached 617,000.
617,000, which is a very large number, but if you take into account the 2,000-kilometer-long front and the background of Ukraine's national mobilization, it is doubtful whether this 617,000 figure can crush the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. But one thing is certain, the defense should be sufficient, and there is no longer a major problem in holding the current Russian-occupied zone.
However, Putin also mentioned: Now the situation of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine is almost all good. Here it needs to be carefully analyzed, if the Russian army is simply satisfied with the defense of the whole line and the local offensive, there is no big problem. But if Putin's "improving on all fronts" refers to other meanings, this has to make people think: Will the Russian army have a new all-out offensive operation in the future? After all, there is a problem with the West's military aid to Ukraine, so isn't this an opportunity for Russia? This point will be left to be seen in the future.
Putin believes that the number of Russian troops is sufficient and there is no need for a new general mobilization
Third, Putin said in the "live broadcast connection": The military objectives of the Russian army have not changed. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin set military goals as "neutralization", "demilitarization", and "denazification". However, in addition to "neutrality", the other two goals have a big idea. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin's "demilitarization" was generally understood to mean the disarmament of Ukraine, and "denazification" was understood to mean the banning of radical nationalist and neo-Nazi organizations in Ukraine, although there was also public opinion that a new government might be installed in Ukraine.
As Russian troops withdrew from Kyiv one after another, Russia began to focus on the Donbass. Later, for a long time, the Russian side released mixed messages, including asking Ukraine to recognize the reality of "four places joining Russia" and not seeking to join NATO. But there is little mention of "demilitarization" and "denazification".
At this time, people began to wonder again: What is Putin's goal in Ukraine? Putin gave the answer in this "live connection", and the goal has not changed. In other words, it's still these three. However, if these three are still the case, Russia can only fight slowly, because to this day, Ukraine has been seeking to join NATO, and this willingness is still very strong.
Fourth, Putin described the current Russia-Ukraine conflict as a "fraternal civil war". He said: Russia and Ukraine are essentially one people.
There is no need to describe the historical relationship between Russia and Ukraine, both countries belong to the Eastern Slavs, have lived together for more than 300 years, have experienced Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union, and the history of Russia comes from Kiev. In Russia's view, this Russia-Ukraine conflict is a "brotherly civil war", but Ukraine may not see it this way, because this conflict has brought a very big disaster to Ukraine.
According to Putin, this conflict is a "civil war between brothers" and cannibalism
Putin also referred to the coup d'état in Ukraine, but also to the relationship between the United States and the coup d'état in Ukraine. The "Ukrainian coup" in Putin's mouth refers to the wave of protests in Ukraine during the Yanukovych period. This wave of protests can be described as a turning point in the fate of Ukraine. Putin has previously said that the coup was illegal and that the United States was behind it. In this "live connection", Putin pointed the finger at the root cause of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at the United States, saying: To create a conflict, a coup d'état in Ukraine is needed, and the United States does this.
Summarizing Putin's speech in the "live connection", there is not much attention in general, but it can be read from Putin's words that this conflict may not end even next year.