Chinanews.com, December 14 (Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) Mr. He lives between the Fifth and Sixth Ring Roads in Chaoyang District, Beijing. In the past few days, he saw a landlord in the same community in his circle of friends renting out a house, and the house has not been rented out for almost a month.
I watched him drop his monthly rent from more than 5,000 yuan to 300 yuan, and then 300 yuan. Has the rent been lowered recently?" Mr. Ho thought.
There are many people who feel the same way as him. Recently, the topic of "rent diving in first-tier cities" has sparked discussions, is it the trough of rents during the traditional week, or has the rental market really changed?
Data map: The vehicle passes in front of the first building. Photo by China News Service reporter Zhang Yun
Prices are mixed, and the price of scarce properties is not affected
"My house in Changping, Beijing, is a relatively remote place, it is really not easy to rent, it has been empty for a month, and the monthly rent price has been reduced by about 500 yuan, and it is still not rented out. ”
"My house is outside the 5th Ring Road in the south of Beijing, and the rent has dropped by 400 yuan a month, which can be regarded as renting out. After signing for a year, it can be said that I lost a few thousand yuan to enter. But it's better than being empty, and if you are empty for a month, you will lose thousands of dollars. ”
Several landlords in more remote areas of Beijing told the China News Financial Reporter that they did feel about the fact that "the house is difficult to rent". Wang Lin (pseudonym), who rents a house in Tongzhou District, Beijing, just renewed her house in September, but recently she opened the rental software and found that there are many new houses around, and the prices are lower than the one she is renting.
"I feel that there are more houses around, and the price is a lot lower, so I am a little entangled in whether to change houses next year, but I don't know what the market will be next year. Wang Lin said.
Wang Lin's entanglement is not unreasonable. Because in the eyes of most people, the current decline in rents is mainly affected by the season. "The rent is relatively expensive in March, April and July and August every year, and now it is the time to reduce the price before the Spring Festival, and you will not see this price after the Spring Festival. A real estate agent in Tongzhou District, Beijing told reporters.
As for how much the rent has dropped, he said that it has indeed dropped a little, and it feels more obvious that it is mainly for properties with more than two bedrooms. "According to the monthly rent, the maximum reduction of the shared rent is two or three hundred yuan, the one-bedroom and two-bedroom may be reduced by four or five hundred yuan, and the three-bedroom can be reduced by seven or eight hundred yuan. ”
"It may be that for renters, the price volatility felt by renting directly from the landlord is greater than renting from the platform. However, our intermediary will also have some secret competition, such as being more willing to press the service fee than before. The intermediary said.
However, a staff member of a real estate agency in Beijing's Third Ring Road said, "It's been an off-season recently, but the rent hasn't changed much." ”
"Our side is a relatively core location, and the price of scarce housing is basically unaffected. The location of the core and the periphery close to the subway can't go down, and it may go up instead. He said that there are only some "old and shabby" houses that have been reduced in price, and the monthly rent may be reduced by about four or five hundred yuan.
Rental market volatility is also related to the second-hand housing market
"In November, entering the off-season of leasing at the end of the year, the listed rent showed a slight downward trend. According to the data of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, only the listed prices in Shanghai in first-tier cities increased slightly by 1.5% month-on-month, and the listed prices in the rental markets of Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou all fell slightly month-on-month.
From the demand side, after the peak of leasing in the graduation season, the main characteristics of the off-season are the increase in inventory, the lack of new demand, the decline in rents, the longer transaction cycle, and the decline in market activity.
The decline in activity is also reflected in the overall rental situation. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, the average rental price in large and medium-sized cities across the country in November 2023 was 35.37 yuan/square meter/month, down 0.59% month-on-month and 0.25% year-on-year.
On the supply side, there are more options available in the rental market. According to data from 58 Anjuke Research Institute, in November, the new listed rental housing in first-tier cities performed better than the previous month, and the new listed supply in Shenzhen rebounded by 15.5% month-on-month.
The increase in the number of rental listings is also related to the situation in the second-hand housing market. One of the above-mentioned Beijing real estate agents told reporters: "Recently, housing prices are relatively low, and some landlords may wait and see if they don't want to sell at a low price." In order not to leave the house vacant for too long, they may rent it out for a period of time, which also increases the number of properties available for rent. ”
"As a platform, we will also take advantage of this time to collect more houses from landlords, and we have recently received a lot of listings, so we may see an increase in the number of listings on the platform. He also revealed.
"Since entering the traditional off-season, the demand for housing rental has weakened, and the housing of individual owners has shifted from listing for sale to listing for rent at the same time, or directly to listing for rent. Huang Hui, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, concluded that seasonal factors and the extension of the housing transaction cycle are the reasons for the increase in the number of housing listings in first-tier cities.
"The new demand is insufficient, the room for rent negotiation is expanding, and it is expected that rents will enter a stable and downward channel. Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that as the off-season for renting continues, rents in first-tier cities will most likely continue to decline until the end of the year.
Multiple real estate agencies. Photo by Su Ting
The effect of the rental housing policy has been revealed
While the rental market is closely related to the off-peak season, there are still some differences when looking at the trend over a larger period of time. According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, the monthly rent level of the 40 key cities in the country in the third quarter was 36.6 yuan per square meter, a steady decline year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline in rents in the first tier cities in the third quarter was slightly higher than that of the second-tier cities.
"The recent steady decline in rent levels is an important manifestation of the alleviation of the contradiction between leasing supply and demand with the support of various leasing policies in mainland China, which has improved the rent affordability of tenants and reduced the rent burden of tenants to a certain extent. Beike Research Institute believes that the mature housing rental market depends on effective supply, and in the context of the current rapid increase in supply, it is more conducive to the optimization of the quality of the supply side of housing rental.
Some industry insiders told the media that the changes in the rental market are also related to the increase in the supply of housing in the market, especially the entry of affordable rental housing into the market has given tenants more choices. Huang Hui also said: "Affordable rental housing has diverted part of the rental demand, and the number of affordable rental housing has shown a significant increase since 2021. ”
Since 2023, the progress of rental housing construction has been accelerating, especially in first-tier cities and popular second-tier cities. According to the data disclosed by the local housing and urban-rural development departments, since August this year, many provinces and cities have completed the annual fundraising task of rental housing ahead of schedule.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to accelerate the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages.
"Promoting the new model of affordable housing development will be an important measure in the next round of the real estate cycle. Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, believes that next year, more cities will accelerate the pace of affordable rental housing, and make diversified and high-quality rental housing continue to be on the market through multi-channel co-construction, so as to better realize the government's basic needs, the market to meet multi-level housing needs, and establish a housing system that combines rental and purchase. (ENDS)