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Text: Qingyuan
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Between China and the United States, the war spirit seems to be growing stronger.
In particular, the continuous fanning of the people has made public opinion move with the wind.
A few days ago, UN Secretary-General Gutierrez made it clear:
"The Great Split in the world is taking place. ”
This refers to the tension between China and the United States.
So, will there be a war between China and the United States?
(Will there be a war between China and the United States?)
A war between China and the United States in five years?
U.S.-China relations are hovering at a freezing point.
According to data from a British polling agency, more than 70 percent of Americans believe that "in less than five years, there will be a war between China and the United States."
Two years ago, less than 40 percent of Americans held this view.
In addition to the Americans, Indians and Japanese also strongly agree with the argument that "war between China and the United States is inevitable."
Of course, 11 percent of Americans believe that "a war between China and the United States is simply a fantasy."
It is worth mentioning that South Africa, Indonesia and other countries believe that the probability of war between China and the United States is more than 80%.
In response to such poll results, US Army Chief of Staff Charles Brown also stood for it, saying that "the United States is ready for anything that may come."
(U.S. Navy fleets frequently enter and exit mainland waters)
Intuitively speaking, the United States has reached a consensus on the "China threat".
If you ask an American a question on the side of the road, you will almost always hear the argument that "China is challenging the United States in various fields."
Where do Americans' worries come from?
Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the rejuvenation of China and the rapid development of economies such as the European Union and Japan, the economic advantage of the United States has lost its former courage.
Especially under the influence of the economic crisis in 2008 and the public health event in 2020, this performance has become more and more obvious.
Today, although the GDP of the United States still ranks first in the world, it has become an indisputable fact that the US economy is declining, both in terms of its leading position and in terms of global proportion.
(U.S. GDP declines)
Such a slip makes the Americans think that it is China that "snatched it all".
A professor at the University of Chicago believes that the decline in US GDP is not the fault of the United States itself, but China's repeated "provocation of the United States".
The sharp rhetoric seems to indicate that the apparent calm between China and the United States is about to be broken.
The economy, as the core element of US hegemony, has a direct bearing on whether or not the US hegemony can survive.
Regardless of whether the US economic hegemony declines or not, it is undeniable that in the 20 years since the beginning of the 21 st century, the global economy has grown and waned, and the advantage of US economic hegemony is bound to become smaller and smaller.
It is precisely because of this narrowing gap that the pressure on the United States is enormous, and everyone feels that it is an imminent competitor.
It is precisely on this basis that the Americans believe that a "Sino-American war" is inevitable.
Economic decline leads to internal divisions, and the United States has to rely on war to divert contradictions?
However, war is not something that can be provoked by a simple "economic decline".
The apparent economic decline is often riddled with holes on the inside – and this is often the root cause of war.
The direct manifestation of the decline of economic hegemony in the United States is that the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is further widening, that is, the so-called "economic differentiation will inevitably lead to social differentiation."
To put it mildly, this is almost the same as Germany before World War II.
According to the survey, the total number of poor people in the United States has exceeded 15%, that is, one in seven Americans is in poverty.
The bottom of the country has long been full of complaints.
But the Biden administration's approach to eradicating the number of people living in poverty is lackluster.
At the same time, the American middle class, known as the "social stabilizer", is shrinking.
According to the Pew Poll Center's "America's Middle Class is Shrinking," the U.S. middle class has been shrinking since 1971, declining at an average rate of 2.5 percent every decade.
The hollowing out of the middle class means an increase in the rich class, especially the poor class, which undoubtedly widens the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States:
The class antagonism brought about by the widening gap between the rich and the poor has become a direct manifestation of the economic level of social differentiation in the United States.
The social crisis of such divisions is often a precursor to war.
The outbreak of World War I and World War II was due to the country's internal economic malaise, and in order to stimulate development, it embarked on the road of war.
However, war is the next resort after all.
The United States will not dare to easily provoke a war until all methods fail.
(The gap between rich and poor in the United States continues to widen)
In order to heal social divisions and solve social problems, the president of the United States must consider domestic factors.
In fact, as early as the Obama era, the argument that "China and the United States will have a war" was overwhelming;
Later, when Trump took office, this statement reached its peak;
As for the current Biden era, many Americans are immune to the "Sino-US war".
From Trump to Biden, is the United States less of a "fringe Cold War" against China?
Before the outbreak of the hot war, the cold war was almost an inevitable process.
The appeasement policy of Britain and the United States towards Germany before the outbreak of World War II, and the puppet state of Manchukuo created before Japan's invasion of China...... This is essentially a manifestation of the "cold war".
The United States has also adopted a "new Cold War" against China:
To slander and slander China, the United States seems to want to put China on the opposite side of global countries, so as to make a possible war "famous".
(Biden)
The "trade war" that the United States is implementing today is undoubtedly a direct manifestation of the "new Cold War."
In 2019, a direct blow to the mainland became the beginning of a "new Cold War" and has been passed down until the Biden era.
More and more moves are showing that the muzzle of the United States is ready to move.
First of all, with regard to the mainland, the United States has always had a distinct trade protectionist color.
The United States violated the free trade agreement and unilaterally increased tariffs, thereby reducing the price advantage of mainland products and improving the competitiveness of its domestic products, so as to ensure the competitiveness of the American economy.
The most typical example is the trade war launched by the U.S. government against the mainland, which imposed an additional 25% tariff on more than $350 billion of Chinese products exported to the United States.
Second, the United States has applied economic sanctions against the mainland more and more frequently.
In order to strike at the mainland and maintain its economic hegemony, the United States has used a large number of economic sanctions in the field of foreign economic competition.
Unlike Trump's protectionism, the Biden administration believes that U.S. leadership on a global scale is needed if U.S. interests and values are to be realized.
In fact, after Biden took office, the United States began to focus on restoring the rules and striving to regain dominance of the rules.
At the same time, the U.S. foreign policy will continue to strengthen the protection of scientific and technological innovation, and "chain control China" will become an important means to ensure the United States' leadership in emerging science and technology.
In order to ensure the legitimacy and long-term effectiveness of the United States' emphasis on supply chain competition, it has successively introduced highly targeted bills such as the 2021 American Innovation and Competition Act and the CHIPS Act, and organized international conferences related to supply chains.
(The United States is engaged in chip sanctions)
At the same time, it attaches importance to leveraging the strength of allies to achieve scientific and technological competition and economic regional confrontation through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and actively promoting the "Chip4" chip alliance between the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and launching the "Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership".
The United States is trying to change the original "global industrial supply chain system dominated by China as the core", realize "Made in the United States" on a global scale to replace "Made in China", and then boost the domestic economy of the United States.
Biden has made it clear that the overall goal of the US strategy toward China is to "compete to win," so behind the "war" is deep-seated competition in the economic field.
For war with China, the US military is ready?
The economy is sluggish, but the United States spends a lot of money on the military.
Is the United States ready for war with China?
(U.S. fleet)
After Biden took office, he directly believed that the overall contraction strategy of the Obama era was the root cause of the decline of the US military and the decline of the United States.
Rebuilding the US military and making it strong again is the greatest determination of the United States at this stage.
Biden's guiding ideology of military strategy of "seeking peace through strength" indicates the increasing importance of military hegemony in the support of US hegemony.
At first, the United States used Ukraine as a fulcrum and penetrated deep into the Black Sea region, constantly compressing Russia's strategic space;
Subsequently, the United States identified China as its competitor, and the entire strategic center has shifted from the war on terror to all-out competition among major powers.
Therefore, as early as the Trump era, the United States increased its military spending significantly, and at the same time established a space force and improved its cyber combat capabilities, and withdrew from the "Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty" to accelerate the improvement of the United States' new combat platform.
Moreover, Trump's attitude towards nuclear weapons has become more aggressive.
(Trump)
The Trump administration has rejected the Obama administration's policy of not adding new nuclear capabilities, emphasizing that the United States should flexibly adjust its nuclear capabilities and strategy in response to the changing world nuclear security environment.
As for the Indo-Pacific region, which it focuses on, it has increased its investment in military forces and strengthened military cooperation with India and Australia.
Since Biden took office, he has clearly launched an all-out competition and confrontation with China.
What is reflected behind the science and technology war is not only the level of economic interests, but more importantly, science and technology determine the development of the future military level, so Biden's core competition point is based on science and technology war.
Whether it is the goal of technological alliance or the strategy of small courtyards and high walls, it is to achieve technological containment and blockade of China and other new countries, and then realize the technological monopoly of the United States and protect its military hegemony.
In addition, the 2023 Fiscal National Defense Authorization Act signed by Biden provides for $10 billion in military aid and $2 billion in military loans to (China) Taiwan from 2023 to 2027, while also mentioning accelerated arms sales to Taiwan......
(Will there be a war between China and the United States?)
Therefore, the hegemonic strategic transformation during the Biden era reflects the continued importance of military hegemony strategy, which is manifested in more concern for the military application of emerging technology - China's Taiwan is becoming a "lever" for the strategic competition between the United States and China.
Whether there is a war between China and the United States, whether there is a war or not, the iron needs to be its own - China should be cautious in the midst of "uncertainty".
Resources:
Relations between major countries: China and the United States parted ways, or did they go the same way? Beijing:CITIC Press,2019.
Yan Xuetong.The transfer of power in the world: political leadership and strategic competition[M].Beijing:Peking University Press,2020.
From Transition to Crisis: The Impact of "America First" on the International Order[J].International Outlook,2022(1).
Wang Heyi, Jin Canrong.The Construction Mechanism and Problem Analysis of the American Liberal International Order under the Perspective of Soft Power[J].Teaching and Research,2022(1).
Chen Qi, Liu Yuqun.Double standards of U.S. foreign policy[J].People's Forum,2023(1).