The Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, what is the excitement of gold?

The Fed's dot plot is actually okay, the 3 interest rate cuts are less than half of the 6 interest rate cuts expected by the market, but Powell's mouth really can't eat hard rice, and I don't know if Yellen scolded too fiercely in the so-called "Fed mouthpiece" yesterday or what's going on, Powell revealed a word "cowardice" from the inside out, you said secondary inflation? No, no, you said you want to raise interest rates? No, no, you say recession? No, no, you say interest rate cuts? You can start to think, okay, really, what I wanted yesterday was a Fed with a dove in the middle, not a dove Fed, although I also think that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in the future is very low after seeing the PPI (producer prices) drop sharply, but you don't have to say that you want to consider cutting interest rates, right?

I really feel angry when I think about it, but I can't help it, sooner or later there will be such a day, but I didn't expect it to come at the last resolution of the year, what puzzles me is that the rise of gold in a wave of 2144 has even digested the interest rate cut in March, why do you have to be excited about the interest rate cut in May? I can still find reasons for the bearishness in the back, such as economic data telling the market that it is impossible to cut interest rates in May, or the ECB is more dovish than the Fed, and it just so happens that there are these two data today, retail sales and the ECB's interest rate decision.

Let's talk about the European Central Bank first, their hawkish economist Schnabel has turned around for a month, and Lagarde has also turned dovish, so it depends on whether the signal they released from this decision will also consider cutting interest rates at some point in the future like Powell, after all, the eurozone economy has a hard landing, hurry up, the economy needs a boost from a low interest rate environment.

And retail sales, the market is also cowardly enough, actually in the previous value of -0.1 on the basis of a negative value, this is not at all the consumer's spending power in the eyes, this data is not good for the pessimism of the institution, just look at the positive value on the line, you say in this case why can't I be bearish on gold? You tell me that the Federal Reserve is considering cutting interest rates?

Seeing this line, do you know what I'm going to do? That's right, directly bearish on gold! I won't think about the continuation of the rise, because 2144 is a good example before, remember that the market was expected to cut interest rates by 140 points, and the expected range in the early hours of this morning is not the same as before? The increase of $50 is in response to the market, I have fully priced it, then the next thing is to see the time to see the pullback, from a technical point of view, let's first look for the high point after 2144, remember, the market has happened, the market will not give you time to be frustrated, you must sort out your thoughts and start again, which is also a trading link that must be experienced.

The first time I saw 2035, I remembered that it was the high point of non-farming, which is equivalent to saying that this wave of gold pricing rose to complete the recovery of the second stage of decline, that is, the primary V-shaped reversal, as for whether the reversal can be successful, it depends on whether the right pull up will expand, simply put, it is to look at the US market tonight, so before this I think it is necessary to do trading participation, after entering the market to see a wave of 2008 fallback, it is a bit difficult to directly see through 2000, and you can not accept such a reversal result, so the stop loss only needs to be brought around 1945。

Why bearish? In addition to the trading timing I just mentioned, there is also a technical trend line in place, don't always think about what to cut interest rates, so what to do? The whole people are bullish, right? Anyway, everyone knows the rising market, chasing it is over, since you can't judge the market sentiment, just honestly look at the K-line reaction, if there is a signal, just participate, the fundamental answer will definitely appear after your transaction works, don't worry.

Disclaimer: There will be a lag in the update of the article, and it needs to be judged based on the actual situation

               This article only represents personal views and is for reference only, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market