The 2023-2024 NBA regular season is basically a quarter of the way through, and the lineup run-in of teams such as the Clippers, Warriors, Suns, and Bucks, who made big trades this summer, has basically taken shape. And some teams aiming for the playoffs and championships have also exposed a lot of problems. In order to solve these problems, it is likely that these teams will make a last-ditch effort to strengthen their team's shortcomings through trades after the trade market opens, towards the stated goal of the playoffs or the Finals. The American media "Basketball Reference" is currently predicting the probability of 30 NBA teams reaching the playoffs this season. Among them, the two teams beat the defending champion Nuggets, seven teams are out early, and the probability of the Suns advancing to the playoffs is only 36%.
Let's start with a look at the West. This season, the Timberwolves and Thunder have become the two biggest dark horses in the West. The Timberwolves, who are currently at the top of the list, have a 100% chance of advancing to the playoffs, and the Thunder, who are in second place, also have a probability of nearly 100%, beating the defending champion Nuggets with a 93% probability. The teams ranked 4~11 are Houston Rockets (90%), Mavericks (83%), Lakers (74%), Clippers (72%), Warriors - (63%), Kings (55%), Suns - (36%), Pelicans (32%), and the Green Shirts Celtics have become the only team in the East with a 100% probability of advancing to the playoffs. Teams including the Magic, 76ers Bucks, and Heat are also on the list. And the Spurs, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Jazz, Hornets, Wizards, Pistons. The 0% probability of these seven teams advancing to this season's playoffs also indicates that these seven teams are likely to return home after the regular season to prepare for next season's games.
The probability that the Suns, the favorites in the Western Conference, will advance to the playoffs this season is only 32%, which is somewhat unbelievable. According to the ranking of the probability of advancing to the playoffs given by the American media, the Suns may have to participate in this year's playoff playoffs to get a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. The Suns sent away Paul and Ayton this summer to form a new Big Three roster of Durant Booker and Beal. But Beal has been plagued by a serious back injury and has only played four games for the Suns so far, leaving the Suns' Big Three without enough run-in, which may be the main reason why the Suns' chances of advancing to the playoffs are so low.
But I believe that whether the Suns directly qualify for the playoffs or advance through the play-offs, the Suns are the most feared and must overcome by other Western Conference championship teams. Although the Suns' defensive ability is insufficient, but with Durant Booker and Beal, the Suns' scoring ability can be called a terrifying level, and if the Suns want to win the championship, in addition to the Big Three must play at the level they should have, role players can provide stable output for the team when the Big Three are limited by opponents, and relieve the pressure on the shoulders of the Big Three at both ends of the offensive and defensive ends, which has also become a key factor in whether the Suns can advance to the playoffs from the strong West.
If the Suns fail to advance, perhaps the playoffs stars Durant and Booker will reconsider their futures, which will be the deadliest blow to the Suns.