In today's world, the dynamics of the U.S.-China relationship are not just between the two countries, but also affect the global economic and political landscape. In a seemingly relaxed yet potentially tense financial war, every move could trigger a ripple effect.
So, how do we view the current U.S.-China relationship, is the U.S. paving the way for the final struggle, and how should China respond?
1. The current situation in China-US relations
In 2023, the U.S.-China relationship has presented a complex and volatile dynamics. This is not only a confrontation between two world powers, but also an important chess game for the global economy and geopolitics. The future direction of China-US relations has attracted the attention of the world, and the current situation shows a series of challenges and opportunities.
1. China under economic and political pressure
China is currently facing multiple social, economic, and public health challenges at home. These internal pressures have pushed the Chinese leadership to seek to stabilize the external environment so that it can focus on solving domestic problems.
China's attitude towards foreign relations, especially with the United States, is particularly important, not only for its image on the international stage, but also for the evaluation of its leadership at home.
However, according to the Brookings Institution, China's foreign policy shows no signs of softening toward the United States. On the contrary, Xi Jinping stressed at the 20th Party Congress that China needs to "struggle" in the face of Western opposition.
2. U.S. strategy toward China
In the United States, the government is stepping up its competition with China. More high-level congressional visits are expected to Taiwan, and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will raise public criticism of China's activities. This intensification of competition is likely to further intensify the relationship between the two sides.
The Biden administration will invest in strengthening deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region and seek to limit China's technological advances in sensitive areas of national security. The move shows that the United States is wary of China's growing influence.
3. Possible mitigation strategies
Despite the tensions between China and the United States, both sides may also look for opportunities for détente. A "fight-and-talk" strategy is likely to be adopted, which will not only help Beijing focus on solving its domestic problems, but may also reduce the challenge to U.S. interests in China.
In the U.S., the Biden administration is likely to set the agenda for relations with China by clearly setting specific annual goals. These initiatives include practical measures to reduce risks in the area of security, such as agreements on the use of emerging technologies. In addition, the two sides have common interests in areas such as the Global Disease Surveillance Network and climate change.
4. Challenges
In dealing with China, the United States also faces a series of other global challenges, such as pandemics, mass migration, global economic recession, global warming, etc. Among these challenges, China is undoubtedly a factor that cannot be ignored.
The United States needs to stand up to its interests and values while recognizing that China's role is indispensable in almost all major global challenges.
2. Possible strategies of both sides
In the current U.S.-China relationship, both sides are struggling to find strategies that maximize their own interests while maintaining stability in this challenging international environment.
1. China's strategy
Stabilizing the external environment: Given the current economic and social pressures at home, the Chinese leadership may seek to focus on addressing domestic challenges by appeasing the external environment.
On the international stage, China needs to maintain a stable and dignified image, especially in its relations with the United States. This is not only related to China's international status, but also to the domestic evaluation of the leadership.
Sticking to the spirit of "struggle": Despite the potential for détente, China's foreign policy shows no signs of softening toward the United States. At the 20th Party Congress, it was stressed that China needs to "struggle" in the face of Western opposition. This suggests that China is likely to remain firm against the United States even as it seeks external stability.
Diplomacy and military action: China is likely to increase pressure on Taiwan and continue to impose tight controls in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and other regions. In addition, China's diplomatic activities will not decrease, the scope and frequency of the PLA's operations will expand as its capabilities grow, and China will continue to take active measures in areas such as international intellectual property acquisition.
2. The strategy of the United States
Increased Competition: The United States will increase its competition with China through a series of measures. The United States will invest in strengthening deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region and limiting China's technological advances in sensitive areas of national security.
Take advantage of diplomatic opportunities: While Beijing may see the benefits of easing tensions with the United States, the United States should set its agenda by articulating specific annual goals.
For example, the specific goals and markers for advancing those goals that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out during his visit to China in early 2023 will help move the relationship toward America's top concerns and priorities.
Cooperation in Security: The U.S. and China can take practical steps to mitigate risks, such as reaching an agreement on the use of emerging technologies.
Both countries could benefit from limiting the use of AI-powered autonomous weapon systems. In addition, the parties could agree on restrictions on the testing of anti-satellite weapons in terms of preventing the creation of orbital debris.
epilogue
When looking at the future direction of U.S.-China relations, we must recognize that this is not just a wrestling between the two superpowers, but a key factor in the global political and economic landscape. In these challenging times, every step of the United States and China has far-reaching global implications.
The future of U.S.-China relations depends not only on the internal policies and strategic choices of both sides, but also on the global political and economic environment. In this environment, the leaders of both countries need to demonstrate unprecedented wisdom and vision in order to protect their own interests while maintaining global stability and peace.
While competition and contradiction seem to be the leitmotif of the current relationship, there are common interests and room for cooperation on some key issues, such as climate change, public health, and global security. Cooperation in these areas can not only move bilateral relations forward, but also provide solutions to global challenges.
We must recognize that the development of the relationship between China and the United States, as the world's two largest economies and political powers, will profoundly affect the future of the world.
The establishment of a stable, mutually beneficial relationship between the two countries is essential for global peace and prosperity. In this ever-changing world, China and the United States must work together to address the challenges and opportunities ahead with wisdom and patience.