A miraculous reversal

On Monday, A-shares came out of the bottoming out rally and opened sharply, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.32% to 2,930 points, and then starting a rebound trend, closing at 2,991 points, up 0.74%. From the perspective of industry, except for the four sectors of food and beverage, real estate, non-ferrous metals, and steel, other sectors all recorded gains, and media, coal, computers, military and other sectors rose first.

The Shanghai Composite Index is still below 3,000 points, but there is no obvious panic in the market, and everyone is still full of confidence in winning the "3,000-point defense war".

This week, the market is looking forward to two meetings. The first is the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the second is the central economic work conference that may be held on Friday.

If there is expectation, there is expectation, and the index will not move, not to mention that it has reached a low point.

As far as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is concerned, it is likely to be a signal that the Fed will end its interest rate hike. From this point on, the market will start trading the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to drive a new round of downward movement in the 10-year Treasury rate and drive global equity markets to continue to rise. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will also benefit.

As far as the Central Economic Work Conference is concerned, combined with the Politburo meeting on December 8, there is a high probability that stable growth will exceed expectations. On December 8, the Politburo meeting set the tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking". "Promoting stability through progress" focuses on "progress", that is, solving problems in the process of growth, and there will be higher demands for economic growth next year. "Establish first and then break", which can be understood as "standing but not breaking" in the short term, and the new and old kinetic energy will work at the same time to help the economy stabilize.

As long as the Central Economic Work Conference clarifies a higher economic growth target of 5%, market confidence can be activated, and a bottom reversal can be expected at any time!

In short, with the blessing of the expectations of the two major meetings, the stock market is worth looking forward to this week.

As far as December is concerned, the Federal Reserve has ended its interest rate hikes, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth has been strengthened, and the "spring restlessness" market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is also worth looking forward to.

At the bottom, the valuation of most sectors is very cheap, but the market is still a stock characteristic, funds are limited, the probability of the whole industry rising is not large, the probability is still a structural market, and the focus should be on catalytic factors.

Combined with the Central Economic Work Conference, there is a high probability that there will still be important expressions in the digital economy, artificial intelligence, etc., and continue to promote economic transformation and upgrading. Catalyzed by this, AI, semiconductors and other technology sectors are likely to have excess returns. Recently, the media and computer sectors have risen highly, which can be regarded as a forward-looking signal.

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