In 2010, Tianya Forum came out of a KK god, the real estate research is quite thorough, these predictions are divided into 13 steps, from "opening the floodgates" to "RMB internationalization", involving housing prices, government policies, bank operations, foreign exchange security and other aspects.
- Opening the floodgates: The government increases market liquidity through loose monetary policy.
- Soaring home prices: The real estate market has witnessed a significant increase in home prices.
- Land Sale to Solve Local Government Debt Crisis: Local governments sell land to solve their financial difficulties.
- Drive RMB deposits into the property market: Encourage or force depositors' deposits to shift to the property market and increase real estate investment.
- The biggest enemy of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange disappears, and foreign exchange is temporarily safe: the risk of foreign exchange reserves is reduced, and the foreign exchange market is temporarily stable.
- Tightening money with the US dollar: China's central bank has followed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy closely and tightened the money supply.
- Banks transfer most of their risk through CDS: Banks use credit default swap (CDS) instruments to transfer risk.
- Price caps create ceilings and house prices fall: The government creates a cap on house prices through a price cap policy, which causes house prices to start falling.
- RMB funds are locked in after receiving orders at high prices or investors cannot cash out: investors are unable to cash out after receiving orders at high prices, and their funds are locked in the real estate market.
- Land Finance Transition: Shift from relying on income from land sales to relying more on taxes.
- Introducing a property tax: Introducing a property tax, affecting the real estate market and investors.
- Drive surplus funds back into the real economy and preserve jobs: Government policies aim to channel funds from the real estate market back to the real economy to keep employment stable.
- Renminbi internationalization: The use of the renminbi in the international market has increased, reducing its dependence on the US dollar.
The prediction of the god of Tianya KK is a speculation based on the economic environment and policy trend at that time, which has a certain degree of rationality and reference value, but cannot completely accurately predict the future economic trend.
However, there are some logical errors and factual deviations in the prophecy of the god of the end of the world. For example, he believes that the land sale to solve the local debt crisis has been completed, but in fact the problem has not been solved, he believes that the transfer of risk by banks through CDS has been completed, but in fact the banks have not done so, and he believes that the introduction of property tax can kill retail investors, when in fact the tax has nothing to do with supply and demand, and will not affect the transaction price. In addition, there are some overly absolute expressions in the prophecy of the god of Tianya KK, for example, he believes that it is feasible to drive funds into the real estate to ensure employment, but in fact, the flow of funds does not rely on driving, but on arbitrage into the real economy.
On the whole, although the prediction of the god of Tianya KK has a certain reference value, it cannot completely accurately predict the future economic trend. For example, the relevant summary above:
- Opening the floodgates: M2 growth is more than double GDP, but it is debatable whether the actual situation is in line with the predictions.
- Soaring housing prices: While it is true that housing prices in China have risen, this is related to urbanization and industrialization, and is not an unusual ratio to GDP.
- Land Sale to Solve Local Debt Crisis: Pointing out that this prophecy has not been realized, but rather a lack of budgetary constraints.
- Driving RMB deposits into the property market: This is a misconception that residents are actually buying properties through loans, rather than deposits, directly into the property market.
- SAFE's enemies disappear, foreign exchange security: Emphasize that foreign exchange security has not been resolved, and foreign exchange controls still exist.
- Following the US imperialist tightening of monetary policy: China's central bank does not fully follow the Fed's monetary policy, but makes decisions based on its own circumstances.
- Banks transfer risk through CDS: In reality, banks do not use CDS to transfer risk extensively, but rather take other measures.
- Bursting the bubble and falling house prices: Emphasizing that the decline in house prices is more due to a weak economy and low confidence than a bursting bubble.
- Investors who take over at a high level are unable to cash out: The reality shows that the impact of property speculation is overestimated, and there is still room for housing prices in Beijing to rise.
- Land Finance Transition: The problem of land finance is seen as a lack of institutional constraints, rather than a simple transition problem.
- Introducing a property tax to kill retail investors: Property tax has little to do with market supply and demand, and its impact on retail investors is exaggerated.
- Evicting capital into the real sector to preserve employment: Capital flows are considered to be due to market mechanisms rather than forced evictions.
- RMB Internationalization: Emphasizing that the internationalization of the RMB requires more openness and courage, rather than just squeezing the real estate market.
Therefore, the economy is a complex system that is affected by a variety of factors, and there are certain uncertainties and risks in any forecast. Therefore, we need to look at various forecasts and perspectives with an open and inclusive mind, and at the same time, we need to pay attention to the actual situation of the economy and the direction of policies, and make rational and responsible judgments and decisions.