The stock markets of the United States, Japan, Germany, and India have reached new highs, and the social security news has exploded in the intraday market

Let's take a look at overseas markets first:

Last night, the final value of the Markit services PMI released by the United States in November was 50.8, in line with market expectations, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States in November was 52.7, higher than the market expectation of 52, and the number of JOLTs job openings in the United States in October was 8.733 million, significantly lower than the market expectation of 9.3 million, the lowest level since March 2021, indicating that the US job market continues to cool.

Affected by this, the yield of the U.S. 10 bonds fell below 4.2% again last night, the European and American stock markets rose, the U.S. stock Nasdaq closed up 0.31%, and the Asia-Pacific stock market rose today. It is worth mentioning that in addition to the gold, Indian, and Japanese stock markets that have reached new highs, European stock markets have either reached new highs or are approaching new highs.

The most outrageous is that the German DAX index has also reached a new high, you must know that the German economy is in a quagmire this year, and the automobile industry is also overtaken by the mainland's new energy vehicles. Therefore, there is no need to find various reasons, what A-shares lack is confidence, and what is lacking is financial unity.

However, it should be noted that the current market is more optimistic about the Fed's early interest rate cut, and the pricing is relatively sufficient, which has overdrawn the rebound space. Now the market is not very concerned about the Fed's "mouth cannon", and only unexpected economic data can calm the market down. Tonight, the US will release the small non-farm payrolls data for November, and on Friday the November non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate will be released, if the data exceeds expectations, it should pour cold water on the current global stock market.

The global stock market, which is in the new high school, seems to be sending us a signal that the global economy is thriving after an epidemic, a big water release, and a big interest rate hike, but is this really the case? Will the unprecedented water release coupled with the unprecedented violent interest rate hike in history only make the global stock market retreat and rise without sequelae? Whether the global economy can still maintain a low interest rate and low inflation environment as before the epidemic, we feel that there is a question mark.

Let's take a look at the domestic news:

Yesterday, Moody's downgraded China's sovereign credit rating outlook, there will be a lot of worries about the impact of A-shares, but from a historical point of view, Moody's first two downward adjustments to China's sovereign credit rating, corresponding to A-shares in the stage of the bottom area, and then A-shares immediately out of the 1-6 months of shock upward market, and from the market performance at that time, the impact on bonds, foreign exchange, stock markets is not large, the impact on Chinese dollar bonds will be greater, but at present, China does not have a corresponding short-selling tool, so the lag rating of the bottom area / The downward outlook for A-shares is more like a hint of the bottom zone than a basis for panic than the current pessimism.

To put it simply, many of the grand narratives, including Moody's downgrade outlook, are more like post-mortem summaries after a long and difficult decline. Although it may not be hindsight, it is certainly not prescient, why did you go after falling for so long. Moreover, when this kind of judgment is made after a long period of rise or fall that appears to be particularly insightful and becomes the consensus expectation of everyone, it is often the beginning of a reversal. For example, after experiencing the big bull market of core assets in 2020, the market shouted "liquor yyds, small tickets have no value", and then liquor saw a big top, but small tickets came out of the bull market.

Yesterday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it will comprehensively promote the reform of the investment side, further expand the medium and long-term sources of funds, increase the actual proportion of equity asset investment, implement the long-term assessment mechanism, and strive to optimize the market mechanism environment. According to the Financial Associated Press, the Ministry of Finance issued a letter on soliciting opinions from the public on the "Measures for the Administration of Domestic Investment in the National Social Security Fund (Draft for Comments)", and the maximum investment ratio of the social security fund in stocks and equity assets can reach 40% and 30% respectively, making it clear that ETFs can be invested.

Today, A-shares bottomed out and rebounded after opening low, and once rushed higher in the intraday, but the fear of the early fall still dominated the market, so the rebound was selling pressure, and the tail index rose and fell. Today's lithium sector performed well, Yongxing Materials, Jixiang shares rose to the limit, and lithium carbonate futures fell from the opening limit to the closing limit.

We deliberately shared the logic of lithium ore in today's pre-market "Gudong Investment Research", recently in the lithium carbonate futures continued to fall at the same time, lithium stocks refused to adjust, the weak is not weak as strong, see the figure below.

Finally, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.58%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.83%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.76%. The turnover of the two cities shrank slightly, and the northbound funds bought a net of 2.342 billion.

Today, Shenglong shares, Huifa food, Dongan power and other demon stocks opened and fell to the limit, we have summarized before, speculation and speculation are against the market, and the weakness of the market is the hotbed of theme speculation, but if the market begins to strengthen, the theme speculation will ebb and flow.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently