The southeast and northwest are white, and the A-share speculation is "mahjong cards"? 3000 points of defense war reappear, how to go in the future?

The A-share market is such a magical place!

Since the beginning of this year, all kinds of speculation have been blowing in the A-share market. Previously, it was fried "one dragon", and then it was fried by numbers, and recently it was fried into "mahjong tiles".

This rather "nonsensical" mode of operation does have a certain effect on activating the market. But as we approach the end of the year, we also need to be aware of the risks.

The "mahjong table" was moved to the A-share market

This morning, Dong'an power rose again, Nanjing business travel has been six boards, a few days ago the bull stock Xilong Science has just rested, Beiba media has risen again, Zhongguang Tianxue has also been four boards, Huifa food has recently doubled the market, Baiyun Tianqi rose yesterday.

Bored investors were quick to decipher the mysterious numbers.

It turns out that the A-share market has recently speculated on "mahjong cards" - white in the southeast, northwest and northwest.

In the past period, A-shares first speculated on the "dragon", and many doubled stocks were deduced from that period of market. Then there is the speculation of numbers, which is also wonderful.

Some market participants said that it would not be surprising if there was a trend of hyping the "five elements (gold, wood, water, fire and earth)" in the market in the future.

According to the Securities Times, there may be some logic behind these hypes, or maybe it's just a coincidence. For example, Dongan Power also belongs to Huawei's concept stocks. While this hype has brought some activity to the market, the risks may also be increasing.

According to the Financial Associated Press, it is worth noting that with the ebb of capital speculation, the share price of Xilong Science, a previous big bull stock, fell 25% from its high.

Previously, the stock price of Xilong Science rose significantly. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of concern to the company, requiring the company to explain whether there was a situation of actively catering to the market hotspots to speculate the company's stock price.

In addition, the company has repeatedly clarified that it does not produce and sell photoresist, and only produces a small amount of chemical reagents for photoresist supporting reagents, and the proportion of revenue is very low.

After the regulator took action, the stock price of Xilong Science started a round of "A-word killing".

Market analysis pointed out that the company's stock price rise is mainly speculation, and investors should invest rationally and not blindly follow the trend.

According to the Financial Associated Press, it is public funds and northbound funds that determine the medium-term market trend, while it is the floating capital that determines the short-term market fluctuations. Floating capital does not determine the medium-term trend, but it can determine the rhythm and transmit emotions. And behind these "nonsensical" hype, there is a high probability of floating capital.

However, as an ordinary investor, it is easy to be confused by illusions, so you should keep your eyes open and avoid the trap of speculation. Rational investment and value investment form a mature and rational investment culture.

The 3,000-point defense battle of A-shares has reappeared

This rather "nonsensical" operation method does have a certain effect on activating the market, but towards the end of the year, it is also necessary to pay attention to risks.

According to the Securities Times, the biggest risk at the moment is still the downside risk of the broader market. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points again before recovering. The 3000-point defense battle can be described as a dozen and again, so how will the follow-up market go?

Huatai Securities believes that the mid-term industrial prosperity index and PMI data in November reflect that the current fundamental expectations are still to be repaired, and the actual inventory inflection point may still need to observe the results of the G-end force, and the remaining liquidity will step back; The above changes may be repeated in response to the enhancement of the effectiveness of the economic strategy, and the changes in capital and fundamentals + the approach of important meetings all point to policy expectations or are the main transaction clues, but it is difficult to participate. In terms of allocation, it is recommended that dividend low-volatility assets be the bottom position, cycle recovery + hot catalytic varieties seek flexibility, and short-term participation in the "three low" varieties.

Debang Securities said that the relevant indicators of stocks and bonds in the asset linkage index show that the current allocation value of stocks and bonds is still at an absolute high level in the long cycle, and the quantile of the relative yield of stocks and bonds is nearly 100%, which needs to be supported by the policy side; In terms of market trading/sentiment indicators, the turnover rate changed little, the industry trend indicators weakened slightly month-on-month, and the individual stock trend indicators strengthened slightly compared to October and improved at the end of the month. In terms of investor behavior, the scale of buybacks has improved, and the cash flow indicator has also improved, but it is still negative. To sum up, the market environment in November has been repaired compared with October, and the current market theme atmosphere is strong, and individual stock indicators are better than industry indicators.

From an external point of view, Morgan Stanley believes that for the first half of 2024, strategists advise investors to be patient and selective. Risks to monetary policy-driven global growth remain high, and earnings headwinds are likely to persist into early 2024 until the recovery takes hold. As risk assets begin to price in expectations of slower economic growth, global equities typically begin to sell off three months before a new round of monetary easing. If central banks continue to cut interest rates as planned, starting in June, valuations in global equities could fall in early 2024.

(The views in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )

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