The social security fund is a reserve fund set up by the state to cope with the future pension peak, which is related to the vital interests of hundreds of millions of people. However, recently, the 2022 annual report of the social security fund released by the National Council for Social Security Fund shows that in 2022, the investment income of the social security fund will be -138.09 billion yuan, and the investment return rate will be -5.07%. This is the first time in the 23 years since the establishment of the social security fund that there has been a loss for two consecutive years, and it is also the largest loss in history. What is going on? Is there something wrong with the investment ability of the social security fund? Or is there another reason?
In order to explore the truth about the loss of the social security fund, we interviewed an unnamed financial expert, who analyzed the investment strategy and performance of the social security fund, as well as the reasons behind the loss of the social security fund. He believes that the loss of the social security fund is not due to the decline in investment ability, but because of the impact of the global economy and market, especially the intervention and suppression of the United States.
The investment strategy and performance of the Social Security Fund
The social security fund is a national-level investment institution, and its investment strategy is to be stable, pursuing long-term returns, rather than short-term fluctuations. The asset allocation of the social security fund stipulates that the proportion of bank deposits and treasury bond investment shall not be less than 50%, the proportion of securities investment funds and stock investment shall not be higher than 40%, the proportion of enterprise bonds and financial bonds shall not be higher than 20%, and the proportion of trust loan investment shall not be higher than 10%. The investment channels of the social security fund mainly include direct investment and entrusted investment, of which entrusted investment accounts for more than 60%, mainly entrusted to public funds, securities company asset management, trust and other institutions.
The investment performance of the social security fund, judging from the history since its establishment, is quite excellent. Since its establishment, the average annual investment rate of return of the social security fund has been 7.66%, and the cumulative investment income has reached 1,657.554 billion yuan. The social security fund has only suffered three losses in history, namely in 2008, 2018 and 2022, and the losses are not large, -6.79%, -2.04% and -5.07% respectively. The investment performance of the social security fund in history can be said to outperform most funds and investors, and even outperform the index.
The reason behind the loss of the social security fund
This is because 2022 is a very turbulent year for the global economy and market, and the investment areas of the social security fund, including stocks, bonds, real estate, etc., have been affected to varying degrees, resulting in a decline in investment income. In these shocks, the intervention and suppression of the United States is a factor that cannot be ignored.
First, the U.S. stepped up sanctions and pressure on China's economy and trade in 2022, leading to an escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States, affecting China's exports and economic growth. The United States has also suppressed and blocked China's technology companies, restricting China's technological innovation and development. The United States has also provoked military and political confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and other regions, increasing regional instability and risks. These moves have had a negative impact on China's economy and market, and have also affected the investment income of the social security fund.
Second, the U.S. accelerated monetary policy tightening and interest rate hikes in 2022, leading to a global repatriation of funds and a liquidity crunch. The interest rate hike in the United States has also led to the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the renminbi, which has affected China's foreign exchange reserves and asset values. The U.S. interest rate hike has also triggered turmoil in the global bond market and rising interest rates, affecting China's bond market and the income of bond investments. The interest rate hike in the United States has also led to the decline and volatility of the global stock market, affecting China's stock market and the income of stock investment.
To sum up, the social security fund will suffer huge losses in 2022, not because of the decline in investment ability, but because of the impact of the global economy and market, especially the intervention and suppression of the United States. This also shows that the investment of the social security fund is risky, and we cannot blindly pursue high returns, but pay attention to the control and diversification of risks. At the same time, the investment of the social security fund is also cyclical, can not be a year of loss to negate the long-term performance of the social security fund, but to see the long-term income and stability of the social security fund. We believe that the social security fund, as a national-level investment institution, has a professional team and methods, which can realize the preservation and appreciation of the social security fund in the future investment, and provide solid support for the pension of the country and the people.