The Nasdaq rose more than 1%, Microsoft and Nvidia hit new highs, the China Concept Index rose 4% at one point, and long-term bond yields hovered at a two-month low

Markets await Tuesday's Nvidia earnings report and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November FOMC meeting, which could shed light on AI demand trends in 2024, and the Federal Reserve's November FOMC minutes, which could provide clues on the path of interest rates. Futures traders are betting on a 30% probability that the Fed will start cutting interest rates as early as March next year.

The U.S. stock and U.S. bond markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and both will close early on Friday. The Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales will provide important metrics to gauge the state of consumer spending in the United States.

Markets are also betting on a 70% chance that the ECB will start cutting interest rates as early as April next year, and that it could cut rates by 100 basis points next year. But ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Spain governor said it was absolutely too early to talk about rate cuts.

Richmond Fed President Barkin also said that now is not a good time to give forward guidance on interest rates, and that "maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period of time" will depend on changes in the US economic situation. The market consensus is that the Fed has completed raising interest rates.

The Bundesbank predicts that due to weakening external demand and high energy prices, the German economy, the "locomotive of Europe", will continue to shrink in the fourth quarter of this year, but market participants' expectations for economic prosperity tend to stabilize, and Germany is optimistic that Germany is expected to resume growth early next year.

The Dow closed up 200

Points, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100

Up more than 1%

, Microsoft, Nvidia and Nasdaq Tech Indices all hit new highs

On Monday, November 20, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and closed collectively near their daily highs. At midday, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 rose more than 1%, the Dow rose 200 points and rose above 35,000 integers, and Russell small-cap stocks rose above 1,800 points.

The technology, communication services and energy sectors were the top gainers in the broader S&P market, with Boeing and Intel as constituents boosting the Dow. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NASDAQ Technology Index), along with Microsoft and Nvidia, all hit intraday highs.

At the close, the Dow rose for the sixth day in seven trading days to its highest in three months since August 14, the S&P and Nasdaq both rose for five consecutive days, the S&P hit its highest since August 1 and consolidated out of its technical level, the Nasdaq hit its highest since July 31, and Russell small-cap stocks hit their highest in two months since September 20. The Nasdaq 100 rose above 16,000 points, hitting a new high in nearly two years since January 2022:

The S&P 500 closed up 33.36 points, or 0.74%, at 4,547.38. The Dow closed up 203.76 points, or 0.58%, at 35,151.04. The Nasdaq closed up 159.05 points, or 1.13%, at 14,284.53. The "fear index" VIX fell to 13 range, the lowest in two months since September 15.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology companies in the Nasdaq 100, rose 1.5% to its highest all-time close.

The Dow closed up 200 points to a three-month high, while the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 rose more than 1%

Some analysts say that in addition to the optimism that the Federal Reserve has ended raising interest rates, the light trading volume before the Thanksgiving holiday will also affect the market trend. November has historically been the best month for the S&P broader market, with both the Dow and S&P now heading for their best gains since October 2022.

Star tech stocks rose. Metaverse" Meta rose 1.5%, rising to a two-year high for three consecutive days, Amazon rose 0.7% to a 19-month high, Microsoft rose 2% to the highest all-time close, Apple rose nearly 1%, rose to a three-and-a-half-month high in five days, Netflix rose nearly 2% to a four-month high, Google A rose 0.7% to a three-week high, and Tesla fell 1.4% before rising 0.6%, not far from the four-week high set last week.

After poaching OpenAI's CEO, Microsoft rose 2% to its highest closing in history

Chip stocks rose, and many stocks hit new highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.5%, rising above 3,800 points to a three-and-a-half-month high since Aug. 1. Intel rose more than 2% to a 19-month high, AMD rose 0.8% to a five-month high, Nvidia rose more than 2% to record highs, and Broadcom and KLA Corporation also hit record highs.

On the eve of the earnings report, Nvidia rose more than 2% to hit the highest closing in history

AI concept stocks fell rapidly at the end of the session. C3.ai rose more than 7% and then fell more than 4%, missing a two-and-a-half-month high, SoundHound.ai off a two-month high, and closed up only 2% after BigBear.ai rose more than 8%, but Palantir Technologies rose 4% to a two-year high.

On the news, former CEO Sam Altman, who was ousted by OpenAI's board last Friday, will join Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. More than ninety percent of OpenAI employees, including the chief scientist, threatened to resign, demanding that the company rehire Altman and the board of directors step down. Many mainstream brokerages are optimistic about Microsoft's AI advantage, so it will expand. C3.ai will lay off employees. Customer relationship management software leader SAFTSE Salesforce invited researchers from OpenAI to join the AI team.

Brokerage Bernstein reiterated its "underweight" rating on Tesla, citing the slowdown in the growth of electric vehicles. According to the media, Apple will not be able to achieve its original goal of launching the mixed reality headset Vision Pro in January next year, and now plans to release it in March next year. SK hynix is reportedly discussing with NVIDIA a "disruptive" integration method for HBM4, which is directly integrated on the chip through 3D stacking.

Popular Chinese companies outperformed the U.S. stock market strongly. ETF KWEB rose 3.7%, CQQQ rose 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 3.6%, rising as high as 4% during the session and briefly breaking above 6,700 points, rising to a six-week high for the sixth day in seven days.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com, Baidu and Pinduoduo all rose about 3%. Among other stocks, Alibaba rose more than 1%, Tencent ADR rose 3%, and Station B rose more than 4%. NIO rose 5.6%, Xpeng rose 8.6%, and Li Auto rose 3.7%. The full gang rose by more than 15%. The co-founder of NIO previously spoke to reassure investors, saying that the company is "absolutely impossible" to fail. Xiaomi's ADR rose more than 2%, with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations in the third quarter, and single-quarter earnings hitting a new high in the past two years.

Bank stock indices have recently rebounded on hopes that the U.S. economy has avoided a recession. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange's KBW Bank Index (BKX) came close to erasing a 1% decline at the start of the session, hovering at its highest in three months since Aug. 14 and hitting its lowest in three years since September 2020 at the end of October. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banks Index (KRX) fell 0.2%, still hovering at its highest level since September 1, after hitting its lowest level since November 2020 on May 11. Citigroup rose 0.8% before turning lower and will cut more than 300 manager positions, or 10% of its managers.

Other stocks that have moved more include:

The "epidemic dividend stock" Zoom video communication rose 7% after hours, and its third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, and it raised its full-year revenue guidance. In addition to Nvidia, there were also earnings reports for retail stocks such as Best Buy, Kohl's Department Store, and Lloyd's Register on Tuesday.

Boeing rose 4.6% to its highest two-month since early September, and Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating to "buy", citing the continuation of the improved performance trend of Boeing aircraft deliveries.

Brazilian mining giant Vale rose more than 3% to a seven-month high, and Bank of America upgraded its rating to "buy" on the grounds that higher iron ore prices will boost free cash flow.

U.S. drugmaker Bristol-Myers Squibb fell nearly 4% to its biggest drop in three weeks and a three-and-a-half-year low since March 2020, while partner 2Seventy Bio fell 18% to an all-time low as the FDA was unable to approve its early-stage cancer therapy by the target date.

Bayer, a German pharmaceutical company, once fell more than 19% in Europe, the biggest drop in history, abandoned a large late-stage trial of an anticoagulant drug due to "lack of efficacy", and lost a case involving herbicides causing cancer, and a US court ordered the company to pay $1.56 billion to the plaintiffs.

In addition, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF rose 11% to its highest in two and a half months since Sept. 1, while the country's energy company YPF rose 40% to its biggest gain since 2009. Milley, known as the "Argentine Trump," won the presidential election, welcomed his budget cuts and supported the privatization of YPF companies, the abolition of the central bank and the shift of the national currency to the dollar to curb triple-digit inflation.

Cooling inflation led investors to continue to assess the outlook for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates next year, with only the German and British stock indexes closing in the red, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closing up 0.1% to its highest since September 20, led by the oil and gas sector rising more than 1%, and the Bank of Italy stock index falling 1.2%.

20

The solid bidding of long-term U.S. bonds led to a decline in long-term bond yields, 10

The yield on the U.S. Treasury note hovered at a two-month low

The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose 2 basis points at one point to 4.93%, essentially recovering losses since last Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year base bond turned lower in the U.S. stock market, falling as deep as 3 basis points to 4.41%, trading at its lowest level since September 21.

Earlier, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year Treasury bonds, and the bid rate was 4.780%, off from the record high of 5.245% a month ago, and the bid multiple of 2.58 was basically the same as the previous 2.59, which was called a strong bid, so it pulled down the yield of long-term bonds.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hovered at a two-month low

European bond yields also retreated, with the yield on the 10-year German bond, the eurozone's benchmark, rising 2 basis points to 2.61% in late trading, after falling to a two-and-a-half-month low of 2.55% on Friday, and the two-year yield rising 6 basis points to 3%, falling below 2.92% last week to a five-month low.

Rating agency Moody's upgraded Italy's credit outlook from negative to stable last week and upgraded Portugal's long-term issuer rating by two notches, narrowing the spread between the yields of Europe's more indebted peripheral countries and Germany's base bonds, according to analysts.

Oil prices rose 3% intraday

, close to recovering losses since last Wednesday, U.S. oil 11

March 15

It rose above 78 for the first time in Japan

Dollar

International oil prices continue to be boosted by the expectation that OPEC+ may announce a deepening of production cuts at the end of this week. WTI December futures closed up $1.71, or 2.25%, at $77.60 a barrel. Brent January futures closed up $1.71, or 2.12%, at $82.32 a barrel.

The more actively traded U.S. oil WTI futures for January next year rose as high as $2.42 or 3.2%, rising above $78 for the first time since November 15, and Brent oil rose as high as $2.32 or 2.9%, trying to force up to $83, all close to recovering the losses since last Wednesday.

Oil prices rose 3% intraday, close to recovering losses since last Wednesday

Last week, U.S. oil briefly fell into a technical bear market from the highest level in more than a year reached in September, and Brent oil was also hovering on the edge of a bear market, although oil prices rose 4% on Friday, but they fell for four consecutive weeks, and the futures structure turned into "contango", suggesting that there is sufficient supply in the short term.

TTF Dutch natural gas futures, the European benchmark, rose 1.7% to remain below the 50 euro/MWh integer level, but recovered more than half of the losses since Wednesday and off a one-month low. ICE UK futures fell about 2%, while US natural gas fell 3% at one point near a six-week low.

The dollar was the lowest in two and a half months, and the yen rose 1%

Forced 148

, both onshore and offshore renminbi rose above 7.17

Yuan to the highest in more than three months

Markets turned to the Fed to cut interest rates, with the DXY, a basket of six major currencies, falling as much as 0.5% to its lowest level in two and a half months since 103.40 and Sept. 1. The U.S. dollar fell nearly 2% last week, its biggest weekly drop since July.

The U.S. dollar fell below the 200-day moving average technical level to its lowest level in more than two months

EUR/USD rose and held above 1.09, the highest in three months since mid-August. GBP/USD rose above a two-month high of 1.25 to mid-September. The yen rose to the 148 mark against the dollar or rose 1% to a seven-week high.

Both the onshore and offshore renminbi rose above 7.17 yuan and rose more than 500 points intraday. The onshore yuan closed at 7.1655 against the dollar, up 480 points from the previous trading day, and the offshore yuan rose as high as nearly 580 points, to the highest in three and a half months since early August.

Securities Daily said that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar regained the "7.2" mark, and experts said that good economic fundamentals are the basis for the strength of the RMB. The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that the RMB exchange rate broke five levels in a day, driven by short-term optimism, and it is not ruled out that the exchange rate will rise to the 7.1 range.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies were mixed. Bitcoin, the largest by market capitalization, rose 1.5% to break above $37,500, close to last week's highest since April. Ethereum, the second-largest Ethereum, rose more than 2% to $2,000 and rose above $2,100 at the beginning of the month to a seven-month high.

Gold's intraday losses narrowed to 1980

U.S. dollar, London copper rose nearly 2%

to the highest in two months, London aluminum rose more than 1.7%

COMEX gold futures for December delivery closed down 0.2% at $1,980.30 an ounce. COMEX silver futures for December delivery closed down 1% at $23.614 an ounce, halving losses from the start of the session.

Before the release of the Fed minutes, spot gold narrowed its intraday decline in U.S. stocks and pushed up to $1,980 as the dollar fell and rose to a two-week high of $1,990 last week, and rose more than 2% for the week.

Gold's intraday losses narrowed to $1,980

A weaker US dollar and a boost in demand outlook from China's policies sent industrial base metals higher in London:

The economic bellwether "Dr. Copper" rose nearly 2% and rose above $8,400, the highest in two months since mid-September. London aluminum rose 1.7%, recovering losses since November 9. Both London zinc and London tin edged higher and came off their one-week lows. London nickel is pushing $17,000, still hovering at a two-and-a-half-year low since April 2021. Only London lead fell 0.8%, and rose above $2,300 intraday to the highest since May last year.