OpenAI is facing a severe talent crisis, and the U.S. bond bidding data is disturbed again What to watch tonight

Finance Associated Press, November 20 (edited by Shi Zhengcheng) With OpenAI's "Gong Dou" drama giving a preliminary ending, the impact of this incident is about to be tested by the market. Against the backdrop of Microsoft's steady stock price, the three major U.S. pre-market indexes were flat on Monday.

Shortly after the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, OpenAI's board of directors announced the dismissal of Sam Altman as CEO, a move that also sparked protests against the resignation of President Brockman. Just before the market opened on Monday, OpenAI announced the appointment of Emmett Shear, the former CEO of game streaming platform Twitch, as interim CEO. Microsoft, on the other hand, announced that Altman and Brockman have joined to lead a new "advanced AI research team".

Microsoft CEO Nadella also publicly stated that the company remains committed to working with OpenAI and is confident in the company's product roadmap.

Interestingly, against the backdrop of what seems to be an end to the situation, there are still undercurrents surging beneath the water's surface.

Microsoft made it clear in an official statement that it welcomes Altman, Brockman, and their "colleagues" to join us. At about 18 o'clock this afternoon Beijing time, including OpenAI's chief technology officer Mira Murati, chief operating officer Brad Lightcap, and chief strategy officer Jason Kwon, who were pulled out to temporarily replace Ultraman, collectively issued a statement saying that OpenAI without employees is nothing, and Ultraman also enthusiastically praised everyone. In recent days, Ultraman's tweet has also received collective support from OpenAI employees.

Judging from the stock price performance, Microsoft, which just refreshed a record high last week, is expected to continue to hit a record high on Monday with the official announcement of Ultraman's joining.

But there are still many questions that need time to be answered: Microsoft's statement clearly says that it is "unfamiliar" with OpenAI's new team, will it continue to support various resources at the previous level of tens of billions of dollars? How many of OpenAI's old departments will Ultraman bring to Microsoft, and what impact will it have on the products of the two companies?

(Microsoft Daily Chart, TradingView)

For U.S. stocks and various dollar-related assets, there is also a hidden danger of declining market liquidity this week. Since the United States will enter the Thanksgiving holiday in the last two days of this week (the U.S. stock market is closed on Thursday and the market is closed early on Friday), the volatility of the market will also be amplified in the event of a shock event.

For tonight, the market will also be closely watching the results of the auction of the US Treasury 20-year Treasury bond. Although the bond issuance scale of $16 billion is not as large as the 30-year Treasury bond at the beginning of the month, the impact of bad news should not be underestimated in this week of "liquidity vacuum".

It is worth mentioning that the decline of the US dollar against major global currencies continued on Monday. At present, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March next year to about 30%, and since most of the Fed officials have entered holiday mode this week, the minutes of the Fed meeting on Tuesday (early Wednesday morning, Beijing time) have become one of the few important materials in these two days.

Other news

On Monday, local time, the German pharmaceutical and chemical giant Bayer plunged 19% at the open, the largest one-day decline in history.

On the news side, Bayer said on Sunday that it had ended late-stage trials of Asundexian due to the lack of efficacy of Asundexian, a new anticoagulant drug (blood thinner) to prevent stroke. In addition, a jury in Missouri, USA, ruled on Friday that Bayer must pay US$1.56 billion (about 11 billion yuan) in compensation to the four plaintiffs because of the "herbicide cancer case".

[Nuclear reactor concept stock NuScale is expected to rebound for two consecutive days]

NuScale, a maker of small modular nuclear reactors, rose more than 7% in premarket trading on Monday, following an 8.23% gain on Friday. In the past two weeks, the company has fallen sharply after canceling plans for the Idaho power plant and being sniped by short-seller Iceberg Research. Short-sellers have warned that investors should be concerned about how quickly companies are burning cash, and have signaled that companies are at risk of bankruptcy after their flagship nuclear reactor project is canceled.

Other events/data to watch tonight

November 20th

23:00 Conference Board Leading Indicator MoM (Oct).

November 21

01:00 Richmond Fed President Barkin is interviewed by the media

02:45 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks

(Finance Associated Press Shi Zhengcheng)