The "Chinese ambition" of Japanese cars: regain the right to speak in the market, and how big is the winning rate
Tencent News "High Beam" Xie Wan
In 2023, the differentiation of the automobile market will intensify, some people will attack fiercely, some people will lose, and the Guangzhou Auto Show, the finale of the year, will also become the epitome of the current competition pattern in the automobile industry.
Similar to the current situation of the auto market, traditional mainstream car companies are still the main force participating in this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, and the lineup of new energy vehicles has not surpassed that of fuel vehicles. According to official information, the total number of cars on display at the Guangzhou Auto Show is 1,132, including 59 world premieres, including 8 multinational companies, 20 concept cars, including 9 international brand cars, and 469 new energy vehicles, including 119 foreign brand cars.
Judging from the pre-exhibition information, in terms of first models and new energy vehicles, the number and volume of Chinese brands far exceed that of foreign brands. Tencent News "High Beam" learned that traditional independent brands such as BYD, Chery, Great Wall, and Geely will bring a variety of new energy vehicles, while mainstream foreign brands such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are fuel and new energy in parallel, and new forces such as Ideal, Xiaopeng, and Leap will bring their latest products.
As the last international auto show of the year, domestic and foreign car companies aiming at intelligence and electrification will focus on showing their latest transformation achievements, but the increasingly high-end independent brand car companies and the mainstream joint venture car companies that are gradually losing their voice are bound to usher in another head-on confrontation in the hall.
Roll out to new heights! Domestic new energy fierce battle pure electric cars and MPVs
Looking back on the past year, Chinese brand new energy vehicles have formed an overwhelming advantage in terms of technology, new products and sales, and during this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, traditional independent brands and new forces will also come up with their own blockbuster products to launch the final sprint before the end of the year.
Judging from the new car news before the exhibition, Geely may bring Galaxy E8 and Zeekrypton 007, and the two cars will attack to seize the market share of high-end pure electric vehicles; the first sedan Zhijie S7 of Huawei's smart car, which has just opened pre-sale in November, and the AVATR 12 that will be launched on November 10 will be unveiled at the Guangzhou Auto Show, both cars are equipped with Huawei's high-end assisted driving functions, which brings a lot of pressure to cars of the same level.
(Geely Galaxy E8)
(ZEEKR 007)
(AVATR 12)
In terms of pure electric SUVs, BYD will bring the "most beautiful SUV" Song L model, which is intended to enrich the product matrix of the SUV segment through new products and seize a certain market share;
Since 2023, the competition in the pure electric car market has gradually become white-hot, although BYD and Tesla still occupy half of the market, but as new forces and new brands of traditional car companies compete to launch innovative models, the market share of mid-to-high-end pure electric cars in 2024 will be divided by many people, and the phenomenon of sales concentration to the head may be weakened.
In addition, the hottest market segment of this auto show must belong to the pure electric MPV market, when the new and old forces will bring blockbuster strategic models at the same time, which also indicates that the relatively stable MPV market will roll out to a new height in 2024, and ZEEKR 009 and Denza D9 will usher in new competitive pressure.
Among the new power companies, the ideal MEGA and Xpeng X9 are undoubtedly the two most popular models. As the first all-electric model of Li Auto, the design style of the Li MEGA similar to the bullet train has been controversial, and the Xpeng X9 is officially called the "Starship of Tomorrow", the world's first MPV with rear-wheel steering, and the designers hope to attract younger users through avant-garde design.
(Ideal MEGA)
(小鹏X9)
Volvo's first pure electric MPV model EM90 will be unveiled among the traditional forces, the car is positioned as a medium and large MPV, and the official guide price is 818,000 yuan; in addition, the GAC Trumpchi plug-in hybrid MPV model Trumpchi E8 will officially announce the pre-sale price at the Guangzhou Auto Show, and is tentatively scheduled to start delivery to users in early December.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, told Tencent News "High Beam" that the vitality of auto shows is declining in recent years, with new fuel vehicles shrinking sharply, and the number of new energy vehicles is large but there are few innovation breakthroughs.
In October this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 880,000 units, the retail share of mainstream independent brand new energy vehicles was 72.9%, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 60.4%, and the share of new forces was 15.8%, and the sales of new power car companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and Li were generally good year-on-year and month-on-month.
It's too early to be bearish? Joint venture car companies want to use classic models to save sales
As the market share of traditional fuel vehicles continues to shrink, the once thriving joint venture brands are gradually being replaced by Chinese independent brands, and Dongfeng Renault, Changan Suzuki and GAC Mitsubishi have lost the Chinese market one after another.
Judging from the lineup of exhibitors at the Guangzhou Auto Show, it is clear that mainstream joint venture brands cannot ignore the changes in the market structure, with Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, etc. all bringing new models in an attempt to recover the declining brand voice.
During the auto show, FAW Toyota's all-new Prado and GAC Toyota's all-new generation Camry will make their debuts, and Beijing Hyundai will also bring a new generation of Sonata, which also means that the classic models of the three joint venture car companies will take on the important task of boosting brand sales.
(New Prado)
(A new generation of Camry)
The first domestically produced Toyota Prado has been a word-of-mouth model since it rolled off the assembly line in 2003, but after the discontinuation of production in 2020, the market share was quickly snatched by the hardcore SUVs of Chinese brands.
In the B-class sedan market, Camry and Sonata are also enduring models, but in recent years, under the strong attack of new forces and traditional independent brand new energy vehicles, the former sales champion is also unable to resist the pressure and is unable to increase brand sales.
According to the data, Toyota's new car sales in the Chinese market in 2022 decreased by 0.2% from 2021 to 1,940,600 units, which was the first decline in Toyota's sales in the Chinese market in 10 years, and in the same year, Hyundai Group sold only 343,000 units in the Chinese market, down 82% from the peak of 1.8 million units in 2016.
From the perspective of the overall passenger car market, the market share of joint venture brands continued to decline. In the first half of this year, the market share of Chinese brands has climbed from 35.7% in 2020 to 49.5%, according to the China Passenger Car Association. On the contrary, the market share of mainstream joint venture brands fell to 35.7% from 51.1% in 2020. Among them, Dongfeng Honda's sales were 227,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32.80%, becoming the largest decline among Japanese joint venture brands.
However, in response to the "bearish joint venture" remarks, Dong Changzheng, senior executive deputy general manager of Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd., recently said that the joint venture company is a 50:50 share ratio, and the failure of the joint venture is by no means a prospect that China's auto industry should see, on the contrary, we should help the survival and development of these joint ventures.
Dong Changzheng believes that now the electric vehicle market is a mature market, in the face of a mature market and fuel vehicles and high energy-saving hybrid vehicles based on the mainstream car market, the policy should seek a balance, fair and reasonable treatment, so as to achieve the purpose of stabilizing the consumption of fuel vehicles, and then to make the entire automobile industry sustainable and healthy development.
In Cui Dongshu's view, the domestic market sales of joint venture car companies have dropped significantly recently, and with the electrification and intelligent transformation of the passenger car industry, the original industrial advantages of joint ventures have weakened, and they are facing new issues of high-quality development in the new era. The international cost advantage and localization improvement ability of Chinese joint ventures are already very strong, and they can effectively export products to some overseas markets.
In the face of market competition, joint venture automakers are also re-examining their Chinese market strategies, accelerating the deployment of new energy vehicles on the one hand, and trying to open up the global market with Chinese technology on the other hand.
Recently, Dongfeng Honda released a new pure electric brand Lingxi, which is also the first new energy joint venture independent brand among mainstream joint venture car companies, and the first product will be mass-produced next year. In addition, Nissan announced that it will export new energy vehicles from China in 2025, and initially plans to launch four models with a sales target of 100,000 units.
During this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, Guangzhou Honda's new pure electric models, as well as a number of new electrified products, including the all-new Accord e:PHEV and the new generation Haoying e:PHEV, Kia pure electric SUV Kia EV5 may be launched, and the new Ford Electric Horse will also be unveiled.
According to Wang Xia, chairman of the Automotive Industry Committee of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and president of the China Chamber of International Commerce, although the market share of joint venture car companies has been squeezed and has fallen below 50%, it is still too early to be bearish on joint venture car companies. If we change our concepts, adjust our strategies, and change our play, joint ventures can still make great achievements.