An auto show makes fuel vehicles "resurgence": these new cars crush new energy German and Japanese sacrifices killer features
At the 2023 Guangzhou Auto Show, which has opened, among the more than 1,100 exhibit cars, the proportion of new energy vehicles is actually just over 4%. However, in the voice of "far ahead", who bought the fuel vehicle? In other words, in which sectors can the fuel vehicle still provide superior product strength? We just take advantage of the Guangzhou Auto Show to find out.
Will the rich still buy a fuel car?
In fact, according to the sales statistics of the China Automobile Association in the first three quarters of this year, the new energy vehicle market segment of 25-300,000 yuan has seen a year-on-year decline. Of course, fuel vehicles at this price range are also on a downward trend. However, in terms of the volume gap between the two, fuel vehicles are almost 2.5 times that of new energy vehicles. In other words, the sales of fuel vehicles in this price range account for more than 7%, which is not only a value significantly higher than the penetration rate of new energy vehicles at this stage. At the same time, the sluggish growth of new energy vehicles also shows that it is difficult to catch up with the gap.
Let's talk about the new cars launched at the Guangzhou Auto Show, and the potential fuel vehicles that may make a fuss around the price range of 25-300,000 yuan include the new Toyota Camry, Nissan Pathfinder, Ford Ranger and so on. They are either the continuation of the brand's classic big IP, or the technology decentralization of its own luxury brand, or the opening of the market through niche personality. In short, in the relatively mid-to-high-end market, the competitiveness of fuel vehicles is still strong. In addition to a large number of classic inventories, the core internal combustion engine technology, as well as hybrid technology and powerful functional attributes, are all products worth relying on. And this state of counterattack may also have a tendency to spread to the higher-end market.
Although the price is above 350,000 yuan, whether it is a fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle, it is basically a state of general rise. However, on the one hand, in the price range of 30-400,000 yuan, whether it is volume or growth rate, new energy vehicles have actually grasped the temporary market initiative compared with fuel vehicles. As for the price of more than 400,000 yuan, combined with the performance in the first three quarters of this year, fuel vehicles still occupy an absolute advantage. Of course, we cannot ignore the growth rate of new energy vehicles in this sector.
However, at this Guangzhou Auto Show, fuel vehicles in the market of about 350,000 yuan, or even higher prices, also ushered in a booster. More representative, there is a new generation of domestic Prado, as well as a new generation of BMW 5 Series and the new Mercedes-Benz long wheelbase E-class and so on. The two first-line luxury brand medium and large sedans are undoubtedly benchmark works that can cover the price of 500,000 yuan. More importantly, as fuel vehicles, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are also strengthening a new generation of intelligent cockpit technology. As for SUVs, the company aims to regain the market from new energy vehicles. The fuel-powered SUV is a combination of big IP + tool car attributes. Whether it's the Prado, or the potential Ford Bronco, it's basically this way of playing.
Really save money or buy a fuel car?
Different from the excitement of the mid-to-high-end market, this Guangzhou Auto Show, there are not many voices about economic models within 100,000 yuan. Not to mention that fuel vehicles basically have no action in this area, and in terms of new energy, there are only a few products such as Wuling Starlight, which can barely match the number. Considering the development momentum of small and micro pure electric scooters that have been booming in the past few years, it is difficult to say that fuel vehicles have given up the economic product line of less than 100,000 yuan and turned to the middle and high-end?
The answer may be the opposite, in the market of less than 100,000 yuan, new energy vehicles are basically powerless to shake the market pattern of fuel vehicles. According to the statistics of the first three quarters of this year, fuel vehicles accounted for more than three-quarters of the domestic car sales of less than 100,000 yuan. Moreover, the sales performance of new energy vehicles within 80,000 yuan is actually a year-on-year plunge of nearly one-third. Since the chasing soldiers are not active, it is no wonder that fuel vehicles do not need to exert too much force in this market.
However, this data seems to be at odds with our perception. From a micro point of view, according to the retail sales data released by the Passenger Association, in the past October, whether it is BYD Seagull, Wuling Binguo, Hongguang MINIEV, Changan Lumin, etc., they are all among the top products in car sales. But the "problem" is also on this list. Also in the forefront of sales, there are Nissan Sylphy, Volkswagen Lavida, Toyota Corolla, and even the Chinese brand Changan Yidong series, Geely Xingrui and other fuel body shadows.
More importantly, new energy vehicles lack "second echelon" products in the market of less than 100,000 yuan. To put it simply, sales are mostly siphoned by the classic products mentioned earlier. If you take the monthly sales of 10,000 units as a reference, hovering near this red line, and the terminal price is less than 100,000 yuan of fuel vehicles, at least Hyundai Elantra, Chevrolet Cruze, Volkswagen Bora, Mazda3 Ankesaila, Toyota Leiling, Geely Emgrand and so on. In such a comparison, it is no wonder that fuel vehicles can continue to occupy the absolute majority of the new car market within 100,000 yuan.
In fact, even if the price range is expanded to 10-150,000 yuan, fuel vehicles can still occupy the absolute majority. According to the sales statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in the first three quarters, fuel vehicles at this price can still account for about 68% of the total sales. Of course, this proportion is basically in line with the proportion of total sales of new energy vehicles in the same period. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicles in this price range has exceeded one-third. Combined with the slight decline in the total number of fuel vehicles in the same price range, the gap between the two will actually gradually narrow.
It's just that there is fierce competition of 10-150,000 yuan in front, and it seems that fuel vehicles can be "quiet" in the market within 100,000 yuan for a period of time. The reason for this is that we can easily find that there are basically no small and micro car masterpieces within 100,000 yuan of fuel vehicles. Instead, it has shifted from the main compact car, which was commonly priced at more than 100,000 yuan in the past, to the market of less than 100,000 yuan. As a result, classic models such as Corolla and Lavida basically present a situation of crushing new energy vehicles at the same price, whether in terms of product reputation, practical space, driving experience, etc.
Write at the end
In fact, before the Guangzhou Auto Show, domestic new energy vehicles have launched a "southern expedition" to the basic market of 10-200,000 yuan for fuel vehicles. In the face of plug-in hybrid and range extender step by step, it seems that the position of fuel vehicles within 150,000 yuan is also trembling. However, with the help of the voice of the Guangzhou Auto Show, we can also clearly find that fuel vehicles are actually launching the "Northern Expedition" in the mid-to-high-end market with great fanfare. It's just that in another inconspicuous dark line, in the market of less than 100,000 yuan, fuel vehicles still show a crushing situation for new energy vehicles.