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Human longevity is a complex issue that is influenced by many factors, some people are able to live a long and healthy life, while others die young.
So how many of the 1,000 people will live past the age of 70? You may find this question difficult to answer because everyone's situation is different.
But there is a scientific way to help us estimate a rough answer, and that is to use the demographic life table.
The life table is a tool that reflects the mortality rate and longevity of a population, which can calculate the average life expectancy and survival probability of a population according to the risk of death at different ages.
Through the life table, we can know how many of the 1,000 people will live past the age of 70, or even 80, 90 or 100 years old. So what's the answer? Let's take a look.
What is the global average life expectancy?
According to the World Health Organization, in 2019, the average life expectancy of the global population was 72.6 years, with 75.6 years for women and 69.8 years for men.
This figure is 6.1 years higher than the 66.5 years in 2000, indicating that human life expectancy is increasing.
However, the global average life expectancy does not reflect the specific situation of each country and region, because the life expectancy of people varies greatly from country to country.
For example, in 2019, Japan's average life expectancy was 84.6 years, the highest in the world, while the Central African Republic ranked last in the world with an average life expectancy of 53.3 years.
Therefore, to answer the question of how many out of 1,000 people will survive the age of 70, we also need to look at the data of specific countries and regions.
What is the average life expectancy in China?
As the world's most populous country, what is the average life expectancy in China?
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average life expectancy of Chinese residents in 2020 was 77.3 years, with 79.9 years for women and 74.8 years for men.
This figure is 2.5 years higher than the 74.8 years in 2010, indicating that China's life expectancy level is also rising.
However, the average life expectancy in China is still lower than that of some developed countries, such as Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc., and is also lower than the world average.
This shows that China still has a lot of room for improvement and needs to further improve the health and quality of life of its people.
So based on the average life expectancy in China, can we estimate that how many out of 1,000 people will live past the age of 70?
How many of the 1,000 people will live past the age of 70?
To answer this question, we need to use the life table. The life table is a tool to calculate the survival probability and average life expectancy of a certain population based on the mortality rate of different age groups.
There are many types of life tables, and one of the most commonly used is the life expectancy table.
It is a table that calculates the life expectancy and survival probability of a population of a certain age based on the mortality rate of a specific period.
For example, according to the 2019 life expectancy table in China, it can be known that the life expectancy at birth is 77.3 years.
That is, if a person spends his life at the 2019 mortality rate, his average life expectancy is 77.3 years.
It can also be known that the life expectancy at the age of 60 is 21.6 years, which means that if a person has lived to the age of 60, he can live another 21.6 years, which is 81.6 years.
Then according to this table, it can be calculated how many out of 1,000 people will live past the age of 70. The specific method is to find the probability of survival at the age of 70, that is, the probability of how long a person will live if he has lived to the age of 70.
According to the table, it can be seen that the probability of survival at the age of 70 is 0.857, which means that if a person has lived to the age of 70, he still has an 85.7% chance of living again.
So how many of the 1,000 people will live past the age of 70? The answer is 1000 times 0.857, which equals 857 people.
In other words, out of 1,000 people, 857 people will live past the age of 70, and 143 people will not live past the age of 70. Isn't that a surprise to you?
epilogue
Life expectancy is a complex issue that is affected by a variety of factors, and the life expectancy of people varies greatly from country to country.
By using a life table, we can estimate the average life expectancy and survival probability of a population to answer interesting questions such as how many out of 1,000 people will live past the age of 70.
Of course, the life table is only a statistical tool, it cannot predict the specific lifespan of each person, nor can it determine the quality of life of each person.
Each person's lifespan is determined by a combination of factors such as their genes, environment, lifestyle, etc., and longevity is not the only measure of happiness.
We should pay attention to our health, maintain good habits, enjoy every day, and let our life be not only long, but also beautiful.
What do you think? Feel free to leave a message in the comment area.