With less than two months to go until the end of 2023, the media can't wait to pay attention to 2024.
Recently, it has been revealed by the media that the new domestic EV manufacturers have passed on their sales forecasts for 2024 to the supply side. Among them, Li Auto expects to sell more than 800,000 units in 2024, NIO is expected to sell more than 230,000 units, and Xpeng Motors is expected to sell more than 280,000 units.
Wei Xiaoli, the top three in the savage growth stage of the new forces, after entering 2023, they will gradually divide the superior, which also determines that the three companies have a significant gap in next year's sales plan, and it is unknown whether they can complete their respective plans next year.
Ideal: Doubling sales targets next year
No matter in terms of market volume, sales performance, and financial situation, the ideal is the most "ideal" of the three.
At the beginning of this year, Li Auto's expected sales target was 300,000 units, but in the middle of the year, Ideal readjusted its expected target to the supply chain and sprinted to 380,000 units for the whole year. With only the three models of the L series, Ideal has delivered a total of 284647 new cars as of October 31, which means that it will definitely be able to exceed the sales target at the beginning of the year. In the next two months, Li Xiang has made it clear that he wants to challenge 50,000 units per month. Judging by the current momentum of Ideal, it is very likely that it will eventually achieve annual sales of 380,000 units.
Then, if next year's sales are expected to be 800,000 units, it means that it will double on the basis of this year, and about 67,000 units will need to be delivered on average every month. This goal is very impressive even if it is placed in traditional joint venture car companies. Li Auto wants to challenge this goal, and it doesn't seem too difficult.
Next year, in addition to the L series and MEGA, Li Auto will also launch four new models, namely the extended range model L6 and three pure electric models. As the model with the smallest number in the L series, the L6 will be relatively lower in price, and it is very likely to become a hit, and it is definitely an impulse model. The three pure electric models have MEGA in front, and as long as the MEGA can be a hit, the next pure electric model can also get good sales.
Li Xiang himself said that if he still averaged 50,000 vehicles a month next year, he would have to look for a job. Although it is a joke, it also shows that the CEO is still very confident about next year. If you want to talk about variables, one is to see how long users will get tired of the ideal L series of nesting doll design, since the fourth quarter of this year, the ideal actually has a relatively large terminal discount, when the need to use discounts to stimulate users to buy, it may mean that the existing L series model sales are gradually approaching the bottleneck. The second is to see whether the ideal can also be smooth sailing in the pure electric market.
Xpeng: The goal is pragmatic, and the action also needs to be pragmatic
After the completion of the organizational structure adjustment, the joining of Wang Fengying, and the listing of Xpeng G6, Xpeng Motors has come out of the trough.
At the beginning of this year, Xpeng set a sales target of 200,000 units, but as of the end of October, Xpeng sold only 101,000 units, only 50% of the target. Although Xpeng's monthly sales have continued to rise in recent months, and its monthly sales have exceeded 20,000 units in October, the final results of the year are likely to be fixed at around 14-150,000 units. If the company plans to achieve 280,000 units next year, it will also mean that sales will need to double to an average of 23,000 units per month.
Xpeng has several advantages at present: first, it has taken the lead in completing the reform of the organizational structure and developing in the direction of a more professional automobile company; Second, next year's products can achieve full 800V, with a certain leading edge; the third is to take the lead in using integrated die-casting technology, so that the cost can be reduced; Fourth, there is a certain leading edge in intelligent driving, and there is a high probability that the concept of intelligent driving will explode next year.
Next year, Xpeng is expected to have two SUVs, two sedans and one crossover SUV, a total of 5 new cars on the market, from the perspective of the product matrix, it can also be said that the lineup is strong.
Therefore, although from the perspective of the annual sales target, Xiaopeng pursues doubling as ideally, but Xiaopeng only needs monthly sales to maintain the current momentum, so it is still more pragmatic. If you want to maintain the momentum of monthly sales of more than 20,000 units, at least one of the new cars next year must be able to reach the same explosive level as the Xpeng G6. Theoretically, it's not a big problem, but I'm most afraid that Xiaopeng will make the wrong move.
For example, the price of new cars is too high, or the marketing overturns again, these situations are not uncommon in Xiaopeng. The cold of Xpeng G9 and the hot sales of Xpeng G6 are a good example, and the "AEB dispute" between Xpeng and Huawei has once again made Xpeng overturn in the field of public opinion, indicating that there are still many unstable factors in each link from R&D to production to marketing. Xiaopeng is like a young offspring, you are always worried that he will drop the chain at a critical moment.
What Xiaopeng really needs to do now is to build and sell good cars in a down-to-earth manner, do less tricks, and eliminate all unnecessary interference factors.
NIO: It's the most dangerous time again
Now NIO is obviously not confident about next year.
At the beginning of this year, NIO set a sales target of doubling from last year's sales to 245,000 units. However, the cumulative sales of NIO from January to October this year were 126,067 units, just reaching the results of last year, only 50% of this year's target was completed, and in the second half of the year, relying on the disguised price reduction of ES6, NIO broke through the 20,000 monthly sales mark in July, but the good times did not last long, and NIO's monthly sales began to decline month-on-month from August. It is optimistically estimated that the final result of this year will be fixed at around 15-160,000 units.
In this context, NIO's plan for next year is to achieve the target of 230,000 units, which is actually slightly lower than this year's target, with an average monthly sales volume of about 19,000 units. But even so, NIO's outlook is still not optimistic.
Among the three Wei Xiaoli, Weilai has the largest number of model matrix, a total of 8 models, but the embarrassment is that none of them can be played except for ES6. NIO officially revealed that there are no new car plans for next year, with the existing 8 models, how can we achieve the goal of 230,000 units in the face of next year's 800V + intelligent driving opponents? The sub-brand Alps, which will debut in the second half of next year, may be a model that can be massed, but it was launched too late, and it is difficult to say how much it will help NIO's annual sales.
In the first half of this year, Weilai sold 54,600 vehicles, with an income of 16.4 billion and a net loss of 10.8 billion, and the gross profit margin of Weilai in the second quarter has dropped to 1%. This means that for every car sold in the first half of 2023, NIO will lose nearly 200,000. The ideal next door has made great strides towards profitability, and although Xpeng loses 120,000 yuan per car sold, it is not as much as NIO. Even if NIO has the heart to fight a price war next year, I am afraid that it will be more than enough and not enough.
Recently, NIO has officially announced a 10% layoff of employees and plans to merge and lay off some functional departments, which means that NIO is indeed in trouble. At this time last year, Xpeng began a large-scale adjustment, and this year it is NIO. At this time, NIO may vaguely return to the darkest moment in 2019.
Write at the end:
The era of Wei Xiaoli going hand in hand has passed, and the new forces of the three families are moving in different directions. From their respective sales plans for 2024, it can be seen that the ideal is making great progress and has thrown off a number of new car-making forces; After being beaten by the market, Xiaopeng re-embarked on pragmatism; NIO has entered the most difficult moment since 2019 and has begun to adjust, but its own predicament, financial situation and market competition may not give NIO much time. (Text/Youshi Auto Old Cannon)
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