At present, the tropical disturbance of the ocean 95W has intensified into Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua" has become more and more obvious! A few forecasters pointed out that due to the abundant energy of the surrounding sea water in the sea area where the tropical disturbance 95W is located, the sea water temperature is basically maintained between 31 °C, and there is a steady stream of pelagic water vapor support, the wind shear environment is good, and then it will quickly absorb water vapor and develop, and it is expected that around November 14, the 17th typhoon "Geralhua" will be born on the ocean surface of the northwest Pacific Ocean, and then move westward, gradually approaching the ocean east of the Philippines. At this point, this also means that the "ill-fated" tropical clouds in the ocean will gradually strengthen in the future, and the long-watched Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua" may really come!
It has been said before that the tropical clouds in the ocean have been intermittently for almost a month from continuous withdrawal to compilation, and now the tropical disturbance 95W is finally a bit of a convergence trend. This is because the high sea surface temperature, abundant monsoon water vapor and good low-level inflow conditions over the southwest ocean of Pohnpei Island in the northwest Pacific will provide favorable conditions for the further development and intensification of the tropical disturbance 95W, and a new typhoon will not be ruled out subsequently. Therefore, the appearance of Typhoon No. 17 "Geralwar" this year may not be far off.
In addition, judging from the supercomputer ensemble forecast, the typhoon prediction line on the southwest ocean of Pohnpei Island in the northwest Pacific Ocean has appeared densely, and a large number of prediction lines are entangled like a mess, and even some typhoon prediction lines even point out that the intensity of this future Typhoon No. 17 Gelahua may be less than 950 hPa. At this point, this also means that not only is a new typhoon brewing, but the intensity of this Typhoon No. 17 "Jelahua" may not be weak. As for the path of Typhoon No. 17 "Geralhua", according to the current predicted path, Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua", which is currently in the pipeline, will move westward, and whether it will enter the South China Sea of the mainland remains to be further observed.
Of course, it will take some time for a typhoon to develop. According to the current forecast data, it will take about 3 days for this tropical disturbance of 95W low pressure circulation to reach a maximum average wind force of 8 or above near the center, and it may take 5 days if it is slow. Therefore, it remains to be seen where Typhoon No. 17 "Gelahua" will eventually go.