Written by Qian Yaguang
Edited by Tu Yanping
Design / Zhao Haoran
来源 / Automotive News Europe
作者 / Nick Gibbs
Despite a significant decline in sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in Germany, sales in Europe increased in 2023. After the removal of purchase incentives in Germany, the demand for plug-in hybrid vehicles in Germany fell sharply.
According to data from market analysis firm Dataforce (see table below), as of August this year, the segment's cumulative sales were ranked first by the Ford Kuga with 35,541 units sold, followed by the Volvo XC60 with 26,470 units sold, and the third place was the Lynk & Co 01 with 19,658 units.
Sales of all three plug-in hybrid models increased significantly compared to the same period of the previous year.
However, while cumulative sales of plug-in hybrids in the European market increased by 4.4% to 635,487 units in the first eight months of this year, market share has fallen to 7.4% from 8.4% in the same period in 2022 as they have failed to keep pace with the growth of the broader automotive market.
The decline in market share indicates the potential vulnerability of the demand for plug-in hybrid systems, where growth is driven more by incentives than by consumer appeal.
Benjamin Kibies, senior automotive analyst at Dataforce, said: "The fate of PHEVs is closely tied to the tax system. ”
PHEVs combine a traditional hybrid powertrain with a larger battery to increase all-electric range. This increased all-electric range pays off handsomely in the official emissions test cycle at very low CO2 emission figures, making cars with this technology eligible for purchase subsidies and tax incentives in some countries, while also helping automakers meet their CO2 emissions targets per vehicle.
Still, some lawmakers are skeptical of PHEVs, and they have seen evidence from sources such as the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) that cars using plug-in hybrid technology emit much more CO2 in real life than they did in their WLTP tests.
An ICCT report last year said that PHEVs emit three to five times more CO2 than official figures, especially for corporate vehicles, which run on battery power only 11 to 15 percent of the time, compared to 70 to 85 percent of the time assumed by the WLTP emissions test.
Germany's decision to remove the purchase subsidy for new plug-in hybrid vehicles from 5,625 euros to 6,750 euros from the beginning of the year has led to a sharp drop in sales in the country's PHEV market, with sales of PHEVs in Germany falling by nearly 80,000 units in the first eight months of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 42%, according to Dataforce data (see table below).
"Evidence from Germany suggests that without incentives, the associated market demand would be much lower," Kibbis said. ”
Germany does not currently provide direct subsidies for PHEVs, but will make them more attractive than gasoline-only vehicles by reducing the purchase tax or lowering the corporate vehicle tax based on the low CO2 emission figures.
France, which has the second-largest sales volume of PHEVs, has exempted plug-in hybrids and BEVs from weight-based purchase tax.
The UK is the third largest plug-in hybrid market in Europe, and it offers companies or drivers who buy plug-in hybrid vehicles a significant discount on corporate vehicle tax.
Belgium, the fourth-largest country in terms of sales, also offers a tax discount on corporate vehicles, where PHEV sales increased by 79% as of August, surpassing Italy. Belgium has a market share of 20% for PHEVs, which is tied with Finland for the second largest market share among European countries, while Sweden has a market share of 21% (see table below).
Corporate vehicles are the main driver of PHEV demand, with private car purchases falling by 18% in the first eight months, accounting for just a quarter of total sales, according to Dataforce.
During this period, almost all of the growth in PHEV sales came from fleets, which accounted for half of total sales, with manufacturers and dealers accounting for a combined 15% share of pre-registrations. The proportion of companies engaged in the daily rental business reached 6.4%.
Diesel cars have been the most popular model for fleet drivers for many years, and as demand for diesel vehicles shrinks, automakers have introduced new PHEVs as an alternative.
Despite the challenges faced by PHEVs, automakers are introducing new models with plug-in hybrid systems, including the Mazda CX-60
The Volkswagen and Skoda brands, which are part of the Volkswagen Group, recently announced four new vehicles based on the improved MQB Evo platform: the Volkswagen compact SUV Tiguan, the midsize sedan Passat, the Skoda midsize sedan Kodiak and the new PHEV version of the midsize sedan Supai.
Equipped with a 1.5-litre petrol engine and a large 19.7 kWh battery, the new cars have an all-electric range of up to 100 kilometers and can also be fast-charged at up to 50 kilowatts, compared to conventional PHEVs that can only be used for AC slow charging.
Other new PHEVs include the BMW 2 Series Active Tourer station wagon and eight SUVs: Alfa Romeo Tonale, Peugeot 408, Lexus RX, Honda CR-V, Mazda CX-60, BMW XM, Range Rover and Jeep Grand Cherokee.
Despite the challenges faced by PHEVs, automakers are introducing new models equipped with plug-in hybrid systems.
Martin Jahn, Skoda's head of sales and marketing, estimates that the new version of the Kodiak PHEV will account for 10 to 30 percent of sales. He recently told Automotive News Europe: "The hot sales of PHEVs are really driven by incentives, but government support is decreasing. ”
For other automakers, the percentage is much higher.
The Ford Kuga PHEV, which accounts for 44% of sales in the model lineup, is a key element of Ford's strategy to meet its fleet average CO2 target, as the company's Explorer electric compact SUV will not go into production until the summer of 2024.
The Volvo XC60 PHEV became the best-selling luxury PHEV in Europe in the first eight months of the year, ranking second in overall sales in the region
The Volvo XC60 PHEV accounts for 43% of the model range's sales, and the fourth-best-selling Mercedes-Benz GLC PHEV accounts for 35% of the model's family sales. The second-best-selling Lynk & Co 01 is only available as a PHEV in Europe.
Automakers are pushing for larger batteries and fast charging capabilities for PHEVs, in part in response to the threat of the European Union to reassess emissions testing, which has forced automakers to report actual fuel economy data for cars on the road.
Last year, the EU said it would reduce the so-called "utilization factor" used by regulators to calculate emissions, starting in 2025, taking more into account how cars are on the road, and no further information has been released from the bloc.
If PHEVs reduce the CO2 average, combined with subsidies and tax incentives, automakers can offset the additional costs of adding large batteries and electric drivetrains to internal combustion engines.
Once the average CO2 emissions of PHEVs rise above 50 g/km due to the proposed changes in emissions testing, the advantages of PHEVs are lost. "If the EU decides to adopt a more realistic approach to measuring CO2 emissions, then the demand for PHEVs will collapse," Kibbis said. ”