The Kokang Allied Army in northern Myanmar has been fighting against the Tatmadaw and the four Kokang families for more than a week, and it is progressing quite smoothly, seizing more than 100 strongholds of the Tatmadaw army and local militias, capturing large areas of land, and heading directly at Lao Cai, the capital of Kokang.
This time, the Kokang Alliance, whether in terms of tactics or weapons and equipment, is refreshing, and it is completely different from our inherent impression of it.
In particular, it has been quite successful in the selection of timing and the creation of public opinion. Just because of the banner of anti-wire fraud, the Chinese people have a good impression of it, and many people believe that the weapons of the Kokang Alliance must come from the East! There are even plain eyes that say that these weapons have 81 bars, 40 firearms, drones, and even "far ahead" satellite talk mobile phones, and even tanks and armored vehicles.
But after a closer analysis, we found that this is definitely not the case.
First of all, let's take a look at the fraud parks in northern Myanmar are mainly concentrated in Myawadi, Kokang, Wabang, Tachili, Mongla and other places, these places almost have one thing in common, the control of the Myanmar government is very low, basically controlled by the local ethnic autonomous forces, and there are few large-scale wire fraud parks in the places controlled by the Myanmar government army. So the backers behind the wire fraud are not the Burmese junta, but the local armed forces, including the four major families in Kokang Old Cai.
For a long time, many people believed that the local armed forces in northern Myanmar had a certain connection with the East, and that the purpose was to use the local armed forces in northern Myanmar to contain the military junta in Burma. At the same time, Myanmar is an important node on the Belt and Road Initiative, and a stable and united Myanmar is more in line with the interests of the East. After all, who wants war on the edge of their country. The August 8 incident in 2009, when the Myanmar military attacked the Kokang allies, did not see the allies pick up equipment in the mountains, which is a good example. Besides, if the local armed forces in northern Myanmar have a certain connection with the East, and they do such things as wire fraud that endanger the East, this is also self-contradictory and inconsistent with common sense.
At the same time, the Kokang Allied Army is also part of the local armed forces in northern Burma, and it is also notorious in history, although it was forced by international pressure to eradicate drugs for a time, but later vigorously developed the gambling industry in Kokang, which is no less harmful to the East than the current electric fraud. Cultivating such a local armed force to combat electric fraud is tantamount to training jackals to fight skunks. When the jackal succeeds, it will become an even greater danger. With the wisdom of the East, this will not be ununderstood.
Second, such actions have also undermined official relations with Myanmar, which has always been relatively delicate in handling Sino-US relations, and the country is divided into two factions, pro-East and pro-American, and they are fiercely fighting with each other.
At the same time, some time ago, China, Burma, Thailand, and Laos jointly cracked down on fraud, and positive results have been achieved, for example, the Wa State arrested and transferred thousands of wire fraudsters, and even handed over several big leaders, including the deputy commander-in-chief of the Burmese Wa State Coalition Army. Although the four major families of Kokang Old Street are relatively slippery, their actions are relatively lagging behind, and the solution is also under control, and there is no need to rely on other forces. However, at this time, the Kokang Allied Army came out under the banner of cracking down on wire fraud, and it can be said that it is very good at judging the situation. The so-called anti-wire fraud "begging for thieves" is nothing more than pulling the banner of the tiger, and in the final analysis, it is still for the purpose of grabbing the sphere of influence.
From the above, it can be analyzed that the source of weapons of the Kokang Allied Army is certainly not from the East, but it is also an indisputable fact that it has obtained a large amount of equipment. Where does that come from?
In line with the principle of who invests and who profits, combined with two recent news, may be able to give you the answer.
On October 31, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against Myanmar's oil and gas company, MOGE, amid a stalemate in northern Myanmar. The reason for the US sanctions is that MOGE is one of the main sources of income for the Myanmar military, and the funds are used to purchase military equipment and armaments, and the United States has imposed sanctions in order to contain the Myanmar military.
On October 27, the day of the war, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning held a regular press conference. Regarding the conflict in northern Myanmar, Mao Ning said: China is highly concerned about the relevant conflict, and calls on relevant parties to cease fire and cease fighting as soon as possible, adhere to dialogue and consultation, resolve differences in a peaceful way, avoid escalation, and take practical and effective measures to ensure the security and stability of the China-Myanmar border.
One side wants to destabilize the situation in Myanmar, and the other side hopes for regional peace and makes a judgment.
For a long time, it has been a common means of the United States to curb the development of the East by messing up the situation in Myanmar and adding blockage to the East's Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia. Supporting local armed forces against national governments is also a common tactic of the United States, and the source of weapons for the Kokang allies is already clear.
Finally, since it is now known who supplied weapons to the Kokang Alliance, why Chinese-style weapons? Two reasons: affordable, easy to obtain.
Southeast Asian countries, whether they are government forces or local armed forces, like Chinese products in terms of light weapons, because they are extremely cost-effective, the price of an 81-bar is comparable to AK47, but the performance is far superior to AK. After the Eastern Army was fully reequipped with 95, 81 bars were exported in large quantities, with a total of more than 4 million, which was very easy to obtain. At the same time, it can also be seen from the pictures that the UAVs of the Kokang Alliance are also modified from civilian UAVs, not the standard weapons of the East.