The center sets the tone! Regarding the property market and the stock market, the very signal is coming| Macro & Finance
Author | City Finance
Editor-in-charge | Han Weiye
Comment//
In the past two days, Beijing has convened a five-year central financial work conference to summarize the financial work in the past five years and formulate a plan for financial development in the next five years. It means that about the property market and the stock market, the very signal is coming!
The determination to build a financial powerhouse
The summary of the meeting in the past five years is as follows: the financial system has strongly supported the overall situation of economic and social development, resolutely fought the battle to prevent and resolve major risks, and made important contributions to building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way as scheduled and realizing the first centenary goal.
Interpretation of this number:
Finance, simply and crudely explained, is money. The three most important elements for the development of a society, people, technology and capital, are indispensable.
People are the foundation, both the factor and the purpose of development. Technology is the means, and without this means, there is no way to start development. Capital is fuel, and no matter how advanced a machine is, it cannot turn without energy supply.
Therefore, building a financial power is the dream of every country.
The United States is strong because it is a world leader in all three elements. The United States has attracted some of the world's top talents, the United States has the most advanced science and technology in the world, and the United States is also a super financial power.
China is also moving in this direction and has already achieved good results. We have Hong Kong, one of the world's four major financial centers, and Shanghai, an international financial center.
At the same time, there are two major financial giants in Beijing and Shenzhen. In the latest ranking of the world's top 10 financial centers, Hong Kong is third, Shanghai is fifth, and Beijing is ninth.
Three of the 10 cities are in China, three in the United States, and one each in the United Kingdom, Singapore, Japan, and France.
The meeting once again clearly emphasized the determination to build a financial power, and proposed to enhance the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai as an international financial center, and consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center.
This is the need of the times and the need of the Chinese nation's century-old dream of rejuvenation.
Prevent and mitigate risks
Finance is the blood of the national economy and an important part of the country's core competitiveness, so it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a financial power, comprehensively strengthen financial supervision, improve the financial system, optimize financial services, prevent and resolve risks, unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, promote the high-quality development of the mainland's finance, and provide strong support for comprehensively promoting the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization.
Interpretation of this number:
The core theme of this passage is "prevention and mitigation of risks".
Risk prevention is an eternal theme. It is also an urgent matter of attention in the current macro environment.
At present, China is facing a big problem, and the impact of the real estate cold market on the financial system needs to be guarded against, and the impact of local debt pressure also needs to be guarded against.
As for the financial risks that may be brought about by real estate, since last year, the central and local governments have been remedying them through various measures.
Including a series of measures such as interest rate cuts, tax cuts, subsidies for house purchases, relaxation of purchase restrictions, and down payment reductions.
These measures, in the real estate has now entered the era of black iron, major changes in the supply and demand of real estate in the country, the loss of confidence and expectations under the macroeconomic environment, in the context of shrinking income, it is difficult to reverse the situation, but it is indeed effective in preventing a hard landing of real estate.
To put it bluntly, the comprehensive bailout since last year is actually to support the soft landing of the property market and avoid a hard landing.
On the issue of resolving local debts, although the previous official attitude was that whoever had children would take them, now many localities are unable to repay them on their own.
In this context, in order to crack the local debt, the government has approved the local government to start issuing special refinancing bonds to ease the pressure of local triangular debt, mainly to repay the government's debts to enterprises.
At present, the total scale of issuance in various places has exceeded 1 trillion.
In August, a weekly article published by Caixin, "How to Digest Local Debts", revealed a piece of news:
The central bank and financial institutions will participate in the debt package, which will include arranging special refinancing bonds of about 1.5 trillion yuan, but there will be some costs to be paid in one of the southwestern provinces that have received more special refinancing bonds, including a 20% reduction in civil servants.
From this point of view, there are still nearly 500 billion special refinancing bonds that can be issued. Moreover, there is a need for further streamlining of institutional establishments at the local level.
At the same time as the issuance of special refinancing bonds, 1 trillion national bonds also came. It is planned to use 500 billion this year and carry forward 500 billion to next year.
The treasury bonds will be mainly used for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, key flood control projects, natural disaster emergency response capacity improvement projects, other key flood control projects, irrigation area construction and renovation and key soil erosion control projects, urban drainage and flood prevention capacity improvement actions, key natural disaster comprehensive prevention and control system construction projects, and high-standard farmland construction in the northeast region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Shouzhi region.
The purpose is to give money to the local government to promote the construction of large infrastructure, promote local economic development, stimulate consumption and employment, and alleviate the pressure on the local economy, so as to achieve the purpose of alleviating debt pressure.
Strengthen the certainty of economic recovery
Efforts should be made to do a good job in the current key work in the financial field, increase policy implementation and work promotion, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, continue to reduce financing costs, activate the capital market, better support the expansion of domestic demand, promote the stabilization of foreign trade and foreign investment, strengthen financial support for new technologies, new tracks and new markets, and accelerate the cultivation of new momentum and new advantages.
Interpretation of this number:
This passage is relatively informative.
1. Maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity and reducing financing costs means that monetary easing will continue in the future, and RRR and interest rate cuts will continue.
The aim, of course, is to strengthen the certainty of economic recovery.
On July 24, the Politburo meeting summarized and characterized the economy in the first half of the year:
At present, the economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to the lack of domestic demand, the operational difficulties of some enterprises, the many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and the complex and severe external environment. After the smooth transition of epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery is a process of wave-like development and tortuous progress. The mainland's economy has tremendous resilience and potential for development, and the fundamentals of long-term positive conditions have not changed.
To put it simply, under the four major obstacles of insufficient domestic demand, business difficulties, many risks and hidden dangers, and a complex and severe external environment, our next recovery is not a broad road, but a small road.
In the first three quarters, our economy grew faster than expected, reaching 5.2%. The main driving force is the recovery of consumption.
Judging from the contribution rate of the three major needs to economic growth announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the largest contribution to economic growth in the third quarter was final consumption expenditure, which reached 94.8 percent, the highest level since the data began, driving the economic growth of the current quarter by 4.6 percentage points; due to the continued slowdown in investment growth, the contribution rate of gross capital formation to economic growth fell to 22.3 percent from 32.8 percent in the second quarter, driving GDP growth by 1.1 percentage points; and the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to economic growth was -17.1 percent , pulling down GDP by 0.8 percentage points.
The driving force of investment is weakening, the driving force of exports is even more negative, and there is also uncertainty about the driving force of consumption. Therefore, the road to recovery still needs to be escorted, and policy efforts are still needed.
2. Activate the capital market and benefit the stock market.
The capital market has become the main driving force for the development of China's economy, science and technology, and industries.
With the major changes in the supply and demand structure of the real estate market, the urbanization and real estate economy in the past are switching tracks, where to turn?
Liu Xiaobo, a financial expert, believes that the country is committed to economic transformation, from the "era of printing money" to the "era of printing stocks", from the model of "currency over-issuance + indirect financing + urbanization + real estate + large infrastructure" to the mode of "controlling the growth rate of M2 + direct financing (capital market) + IPO registration system reform + scientific and technological innovation".
In fact, this transformation began as early as the pilot registration system and the establishment of the science and technology innovation board in Shanghai, but later encountered a black swan, disrupting the plan and tactical execution, but the strategic direction has never changed.
This strategic direction will become a long-term belief in A-shares.
Build a new model of real estate development
Promote the virtuous cycle of finance and real estate, improve the main supervision system and capital supervision of real estate enterprises, improve the macro-prudential management of real estate finance, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, make good use of the policy toolbox according to the city's policies, better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, accelerate the construction of "three major projects" such as affordable housing, and build a new model of real estate development.
Interpretation of this number:
Since the three red lines, financial support for real estate has weakened, but a series of problems have made the policy hesitate again.
Since the second half of last year, finance has once again increased its support for the real estate market. Although we want to get rid of the dependence on the real estate economy, risk control is more important, so we can only take it slowly.
Since the beginning of this year, real estate financing channels have been relaxed, especially for central and state-owned enterprises. It will continue to be relaxed in the future. Of course, under the rule of 28, it is always a handful of people who enjoy the benefits.
Therefore, although the financing channels of real estate enterprises are relaxed, it cannot change the reality that most real estate companies will be cleared.
At the same time, in order to support the housing needs of working families who cannot afford to buy a house, the central government deliberated and adopted the "Guiding Opinions on Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing" at the end of August, and a new round of housing reform officially opened.
This point was released two days ago in the "Deliberation and Approval! A new round of housing reform is coming", there is a detailed analysis.
To put it simply, most cities in China may move towards the Singapore model in the future, delineating two circles for future real estate, one for commercial housing and one for affordable housing.
Affordable housing guarantees that people who can't afford commercial housing to live in, and commercial housing allows rich people to play, of course, it must also be based on stability.
Moreover, the affordable housing must implement strict closed management, and it is forbidden to change the affordable housing into commercial housing into the market in any way and in violation of laws and regulations. Affordable housing purchased by wage earners shall not be idle for a long time. If it has been idle for a long time, it is really necessary to transfer, or it is necessary to leave the government organs, institutions or enterprises due to resignation and other reasons, the local governments shall repurchase them in accordance with regulations.